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Spy Fox

The Orioles have drafted the 4th most pitching WAR since 2012

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16 hours ago, Spy Fox said:

When you compare that ranking to the current Orioles pitching staff... yikes. 

The Blue Jays are ranked second on that list and their current pitching is terrible too. 

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12 hours ago, atomic said:

I have been saying people criticizing drafting during the DD era are off base.  Getting Hays and Mancini were good picks too.  Guys picked 3rd or later. 

The only criticism I have with Rajsich is his selection of position players in the early rounds. But he still was able to nab Mountcastle and Hays along with Christian Walker who's had a nice year in Arizona in the early rounds. The guy was a really good scouting director. I'm surprised Elias didn't bring him back. 

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8 minutes ago, TINSTAAPP said:

The only criticism I have with Rajsich is his selection of position players in the early rounds. But he still was able to nab Mountcastle and Hays along with Christian Walker who's had a nice year in Arizona in the early rounds. The guy was a really good scouting director. I'm surprised Elias didn't bring him back. 

I’m not surprised at all.   Elias was a strong scouting director himself, and will want a guy who does things his way.     

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3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m not surprised at all.   Elias was a strong scouting director himself, and will want a guy who does things his way.     

Teams do so poorly in the draft that if you can find anyone that has success you should try to hang on to them.  Astor's had years where they totally whiffed on every pick under Elias.  For example the 2013 draft.  And they were picking first in every round.  

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38 minutes ago, atomic said:

Teams do so poorly in the draft that if you can find anyone that has success you should try to hang on to them.  Astor's had years where they totally whiffed on every pick under Elias.  For example the 2013 draft.  And they were picking first in every round.  

I think most teams have very qualified people running their draft operations, and there is no shortage of people who could do the job well.  But the nature of the draft is that you're taking partly-developed young talent including pitchers with terrifyingly high attrition rates, so the overall hit rate for all organizations is fairly low.  Just by random chance any team will get drafts with very little talent that makes it to the majors.

It's like the people who try to convince you that they've beaten the stock market so you should buy into their fund.  Given 1000s of funds you'd expect some to beat the market by dumb luck, even over many years.  I'm not convinced anyone has the secret sauce.  There is no secret sauce in drafting or picking stocks, so you don't need to worry about hanging onto the supposed guru who happened to have some good years.

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