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wildcard

Dan Duquette did pretty well with July 2018 trades

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12 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You seen to be making it personal  between GMs. That not what I am suggesting.   I think its the media and the fans looking at the trades and evaluating who got better value from the trades.

Yeah, I really don't care who won or lost no matter what the situation is or who's looking at it.  Unless, like I said, a Glenn Davis situation.

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1 minute ago, weams said:

In fact, I am not certain that the Orioles would have been better off just non tendering Britton after the rupture at Boras training. Not sure how much money they could have saved.  

I don’t know if I’d go that far. He was one of the leagues top relievers and we all had hoped he could recapture that after recovering. It was a lot to pay for a half season of relief pitching but I don’t think I’d have done it differently. And I’m still harboring hope that Tate can translate his relief success to the majors.

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8 minutes ago, weams said:

In a very insignificant way. 

I don't think we know if saving 18m dollars is insignificant to Elias' player acquisition and development operation.  Or what Elias will trade Villar for.    Its could be significant or not.

However for Duquette's part I think he traded for a player with some value in Villar and he saved 18m dollars and the teams that acquired Schoop, Gausman/O'Day got very little in return.   We know that much now.

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Only Britton is still with the team to which he was traded, so, from that standpoint, the O's "won."   I'm sure it was discussed a while back what if Manny was dealt the prior offseason?   Could Dan have obtained more, at the time?  Who knows what else was offered for any of them in July?

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I think there is a very good chance that the O's win the Machado and Britton trades as well.  But some of the O's players will have to perform for that to happen.

The O's traded 2 1/2 months of Manny's service time for  Diaz, Kremer, Bannon and Pop.  Those 4 have to accumulate enough playing time and value in the majors to equal Manny service time with the Dodgers.  Manny helped the Dodgers get to the WS even if they did lose there.  The Dodgers did get some significant value from Manny.  Bur the O's were never going to pay Manny 10/300m.

The O's also traded a little over 2 months of Brittons service time for Carroll, Tate and Rogers.  So the O's have to get at least that much value at the major league level from those three players to win the trade.    The Yankees won a wild card spot but lost in the Division series.    However O's were not going to sign Britton to an extension or as a free agent.  Not with Boras as his agent.

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I have a problem with people throwing sticks at DD for not resigning Manny.

At least from my keyboard view of the situation, it sure looked at Angelos the owner was not really to come off the money required, he had zero desire to keep Manny in Oriole Orange.

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1 hour ago, wildcard said:

The full story is not written yet but the progress in 2019 with good for the O's with the players in these trades.

Machado for Diaz, Kremer, Bannon, Pop, (Valera DFA’d)

Schoop for Villar, Ortiz,  Carmona - O’s Won the trade

Britton - Carroll, Tate, Rogers

Gausman/O’Day - Phillips, Cumberland, Zimmerman,  Encarnacion, Saved 18m - O’s Won the trade  on cost savings.   

1. Villar  - 4 WAR makes him better than Schoop

2. Diaz -  O's #5 prospect. Everyday RF ETA 2nd half 2020

3. Kremer - O's #8 prospect. Starter ETA 2nd half 2020

4.  Carroll - RP Will compete for bullpen spot on OD 2020

5. Phillips - RP  Will compete for bullpen spot in 2020

6.   Bannon 2B/3B  - O's #23 prospect.  ETA late 2020/or 2021

7.  Pop  RP  O's #25 prospect.  2nd half 2021 after recovery for TJ surgery

8. Tate - RP -   O's # 26 prospect.  ETA sometime in 2020

9. Cumberland  BUC  -  O's #29 prospect. Will compete for back up catcher spot in 2021

10.  Zimmerman SP/RP  - Probably RP 2021

11. Ortiz -  SP/RP  ETA 2021 if he makes it to the majors.

12. Rogers - Probably DFA’d and outrighted to Tides where he will try to turn things around as a RP.

13.Encarnacion - O's #28 prospect?

