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Where would we be without John Means?

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5 hours ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Seems stupid to value a pick that might be a #3-#5 starter over a pick you’ve already developed into a #3-#5 starter.

In the first place, I didn't say anything about drafting a pitcher at #1, so your argument seems a little stupid. I also didn't say anything about replacing Means with a pitcher drafted #1 next year(if that's the route the O's go). Also, if the O's would take a pitcher, how do you know that he won't develop into a #1 or #2 starter? 

The OP asked where the O's would be without Means. My response was based on taking away the 10 wins he has. It seems doubtful that any combination of the lousy free agent pitchers acquired this season could combine for those 10 wins. That means the O's would be in a better position to get the first pick in every round of next year's draft.

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4 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

It isn't the right fit for us now, and I wouldn't do it, but I wasn't implying it'd be extremely lopsided.  I'd just like to have a valid franchise player in 2 years, not 4, plus the Supporting Cast coalescing in our upper minors needs a cornerstone by then.

Regarding guys like Means and Keller, the burden of proof that they're good stays on them more than one season.  I'm thrilled with what we've seen this year of course, but he still isn't a Top 3 starter in the good 2022 team of my imagining.  Next year awaits the Ballard Horizon.

I agree. I keep thinking of Joe Charbenneau and Mark Fidrych. An Indian and a tiger, each one year standouts on perennially bad teamsAn Indian and a tiger, each one year standouts on perennially bad teams. I really hope John continues his upward trajectory, but he’s got to prove it.. I really hope John continues his upward trajectory, but he’s got to prove it.

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1 hour ago, panick said:

In the first place, I didn't say anything about drafting a pitcher at #1, so your argument seems a little stupid. I also didn't say anything about replacing Means with a pitcher drafted #1 next year(if that's the route the O's go). Also, if the O's would take a pitcher, how do you know that he won't develop into a #1 or #2 starter? 

The OP asked where the O's would be without Means. My response was based on taking away the 10 wins he has. It seems doubtful that any combination of the lousy free agent pitchers acquired this season could combine for those 10 wins. That means the O's would be in a better position to get the first pick in every round of next year's draft.

The goal is to get the last pick in the draft, and not the first.

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1 hour ago, panick said:

In the first place, I didn't say anything about drafting a pitcher at #1, so your argument seems a little stupid.

Let’s get one thing straight buddy— I didn’t say anything about drafting a pitcher at #1 either. What in the world are you on about?

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Means is the kind of pitcher who has figured a lot out this year and now very well could really continue to jump in value even more as he refines, repeats, adjusts...a true craftsman. 

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6 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The literal response is that in games he starts the Orioles are 10-14.  In all other games they're 37-84 (*.306).  So if they played .306 ball all the time they'd be 44-101 instead of 47-98. So about three wins worse.

Coincidentally, the average of his fWAR and rWAR is about three wins or so.

Arguably, worse, because our “average” starting pitcher in the non-Means games includes Bundy and (when he was here) Cashner, whereas the next-best starter available if Means was gone would be at the Brooks/Blach/Eshelman/Hess level, or worse.   

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7 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The literal response is that in games he starts the Orioles are 10-14.  In all other games they're 37-84 (*.306).  So if they played .306 ball all the time they'd be 44-101 instead of 47-98. So about three wins worse.

Coincidentally, the average of his fWAR and rWAR is about three wins or so.

His record is 10-10 and they won the game he started yesterday, so at least 11 wins from him.

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14 minutes ago, jerios55 said:

His record is 10-10 and they won the game he started yesterday, so at least 11 wins from him.

He was non-decision in his last game'   Armstrong picked up the win in relief.

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25 minutes ago, thezeroes said:

He was non-decision in his last game'   Armstrong picked up the win in relief.

Yes, meaning the os are better than 10-14 when Means pitches.

Probably just not updated where he was looking.

Interesting that he had a decision 10 for 10 before yesterday.

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Means is screwing us out of the number one pick.  And he likely will not be good next season.  Look at his minor league stats....there is nothing to give you any clue he would be this good.  None of his minor league seasons are this good.  Likely he reverts to norm and is another Dave Johnson or Milaki.   One and done.  

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19 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Means is not a free agent until 2025. I would MUCH rather have a controlled MLB #2-3 +4 WAR starting pitcher plus the #2 or #3 pick than the #1 pick.

But would you rather have 4 WAR when we’re losing 110 or would you rather have the chance at 4+ WAR for 6.5 seasons when we’re ready to compete?  

Means is a great story. The dude didn’t need some nerd to tell him to use analytics. He went and did that 3rd party himself last offseason. 

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1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

But would you rather have 4 WAR when we’re losing 110 or would you rather have the chance at 4+ WAR for 6.5 seasons when we’re ready to compete?  

Means is a great story. The dude didn’t need some nerd to tell him to use analytics. He went and did that 3rd party himself last offseason. 

Means has plenty of control left. We will be competitive before he hits free agency, book it.

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19 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

Next year awaits the Ballard Horizon.

In '89 Jeff Ballard had 62 strikeouts and 18 wins.  If there was ever a better foreshadowing of future collapse I've never seen it.  Means has a passable strikeout rate, he's no Jeff Ballard.

Others in similar situations to Ballard (15+ wins, <70 Ks): Steve Kline (early 70s Yanks), the next year he went 4-7.  Bill Lee, next year he 4-6.  Jack Billingham was 10-7 the next year, but was out of baseball the following season.  Ballard, 2-11.  Larry Sorensen was pretty effective the following year, but had an 87 ERA+ the rest of his career.  Doc Ellis lasted three more years with a below .500 record and an 89 ERA+.  Scott McGregor had a 4.81 ERA and led the league in homers allowed in '85.  Allen Anderson 12-25 the rest of his career.  Andy Hawkins, 5-12 the next season.

Ballard was obviously unsustainable.  Means isn't the same pitcher.

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16 hours ago, Philip said:

The goal is to get the last pick in the draft, and not the first.

Not next year.

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