Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Tony-OH

Next Gen stats: Ravens have one of the best pass rushing defenses so far

Recommended Posts

The eye test vs. the next gen stats is always tough to gauge, perhaps more so in football than baseball because there are a lot more moving parts.

The pass rush could be fine, even with few sacks, but if the coverage is lacking then it all looks worse.

Places where my eyes are lying according to the stats:

PFF has Stanley ranked as a top 5 tackle and its #1 pass blocking tackle.  What I see: a pocket that is collapsing.

Matt Skura is rated as a top 5 center.  What I see:  a lot of penetration up the middle.

Ingram and Edward's are the 14/15 best RBs in the league.  What I see:  I think Edward's has been better than ingram, and I think they are both better than 14/15.

Humphrey is the #24 CB on the league.  What I see:  a guy who has to get paid.  

Where we agree.

Canady is the #11 CB in the league.  This guy has been awesome since getting more playing time.

Josh Bynes could help stabilize the LB core.  He had a good game on sunday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/9/2019 at 8:56 AM, Aglets said:

The pass rush is ok now guys, we signed this dude:

http://www.nfl.com/player/jihadward/2555248/profile

former 2nd round pick for Oakland.     Still only 25 years old.

He hasn't had a super impressive career exactly but his wiki page details a lot of injuries for a guy drafted just 3 years ago.   Hopefully he is healthy now.

 

What a name.  Measurables are impressive.  Could be a good get if he was just a casualty of a new coach coming in.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/8/2019 at 2:10 PM, Camden_yardbird said:

The eye test vs. the next gen stats is always tough to gauge, perhaps more so in football than baseball because there are a lot more moving parts.

The pass rush could be fine, even with few sacks, but if the coverage is lacking then it all looks worse.

Places where my eyes are lying according to the stats:

PFF has Stanley ranked as a top 5 tackle and its #1 pass blocking tackle.  What I see: a pocket that is collapsing.

Matt Skura is rated as a top 5 center.  What I see:  a lot of penetration up the middle.

Ingram and Edward's are the 14/15 best RBs in the league.  What I see:  I think Edward's has been better than ingram, and I think they are both better than 14/15.

Humphrey is the #24 CB on the league.  What I see:  a guy who has to get paid.  

Where we agree.

Canady is the #11 CB in the league.  This guy has been awesome since getting more playing time.

Josh Bynes could help stabilize the LB core.  He had a good game on sunday.

I think Stanley has looked pretty darn good.  Lamqr has held on to the ball too long.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, atomic said:

I think Stanley has looked pretty darn good.  Lamqr has held on to the ball too long.

I think that's not correct.  According to NFL best gen stats Lamar time to pass is 2.72 seconds, there are 20 QBs with longer times to pass.

Now you have to throw a pass for this to count, and when doesnt he tends to run so maybe that has something to do with it.  But the stat we have indicates that is not the case.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/8/2019 at 12:57 PM, atomic said:

The Ravens are 26th in the league in sacks even though they blitz all the time.  The eye test is right this next generation stat is wrong.  

Gotta agree, though that was after the first three games I think. These next gen stats are about as accurate as the "analytics" that tells Harbaugh to go for 2 down by 4.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

^^^exactly.

I mean, do we not know how stats work? This isn’t a predictive stat, it reflects what had happened to that point, which was highly influenced by Miami. I’m sure the stat would reflect very differently after these last three games.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

https://theathletic.com/1281876/2019/10/10/patrick-mahomes-russell-wilson-mvp-stats-breakdown/

Some additional fodder...

Team pass-rush rankings

Here we look at which teams are producing sacks and QB hits at the highest rates. Note that these numbers may vary from pressure rankings you see elsewhere. Pressure is subjective. Sacks and QB hits are not.

 

Rank Defense Sack + QBH rate
1 New England Patriots 28.23%
2 Pittsburgh Steelers 28.06%
3 New Orleans Saints 25.77%
4 San Francisco 49ers 25.50%
5 Cleveland Browns 25.00%
6 Carolina Panthers 24.42%
7 Minnesota Vikings 23.65%
8 Jacksonville Jaguars 23.20%
9 Green Bay Packers 23.15%
10 Philadelphia Eagles 22.48%
11 Los Angeles Chargers 22.44%
12 Baltimore Ravens 22.16%
13 New York Giants 21.71%
14 Houston Texans

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/11/2019 at 1:34 PM, Camden_yardbird said:

I think that's not correct.  According to NFL best gen stats Lamar time to pass is 2.72 seconds, there are 20 QBs with longer times to pass.

