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Greg Pappas

Three Things: An Off-season Wish List

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I have thought for a while that the plan was to get by this year with Davis on the roster and that next year at some point Davis will be at risk of being released - attempting to absorb Davis' salary among the team's payroll and regular cash flows for as long as possible.  

I don't think it will be possible much longer.  In the next year or two, Davis' roster spot will cause the Os to lose or lose out on a prospect of some value.  Writing a check next year for the balance of what is owed to Davis will be much more palatable with next year's portion counting against the next year's payroll and then possibly financing the early payment of another $45+M or so. 

I think there is a 50%-75% that Davis is released before the next Rule V draft.

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2 hours ago, wildcard said:

It makes not sense to me that Elias would spend the exact 555k to get rid of Davis.   Elias has not spent on players since he arrived.  He knows 2020 is probably a losing season.   I don't expect him to spend this off season therefore I think he is likely to save the 555k and keep Davis as long as the O's are projected to lose.  

Hopefully the pitchers who had success at Bowie and Akin can help the O's turn this pitching staff around by 2021.

If Elias spent money on aging players like Cashner and Cobb, you would complain about that. Oh yeah, you did complain about that.

Most people understand it makes little to no sense, to spend money for veterans to bring this team up to 3rd place.

Rebuild the farm system and make yourself strong to make a solid 10 year run at being good.

I think he showed that game plan with the Astros, and its a model that can be utilized here.

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This team would be watchable if we had another decent MOR SP and a couple of good RP's to go with the bevy of mediocre ones we already have.

That said if we can trade Mancini, Villar and Givens for value,. we have to do it.

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5 hours ago, Frobby said:

There’s nothing worse for a fan than having an awful bullpen that frequently blows games late.   So frustrating.   That said, if our bullpen was average, we’d probably be getting no better than the fourth pick next year, instead of probably getting the second pick.     That’s what I tell myself to calm down on nights like last night.   

Would you be OK with improving the pen next year and settling for the #4 pick in 2021?

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2 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

Would you be OK with improving the pen next year and settling for the #4 pick in 2021?

I would. And I think we will. Although "improving the pen" will come from rookies rather than offseason signings for the most part.

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5 hours ago, Frobby said:

There’s nothing worse for a fan than having an awful bullpen that frequently blows games late.   So frustrating.   That said, if our bullpen was average, we’d probably be getting no better than the fourth pick next year, instead of probably getting the second pick.     That’s what I tell myself to calm down on nights like last night.   

Middle inning relievers are relatively cheap.  Getting two or three of these type of guys won't break the bank and would make the season so much more watchable.  We are at the point that no lead is too big for our bullpen to blow.  

 

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I really think Givens has the most value next deadline (health permitting) as relief pitching always seems to have a mid-season premium as every team could use another arm or two by that point. I'd probably hang on to Mancini and Villar as well because I don't see either having that much of a market. Villar at least gives the team someone that they can stick at SS (or 2B). If he hits the way he has in the second half to open next year, he can go at the deadline, too, when Rylan Bannon could potentially come up and add another option at 2B.

For me, the big things are: (i) obviously, removing Davis from the 40-man roster however possible; (ii) clearing other dead weight from the 40-man while adding talent to the system however possible (Rule-5, waiver wires, minor trades where teams are needing to clear 40-man spots, etc); (iii) revamp the pitching leadership including replacing the pitching coach and adding a veteran leader arm in the rotation and/or bullpen that can serve as a mentor to some of the young arms. For the last one, I've heard in multiple interviews how players will often get more from veterans than the coaches because they can relate and relay the information in a different, less formal, setting.

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I'd like to see Tate develop into a solid bullpen arm.  Convince him that guys like him and Hunter Harvey are very valuable in that role in today's game.  If Ortiz is ever to have any ML value, same for him next year.  

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19 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think for a second that Elias wants him back but I'm not certain ownership will allow him to be cut.

I think the duggout issues, tense post game interviews from Hyde and playing time all point to Davis being cut after this season.

6 hours ago, wildcard said:

It makes not sense to me that Elias would spend the exact 555k to get rid of Davis.  

It makes sense if Elias values the 40th spot on the 40 man roster. I assume he has plans to churn as many guys through there as possible again next year in hopes that a couple stick. It also makes sense if you want to protect one more guy from the Rule V draft. So, yeah, it does make sense to spend $555k more to get rid of him.

5 hours ago, foxfield said:

THIS.  Yes DrungoHazewood, I agree.  I see the argument that keeping Davis this year as debatable as it was likely agreed to in the interview process.  Something along the lines of we will take a look and see if we can change anything.  But 100%, if he shows up in camp next year, it is an ownership decision.  There is no longer a baseball reason to keep him on the roster.  Period.

I could actually see Elias giving him the offseason as one last chance. Not that Elias would want to, but I could imagine ownership essentially saying that Davis should have one more offseason, knowing our new approaches, to work on his mind, body and plate approach. If he comes in and stinks, Elias would be able to cut him before the final roster.

I don't think that'll happen, but I could imagine it being the only real alternative to cutting him before the Rule V protections are due. I cannot imagine him being kept on the ML roster next season.

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1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

 

It makes sense if Elias values the 40th spot on the 40 man roster. I assume he has plans to churn as many guys through there as possible again next year in hopes that a couple stick. It also makes sense if you want to protect one more guy from the Rule V draft. So, yeah, it does make sense to spend $555k more to get rid of him.

I could actually see Elias giving him the offseason as one last chance. Not that Elias would want to, but I could imagine ownership essentially saying that Davis should have one more offseason, knowing our new approaches, to work on his mind, body and plate approach. If he comes in and stinks, Elias would be able to cut him before the final roster.

I don't think that'll happen, but I could imagine it being the only real alternative to cutting him before the Rule V protections are due. I cannot imagine him being kept on the ML roster next season.

I don't think the O's need to cut Davis to have room on the 40 man roster for a Rule 5 guy.

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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

What if they want three again?

Right now I see 5 open spots on the 40 man roster for the Rule 5 draft.  4 if Bleier pitches well for the remainder of the season and they decide to keep him.   

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Baksheesh for buscones. It’s hard to spend international monies when the people that control the talent have been shunned by the team for years. Make nice with the shady SOBs.

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I don't pretend to know what they'll do with Davis although I saw a quote a few weeks ago that made me believe he was being given stuff to work on this offseason, which suggests to me he'll get ST and a few weeks of the regular season to show improvements have been made.

While I don't believe changes will be successful, I am a believer that swing changes like Davis needs to implement require an offseason, and aren't something that could effectively be done during the season. So, it at least makes sense to me. I don't agree, but I understand it.

But with regard to the 40 man, I would be surprised if there is not a LOT of change before opening day. Elias came in late enough that he didn't have a chance to do what he wanted last year and also needed a year to evaluate who was here.

In my opinion, we're just now reaching the time  where we see lots and lots of changes. 

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6 minutes ago, Larry18 said:

Baksheesh for buscones. It’s hard to spend international monies when the people that control the talent have been shunned by the team for years. Make nice with the shady SOBs.

I'm sure the teams have "shady SOB's" on the payroll.

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