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Next Gen stats: Ravens have one of the best pass rushing defenses so far

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The eye test vs. the next gen stats is always tough to gauge, perhaps more so in football than baseball because there are a lot more moving parts.

The pass rush could be fine, even with few sacks, but if the coverage is lacking then it all looks worse.

Places where my eyes are lying according to the stats:

PFF has Stanley ranked as a top 5 tackle and its #1 pass blocking tackle.  What I see: a pocket that is collapsing.

Matt Skura is rated as a top 5 center.  What I see:  a lot of penetration up the middle.

Ingram and Edward's are the 14/15 best RBs in the league.  What I see:  I think Edward's has been better than ingram, and I think they are both better than 14/15.

Humphrey is the #24 CB on the league.  What I see:  a guy who has to get paid.  

Where we agree.

Canady is the #11 CB in the league.  This guy has been awesome since getting more playing time.

Josh Bynes could help stabilize the LB core.  He had a good game on sunday.

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On 10/9/2019 at 8:56 AM, Aglets said:

The pass rush is ok now guys, we signed this dude:

http://www.nfl.com/player/jihadward/2555248/profile

former 2nd round pick for Oakland.     Still only 25 years old.

He hasn't had a super impressive career exactly but his wiki page details a lot of injuries for a guy drafted just 3 years ago.   Hopefully he is healthy now.

 

What a name.  Measurables are impressive.  Could be a good get if he was just a casualty of a new coach coming in.

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On 10/8/2019 at 2:10 PM, Camden_yardbird said:

The eye test vs. the next gen stats is always tough to gauge, perhaps more so in football than baseball because there are a lot more moving parts.

The pass rush could be fine, even with few sacks, but if the coverage is lacking then it all looks worse.

Places where my eyes are lying according to the stats:

PFF has Stanley ranked as a top 5 tackle and its #1 pass blocking tackle.  What I see: a pocket that is collapsing.

Matt Skura is rated as a top 5 center.  What I see:  a lot of penetration up the middle.

Ingram and Edward's are the 14/15 best RBs in the league.  What I see:  I think Edward's has been better than ingram, and I think they are both better than 14/15.

Humphrey is the #24 CB on the league.  What I see:  a guy who has to get paid.  

Where we agree.

Canady is the #11 CB in the league.  This guy has been awesome since getting more playing time.

Josh Bynes could help stabilize the LB core.  He had a good game on sunday.

I think Stanley has looked pretty darn good.  Lamqr has held on to the ball too long.

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15 hours ago, atomic said:

I think Stanley has looked pretty darn good.  Lamqr has held on to the ball too long.

I think that's not correct.  According to NFL best gen stats Lamar time to pass is 2.72 seconds, there are 20 QBs with longer times to pass.

Now you have to throw a pass for this to count, and when doesnt he tends to run so maybe that has something to do with it.  But the stat we have indicates that is not the case.

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On 10/8/2019 at 12:57 PM, atomic said:

The Ravens are 26th in the league in sacks even though they blitz all the time.  The eye test is right this next generation stat is wrong.  

Gotta agree, though that was after the first three games I think. These next gen stats are about as accurate as the "analytics" that tells Harbaugh to go for 2 down by 4.

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^^^exactly.

I mean, do we not know how stats work? This isn’t a predictive stat, it reflects what had happened to that point, which was highly influenced by Miami. I’m sure the stat would reflect very differently after these last three games.

 

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https://theathletic.com/1281876/2019/10/10/patrick-mahomes-russell-wilson-mvp-stats-breakdown/

Some additional fodder...

Team pass-rush rankings

Here we look at which teams are producing sacks and QB hits at the highest rates. Note that these numbers may vary from pressure rankings you see elsewhere. Pressure is subjective. Sacks and QB hits are not.

 

Rank Defense Sack + QBH rate
1 New England Patriots 28.23%
2 Pittsburgh Steelers 28.06%
3 New Orleans Saints 25.77%
4 San Francisco 49ers 25.50%
5 Cleveland Browns 25.00%
6 Carolina Panthers 24.42%
7 Minnesota Vikings 23.65%
8 Jacksonville Jaguars 23.20%
9 Green Bay Packers 23.15%
10 Philadelphia Eagles 22.48%
11 Los Angeles Chargers 22.44%
12 Baltimore Ravens 22.16%
13 New York Giants 21.71%
14 Houston Texans

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On 10/11/2019 at 1:34 PM, Camden_yardbird said:

I think that's not correct.  According to NFL best gen stats Lamar time to pass is 2.72 seconds, there are 20 QBs with longer times to pass.

Now you have to throw a pass for this to count, and when doesnt he tends to run so maybe that has something to do with it.  But the stat we have indicates that is not the case.

How about time held on to ball when sacked.

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24 minutes ago, atomic said:

How about time held on to ball when sacked.

I don't think it's in that calculation. Between running heavy and the sacks that you could put on Lamar the time would be skewed pretty heavily.

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17 hours ago, dorfmac said:

https://theathletic.com/1281876/2019/10/10/patrick-mahomes-russell-wilson-mvp-stats-breakdown/

Some additional fodder...

Team pass-rush rankings

Here we look at which teams are producing sacks and QB hits at the highest rates. Note that these numbers may vary from pressure rankings you see elsewhere. Pressure is subjective. Sacks and QB hits are not.

 

Rank Defense Sack + QBH rate
1 New England Patriots 28.23%
2 Pittsburgh Steelers 28.06%
3 New Orleans Saints 25.77%
4 San Francisco 49ers 25.50%
5 Cleveland Browns 25.00%
6 Carolina Panthers 24.42%
7 Minnesota Vikings 23.65%
8 Jacksonville Jaguars 23.20%
9 Green Bay Packers 23.15%
10 Philadelphia Eagles 22.48%
11 Los Angeles Chargers 22.44%
12 Baltimore Ravens 22.16%
13 New York Giants 21.71%
14 Houston Texans

That's interesting.  If our pass rush is average, then that would put most of the blame on the secondary. This probably closer reflects what I'm seeing.  I think that, in defense of the pass rush, the problems with the secondary make it hard to load up on sacks, but if they were a truly elite unit it wouldn't matter because the pressure even from a 4 man rush would be overwhelming.

Lets see how the Seahawks do against us.

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Ravens have 11 sacks through 6 games.   

Za'Darius Smith has 6, Suggs has 4.  

So we are beating the 2 of them........barely.     :(

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