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Dan Duquette did pretty well with July 2018 trades

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16 hours ago, Hallas said:

Sure, but do we blame Thrift for Brea in particular?

I think we can blame Thrift for acquiring a mediocre player, but I guess a high K, high-walk guy who you think is 21 has some upside.

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17 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not sure you got my total point.  I think you are, to some degree, looking at the return through the prism of today's game.  I think guys like the O's traded were more highly valued back in the day.

Perhaps.  it was the height of the PED era, and many oldtimers hadn't gotten around to reading/accepting the findings that MLBers peak around 27, which had been published 15-20 years prior.  Some GMs probably assumed 35-year-old BJ Surhoff would be a really good LFer for many years to come.

As late as 2015-16 my contracts calculator worked very well with no age inputs at all. Meaning that most GMs signed 34-year-olds like they were 27.

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10 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Perhaps.  it was the height of the PED era, and many oldtimers hadn't gotten around to reading/accepting the findings that MLBers peak around 27, which had been published 15-20 years prior.  Some GMs probably assumed 35-year-old BJ Surhoff would be a really good LFer for many years to come.

As late as 2015-16 my contracts calculator worked very well with no age inputs at all. Meaning that most GMs signed 34-year-olds like they were 27.

A bit of a tangent, but I get the sense that GMs are over-prioritizing youth to the extent that some 28-30 year olds with some quality mileage left can be had for a bit of a bargain, especially in the trade market.

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12 hours ago, Hallas said:

A bit of a tangent, but I get the sense that GMs are over-prioritizing youth to the extent that some 28-30 year olds with some quality mileage left can be had for a bit of a bargain, especially in the trade market.

GM like copying others GM actions. 1 GM dumster drives, then many others quickly follow as they see it a way to put cheap bodies on their roster.

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1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

@Luke-OH or anyone else, what’s your take on these two guys,

3B Encarnacion(21) .648 OPS in Delmarva

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=encarn000jea

SS Jean Carmona(19) .561 OPS in Aberdeen in only 25 games.

 https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=carmon000jea

Encarnacion definitely looks the part, you see him on a good day and I wouldn't blame anyone thinking he's a top 10 prospect in the system. There are a bunch of above average tools and good bat speed. It's the skills part of baseball that is holding him back. His footwork can get wonky at 3B and is the cause of most of his errors, but it is improved and I think he'll be an average glove there eventually. The big issue is a poor approach and terrible pitch recognition. He's a total guess hitter, he can hit spin if he's sitting on it, but it's a total guess style, he doesn't adjust or waste pitches and sometimes he gets caught in between which is even worse. I'm concerned that those are things that don't usually improve out of nowhere. But the ceiling is still average to above average regular, but it's a really low probability outcome and the floor is not making it out of AA. 

Carmona looked good at 2B the few games I watched and he still has quick hands and good bat speed, but the swing mechanics are still a mess. He's rarely loaded and ready to attack on time which leads to weak contact and rolling over on pitches frequently. I'm not sure why he played so sparingly, so it's possible an injury hindered his performance. The ceiling isn't quite as high as Encarnacion, but his issues are more fixable IMO. 

These guys have pretty serious flaws and neither fits the definition of hitterish, so they'll be a good test of the Orioles new player development machine, it'd be a good sign if they could get one of these two straightened out. 

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On 10/16/2019 at 8:10 PM, Hallas said:

A bit of a tangent, but I get the sense that GMs are over-prioritizing youth to the extent that some 28-30 year olds with some quality mileage left can be had for a bit of a bargain, especially in the trade market.

Duquette built a playoff team with guys like this. Miguel Gonzalez, Nate McLouth, Delmon Young, Brad Brach, etc. 

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2 hours ago, interloper said:

Duquette built a playoff team with guys like this. Miguel Gonzalez, Nate McLouth, Delmon Young, Brad Brach, etc. 

IMO

Duquette added players to a team Andy had started building, Tillman, Jones, Hardy, etc

The combination of actions of both of their part, is the reason, they were the best record for 5 years in the AL.

 

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