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Greg Pappas

Outfield 2020... Who ya got?

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Hays' style of play with diving all over the field and testing his body against fences scares me.   He is exciting to watch but I have to wonder how long he lasts before he goes on the IL.  I'd really like to see him stay on his feet as much as possible the way Paul Blair did and Jackie Bradley Jr does.

We may see Wilkerson and Santander in center again when Hays is on the IL.   

Santander, Mountcastle, Mancini, Stewart, Smith are all guys who can play the corner outfield and they all have options.  

Diaz has been slow to develop but he is still the future RFer. He starts at AAA in 2020.  He could be there 3 months or he could take a whole year to develop.  The major league ball should help his offense.

Mullins and McKenna are 4th outfielders and backup center fielders.  If they show they can hit at AAA sometime  in 2020 they could be the answer to what happens in center when Hays is on the IL.  But that is a ways in the future.

Mason Williams will probably be DFA'd and may be signed to a AAA contract with an invite to ST.   He could be the backup CF if Hays goes on the IL and Mullins/McKenna are not ready yet.

With these guys available in the OF now and in the future I don't see the O's spending much time or money on OFer this off season.  Elias will be trying to find cheap pitching.

 

 

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7 hours ago, Philip said:

I think it’s a worthwhile exercise to look over other 40- man rosters and see which DFA candidates would be improvements.

Hopefully with Elias getting more settled we will see him be more active with the waiver wire game this offseason. 

OD,

LF Smith

CF Hays

RF Santander

Bench - Stewart, Wilkerson and Mancini as needed

After June 1st,

LF Mountcastle or Diaz(I’m thinking both will be on the team somehow)

CF Hays

RF Santander

Bench Stewart, Smith

 

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20 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think Stewart is worse than Smith in the outfield.

Well let's check the statcast:

Players:          Reaction   Burst   Route   Feet vs AVG   Feet covered
Stewart              -1.0         -2.5      -1.2           -4.7                   29.1
Smith Jr.            -0.4         -2.4       0.0           -2.8                   30.8
Mancini              -0.1         -2.2      -0.1           -2.5                   30.9

So by pure metrics, Stewart was worse than Smith in the outfield and Mancini was better than both though only marginal better than Smith. He was actually much worse than I recall watching in the minors so not sure if the upper decks messed him up some or not, by Stewart by just about any metric was awful defensively.

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7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm going with his track record in the minors over such a small sample size in the majors.

Hmm, interesting take. So you are going to go with  limited scouting eye data over hard facts?

As someone who watched him in the minors and this year in the majors, let me tell you, Stewart is not good defensively. As he's gotten older he's lost a little athleticism and honestly, there were plenty of takes by scouts who didn't think he was a very good defender in the minors.  

He always played pretty decent when I saw him, but I'll take statcast data over any scouts eyes when it comes to outfield jumps, routes and foot speed. 

I do not expect to change your mind though. Afterall, you still don't think Elias has full control over his allotted international money because he "hasn't spent it all" yet.

You be you though!

 

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2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Hmm, interesting take. So you are going to go with  limited scouting eye data over hard facts?

As someone who watched him in the minors and this year in the majors, let me tell you, Stewart is not good defensively. As he's gotten older he's lost a little athleticism and honestly, there were plenty of takes by scouts who didn't think he was a very good defender in the minors.  

He always played pretty decent when I saw him, but I'll take statcast data over any scouts eyes when it comes to outfield jumps, routes and foot speed. 

I do not expect to change your mind though. Afterall, you still don't think Elias has full control over his allotted international money because he "hasn't spent it all" yet.

You be you though!

 

Are the same scouts that didnt think Yaz could play at the major league level as more than a bench COF?

Stewart was drafted for his bat.

Hopefully, Elias can draft guys who can hit, as well as field a position.

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4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Hmm, interesting take. So you are going to go with  limited scouting eye data over hard facts?

As someone who watched him in the minors and this year in the majors, let me tell you, Stewart is not good defensively. As he's gotten older he's lost a little athleticism and honestly, there were plenty of takes by scouts who didn't think he was a very good defender in the minors.  