Now you have to throw a pass for this to count, and when doesnt he tends to run so maybe that has something to do with it.  But the stat we have indicates that is not the case.

How about time held on to ball when sacked.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, atomic said:

How about time held on to ball when sacked.

I don't think it's in that calculation. Between running heavy and the sacks that you could put on Lamar the time would be skewed pretty heavily.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, dorfmac said:

https://theathletic.com/1281876/2019/10/10/patrick-mahomes-russell-wilson-mvp-stats-breakdown/

Some additional fodder...

Team pass-rush rankings

Here we look at which teams are producing sacks and QB hits at the highest rates. Note that these numbers may vary from pressure rankings you see elsewhere. Pressure is subjective. Sacks and QB hits are not.

 

Rank Defense Sack + QBH rate
1 New England Patriots 28.23%
2 Pittsburgh Steelers 28.06%
3 New Orleans Saints 25.77%
4 San Francisco 49ers 25.50%
5 Cleveland Browns 25.00%
6 Carolina Panthers 24.42%
7 Minnesota Vikings 23.65%
8 Jacksonville Jaguars 23.20%
9 Green Bay Packers 23.15%
10 Philadelphia Eagles 22.48%
11 Los Angeles Chargers 22.44%
12 Baltimore Ravens 22.16%
13 New York Giants 21.71%
14 Houston Texans

That's interesting.  If our pass rush is average, then that would put most of the blame on the secondary. This probably closer reflects what I'm seeing.  I think that, in defense of the pass rush, the problems with the secondary make it hard to load up on sacks, but if they were a truly elite unit it wouldn't matter because the pressure even from a 4 man rush would be overwhelming.

Lets see how the Seahawks do against us.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ravens have 11 sacks through 6 games.   

Za'Darius Smith has 6, Suggs has 4.  

So we are beating the 2 of them........barely.     :(

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores

News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2018 End of Season Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2019 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats







  • Posts

    • We just had two former 2nd rounders go, so I'm going with two former 1st rounders.  People are so down on Tate, I don't get it.  Ok, so he's not a SP, but he showed enough to be a solid reliever at the MLB level.  He also reached that MLB ceiling and showed that he could have success.  So no point in having A ball "relievers" ranked over him.   Sedlock had a big time bounce back year.  Over a SO an inning across two levels, while logging around 100 IP.  Next year will be a big year for him to see if he can be a SP.  Even if he's not, he's still likely got a solid chance at being a MR in the MLB.   Harvey, Tate, Sedlock, could be the core of our bullpen when we compete again.  
    • I don't agree with non-tendering Villar (and I don't think it will happen) but it's because I believe he has more value than $10M as a trade asset.  I have no problem non-tendering a guy you don't believe has value above the arb figure and replacing him with a 6 year minor league guy you believe might provide similar production. 
    • Having said all of this, I don't think we're full-on tanking. I am 100% in favor of keeping Villar and Mancini (I don't consider them to be investments, per se), and we could be far worse than we have been over the last 2 years if we really wanted to be. We're about as bad as you can be while being capable of getting 24-27 outs 162 times a year. 
    • You can be bad without tanking. Heck you can trade off expiring assets while being bad without tanking.  Yankees did it, worked out really well for them. Taking a team and tearing it down to a bare framework is not the only way to build a winner, even if you don't have unlimited payroll.  
    • I really don't consider there to be much difference between losing 94 and 104 games. Both teams are bad, and I'd imagine that at the start of a season that if Team A was projected for 104 losses and Team B was projected for 94 losses that Team B could easily finish with a worse record than Team A.  Also, the Cards and Giants are two of the best orgs in baseball. Hopefully we get to that level soon.
    • I'm sure they could.  If they had a desire to.  Neither side seems interested in that. BTW I'm not at all opposed to guys in AA and below needing to have jobs in the offseason.  I don't think someone in short season ball, for instance, should be making 32K just for playing rookie league ball.
    • I don't think your suggestion is quite the fix-all that you believe it to be. It doesn't eliminate this so-called incentive to lose.. you'd still have to be a bad team. It doesn't incentivize winning, imo. It would create a tank war between the last and next-to-last teams within most divisions for the last part of each season. It gives hope to many more teams of stealing that no. 1 overall pick.
  • Popular Contributors

  • Popular Now

×
×
  • Create New...