14. Carmona - ?

Norfolk rotation of Akin, Kremer, Lowther, Wells and Baumann  will push Zimmerman,  Ortiz and Rogers to relief until some of them make the majors.

I would be shocked if Zimmermann is not in the Norfolk rotation next year. They'll give him every chance to remain as a starter.

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45 minutes ago, John Welch said:

There's an article on how the Astros trade for Greinke came together (that I can't find right now) and what stood out to me was how the D'backs and Astros valued the same prospects almost exactly the same way.  To me, the idea that "we know our guys way better than another team does" is kinda gone now. 

And yet every time the O's get three days of success out of a middling prospect there's a thread about whether or not we should trade him right now at the peak before the other teams realize what we on the messageboard already knew: that it's all a mirage.  Don't worry, if it's a mirage the 29 other teams already know.

If only we could go back to the time when you'd sign a guy because Connie Mack's son-in-law's barber saw a guy play in Davenport in the III League and he said he totally raked.

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The Schoop trade may be a gift that keeps on giving assuming Elias can works some trade magic with Villar.

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17 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think there is a very good chance that the O's win the Machado and Britton trades as well.  But some of the O's players will have to perform for that to happen.

The O's traded 2 1/2 months of Manny's service time for  Diaz, Kremer, Bannon and Pop.  Those 4 have to accumulate enough playing time and value in the majors to equal Manny service time with the Dodgers.  Manny helped the Dodgers get to the WS even if they did lose there.  The Dodgers did get some significant value from Manny.  Bur the O's were never going to pay Manny 10/300m.

The O's also traded a little over 2 months of Brittons service time for Carroll, Tate and Rogers.  So the O's have to get at least that much value at the major league level from those three players to win the trade.    The Yankees won a wild card spot but lost in the Division series.    However O's were not going to sign Britton to an extension or as a free agent.  Not with Boras as his agent.

To "win" the Manny deal the Orioles have to get more than 2.8 wins out of the players they got in return.  To win the Britton deal they have to get half a win out of Carroll, Rogers and Tate.  Extensions or new contracts have nothing to do with any of it.

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48 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yeah, I really don't care who won or lost no matter what the situation is or who's looking at it.  Unless, like I said, a Glenn Davis situation.

And if you're going to judge a trade shouldn't the baseline be "what was the consensus of the deal at the time, given what we knew then?"  For these deals it was that the O's were trading a few months of a couple guys, they'll be lucky to get any kind of real value in return.  If someone like Diaz has 2-3 good MLB seasons that's more than I would have expected for three months of anybody.

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9 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

I would be shocked if Zimmermann is not in the Norfolk rotation next year. They'll give him every chance to remain as a starter.

So will the Tides go with a 6 man rotation or will one of  Akin, Kremer, Lowther, Wells and Baumann not be in the rotation?

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4 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

To "win" the Manny deal the Orioles have to get more than 2.8 wins out of the players they got in return.  To win the Britton deal they have to get half a win out of Carroll, Rogers and Tate.  Extensions or new contracts have nothing to do with any of it.

I agree. 

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1 minute ago, wildcard said:

So will the Tides go with a 6 man rotation or will one of  Akin, Kremer, Lowther, Wells and Baumann not be in the rotation?

6 man rotation or they'll leave Baumann at Bowie until Akin is promoted.

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8 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

And yet every time the O's get three days of success out of a middling prospect there's a thread about whether or not we should trade him right now at the peak before the other teams realize what we on the messageboard already knew: that it's all a mirage.  Don't worry, if it's a mirage the 29 other teams already know.

Totally agree. It'd be more fun to believe Elias and Mejdal are smarter than everyone else and have magic tricks to where every trade they make is a big winner but with the exception of maybe a few teams, every organization has significantly improved their operation and evaluation of players.

And that'll look like collusion during the not so hot stove period but it's just a newer means of evaluating talent. 

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