He always played pretty decent when I saw him, but I'll take statcast data over any scouts eyes when it comes to outfield jumps, routes and foot speed. 

I do not expect to change your mind though. Afterall, you still don't think Elias has full control over his allotted international money because he "hasn't spent it all" yet.

You be you though!

 

I just don't think he's had enough chances in the majors to make a fair determination

  I'm certainly not suggesting he's good out there, just better than Smith.

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2 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Are the same scouts that didnt think Yaz could play at the major league level as more than a bench COF?

 

So everyone in baseball?

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I think that Diaz and Hays will have spots in the outfield.  Ideally, they are both really good corner outfielders,  but neither Mullins nor McKenna look like full time centerfielders.  So, if Santander is truly the real deal, he pushes Hayes to center; Mountcastle pushes Mancini to another team, hopefully for a decent return.

Long-term, I think we have answers in the outfield, at first base, and at catcher.  The rest of the infield is missing in action with our 2B, SS, 3B options mainly in the low minors.

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In regard to Stewart, I for the life of me can't see how a guy with his defensive skills gets drafted in the first round. A first rounder should be the best all around player you can find.(At least in my world) IMO his bat isn't special enough to have warranted a first pick. With that being said I hope I'm wrong about that and he sets MLB on fire next year.

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1 hour ago, OsEatAlEast said:

In regard to Stewart, I for the life of me can't see how a guy with his defensive skills gets drafted in the first round. A first rounder should be the best all around player you can find.(At least in my world) IMO his bat isn't special enough to have warranted a first pick. With that being said I hope I'm wrong about that and he sets MLB on fire next year.

Hmm... Seems I immediately declared it a wasted first round pick, and was right

A first round pick should have some ML projectable skill.

The story on DJ was that he was a high OBP guy, which isn't a projectable skill, and oddly they immediately after drafting him re-built his swing as they felt he would never hit ML pitching with the severe crouch he used in college. He was a DH that no one projected to hit with power and yet they drafted him in the first round presumably to do some lip service to improving the system OBP.

 

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1 hour ago, NCRaven said:

I think that Diaz and Hays will have spots in the outfield.  Ideally, they are both really good corner outfielders,  but neither Mullins nor McKenna look like full time centerfielders.  So, if Santander is truly the real deal, he pushes Hayes to center; Mountcastle pushes Mancini to another team, hopefully for a decent return.

Long-term, I think we have answers in the outfield, at first base, and at catcher.  The rest of the infield is missing in action with our 2B, SS, 3B options mainly in the low minors.

Rutschman is the only player in the system (including the big league team) who projects as being more than an everyday player. A team of everyday players won't get it done in this division unless the pitching turns out to be as good as the Rays. Besides, some of these guys will get hurt and others will just stop developing at some point. It's hard to know what we have right now.

Must. Keep. Filling. Pipeline.

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1 hour ago, OsEatAlEast said:

In regard to Stewart, I for the life of me can't see how a guy with his defensive skills gets drafted in the first round. A first rounder should be the best all around player you can find.(At least in my world) IMO his bat isn't special enough to have warranted a first pick. With that being said I hope I'm wrong about that and he sets MLB on fire next year.

He was a low ceiling high floor guy that they though could move through the system quickly enough to extend the window.

He's made the majors, that already makes him a better selection than Josh Hart. (Oddly enough the whole OH just seemingly forgot about Hart and his troubles)

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I start with Stewart,  Hayes, Santander.  Never want to see Smith Jr again, no redeeming qualities. I want Mancini at 1B and Davis gone or 26th man. I give Stewart until Mountcastle time is up and then decide what to do. Backup.could be Mason or Stevie.

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As for the OP, barring any trades, I think the opening day outfield will be:

LF: Stewart
CF: Hays
RF: Santander

I think Mason Williams has a good chance of being the 4th outfielder. 

I see Mountcastle playing a lot of LF in spring and in AAA to start the season and by mid-late April, he will come up and play LF.

Diaz will play everyday RF for Norfolk next year. His arrival will depend on his performance as well as Santander's performance. 

By the way, don't give up on Muillins yet. He'll start next year as Norfolks' CFer. He could see more time in Baltimore in Williams role or in CF if Hays misses time.

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