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Greg Pappas

What will Villar's trade value be this off-season?

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I like Villar. I don't like Villar on a team that barely wins 50 games. Trade him if the right return is there. Otherwise hold on to him through 2020. No extensions needed. He'll be 29 in 2020. A lot of his value is from his legs. That will decline.

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1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

There is ZERO chance they get that type of return for Villar. Zero. And they're not getting it at the deadline either. You're asking for a Machado like return just to put things in context. 

Villar's surplus value is maybe $6-8M.  You're not getting six years each of two reasonably good prospects for that.  You might get one guy ranked #10 in a decent farm system.

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18 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Villar's surplus value is maybe $6-8M.  You're not getting six years each of two reasonably good prospects for that.  You might get one guy ranked #10 in a decent farm system.

I'd be after one Organizational top 10, one 20-30, and a lottery ticket. If no one wants to pay that then keep him on a modest 2-3 year deal at 5.5-6.5 per.

 

i saw the Indians mentioned....Perhaps Bracho, Civale, and a 18 year old international kid

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1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

I'd be after one Organizational top 10, one 20-30, and a lottery ticket. If no one wants to pay that then keep him on a modest 2-3 year deal at 5.5-6.5 per.

 

i saw the Indians mentioned....Perhaps Bracho, Civale, and a 18 year old international kid

So you're basically committing to just keeping Villar if that's your asking price. It's like saying your Honda Civic is for sale and then listing an asking price of $50,000. And why wouldn't the Indians just try to convert one of their SS prospects to 2B? And they could use Mike Freeman to bridge the gap. He's been pretty solid in limited action (.368 OBP). 

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1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Villar's surplus value is maybe $6-8M.  You're not getting six years each of two reasonably good prospects for that.  You might get one guy ranked #10 in a decent farm system.

 

Even that seems like a stretch to me. I'm just hard pressed to believe there's going to be a demand for Villar until I actually see it or hear it. I can't recall a single trade rumor surrounding him since his been an Oriole. 

 

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23 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

 

Even that seems like a stretch to me. I'm just hard pressed to believe there's going to be a demand for Villar until I actually see it or hear it. I can't recall a single trade rumor surrounding him since his been an Oriole. 

 

I believe his actual production as measured by tangible metrics, contract situation, and age over a general feeling that he's not a winner.

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26 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

 

Even that seems like a stretch to me. I'm just hard pressed to believe there's going to be a demand for Villar until I actually see it or hear it. I can't recall a single trade rumor surrounding him since his been an Oriole. 

 

That doesn’t seem like too much of a stretch to me.   We certainly traded guys who were in the bottom half of our top 10 for rentals of less than a year on several occasions.    

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9 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

 And one more thing, Villar's OPS+ is 109. With offense up in MLB his stats don't look as good when they are normalized against league average and ballpark effects. 

I see your point, but he had a similarly good season four years ago and a decent one last year. I don't think you can blame it all on this year's increase.

6 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

So Villar is a player who can only produce when he gets 500+ ABs? That's interesting because PLENTY of players have been able to post good numbers in small sample sizes over time. Again, this whole back and forth isn't so much as a knock against Villar as it is a knock against you suggesting we sign him to a 2-3 year deal. We can argue all day about whether or not Villar is a good player (or will continue to be one), but there is no scenario in which it makes sense to give him a 2-3 year deal. 

lol.. No, Villar is a player who improved and fought his way into a starting role and has not yet relinquished it in four seasons. It took him awhile to get going which also happens to PLENTY of players. I also wouldn't consider this an argument since the only points you can come up with are demonstrably false and sensationalized to fit your "Villar is bad" narrative. I also do not think a 2/12 deal would be a bad one, but at the very least, there is no reason to be in all this hurry to get rid of him. He has put up a 10.4 WAR over the last four seasons as an every day player which may still change before the end of this one. I would not consider that "bad" at all.

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5 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

So you're basically committing to just keeping Villar if that's your asking price. It's like saying your Honda Civic is for sale and then listing an asking price of $50,000. And why wouldn't the Indians just try to convert one of their SS prospects to 2B? And they could use Mike Freeman to bridge the gap. He's been pretty solid in limited action (.368 OBP). 

 

What an exaggerated comparison. Nice try though!

If you can't get fair value keep him. Fair value isn't somebody else's trash.

In most systems a guy ranked 20-30 is still a long shot. 

 

I suggested Bracho (18 year old Dominican SS) he's their 12th best prospect according to MLB. Civale ranks 24th and is likely a reliever in the majors at best.. The 3rd guy is likely a 17-18 year old throw away.

Hardly premium value IMO for a 2-3 war everyday 2B. In his prime

 

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43rd highest WAR on mlb.com. He’s going to make $8 million on a 50 win team. He’s at peak value. He has the ability to play a premium position. Some team will value that and give us something. Peak value = trade, at this point. 

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On 9/16/2019 at 6:40 AM, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I think the trade market for Villar is going to be limited. A playoff team looks at Villar's defense and base running, and they see him as a player who will run into the last out of a playoff series. Or make the errant throw or miss a ground ball that gets through for the go ahead run.

Villar has value, but the question is would the return in a trade be enough to justify paying him $7M or $8M in 2020. And one more thing, Villar's OPS+ is 109. With offense up in MLB his stats don't look as good when they are normalized against league average and ballpark effects.  

 

I don't think his baserunning would ever be considered a liability.  He's tops in the majors in baserunning runs according to fangraphs, and over 2018-2019, he's 6th in the majors.  For all the times he runs himself into an out he generates a lot more runs.  I think you have a reasonable argument regarding his defense, but he's not terrible there.

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10 hours ago, Hallas said:

I don't think his baserunning would ever be considered a liability.  He's tops in the majors in baserunning runs according to fangraphs, and over 2018-2019, he's 6th in the majors.  For all the times he runs himself into an out he generates a lot more runs.  I think you have a reasonable argument regarding his defense, but he's not terrible there.

I would keep Villar.  He is a good major league player.  We have too few of them to give them away.

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We’re going to lose 100 games in 2020. I think we should be trying to acquire as many assets for 2022 and beyond. 

These 100+ seasons are ugly, but we should be trading away guys that won’t be here in 2022+ as soon as they reach peak value. 

I do like the idea that Villar helps the lineup out tremendously. He helps Mancini. Takes pressure off anyone else having to hit lead off. Allows other players to slot into their right slots. I think Alberto could fill in though. 

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