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No Fanfest in 2020?

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On 10/22/2019 at 9:19 AM, interloper said:

If they sell, it will be to people committed to keeping the team in Baltimore. The brothers have come right out and shot those Nashville rumors down with some very strong words. I have no reason to believe they are lying. 

They can say whatever they want.   And not be lying.

But when the time comes to sell the ONE asset that comprises the vast majority of the family's wealth to set up the family's future for multiple generations, they will sell for the best deal they can get, period, regardless of any good intentions they may have.

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The positive narrative, which a lot of us believe, is that Elias is trying to do here what he did in Houston.   In Houston they cut major league payroll severely but they reinvested that money into the organization from the minor leagues up.   And then when the time came, the Astros did in fact spend money at the major league payroll level.

But there is another, cynical narrative that some people believe.   That the Angelos's want to cut expenses to make as much out profit out of this team as they can before selling it.   That narrative would also explain the cut in major league payroll.   In that narrative, the payroll money isn't reinvested into infrastructure development (or at least not a large chunk of it) and not saved for future spending, but goes directly into the Angelos' pocket.  Who knows, maybe Elias even sold them on hiring him because his analytics driven approach meant that hundreds of veteran scouts and coaches who make a lot of money, could be replaced by a few data science and IT professionals, and younger less expensive guys as coaches because they are more open to analytics than old school guys who make more money due to seniority.   Accompanied by a temporary drastic decline in ML payroll meaning the team could churn out profit for a few years while the Angelos's work on getting a buyer.

I'm not saying either narrative is the "correct" one, and of course I believe that life is rarely black and white, there's always a grey area sot here could be truth to both.

But the idea of these two competing narratives being possible leaves us sitting here trying to interpret everything that happens through each of those lenses.

-- Lots of scouts let go,... fits narrative #1 because we are going to a more data and analytics driven appraoch.   Fits narrative #2 because we are saving scouts salaries & travel expenses.  

-- Seems like we are spending more of our international allotment than before, but not yet as much as the top teams do.   Not enough is known yet to see which way this one falls.

-- We know they have invested in new technologies for the minor leaguers to monitor their swings, body movement, and pitcher delivery, so that's a plus for the positive narrative.

We wait and see what people, how many, and at what expense, get hired by the organization this offseason.  Do they hire a bunch of 23 year old intern types willing to work cheap to get into the baseball industry in lieu of veteran scouts who were at the peak of their earning?   Or do they hire well respected, well paid people from other organizations?

Do they spend money on facilities in the Dominican?   Do they hire more international scouts to cover lesser known areas of the world where valuable players will be found?  

Lots of things will be very hard for us to judge.   They could be making significant spending on  technology investments in things that will greatly improve our minor league system, or not.   And we don't really have much of a way of knowing.   

So when we see something occur like the cancellation of Fanfest, if you already believe in the cynical narrative (or at the very least have a little nagging fear in the back of your head that it might be true)...it's natural to wonder if this isn't just one part of a massive cost-cutting scheme that means this operation will be run as bare bones as possible to generate maximum revenue for the next few years.   Even if you don't believe that yourself, there ARE people out there who will definitely believe that.   As Frobby says, the Orioles need to get ahead of the narrative and so far they have not.   It's just a matter of time before Meoli or Schmuck or Connolly writes a full length article about the long tradition of Fanfest ending, which means that instead of a few hundred of us fanatics on a message board knowing about it, tens of thousands of people will be talking about it and wondering what it means.

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3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m sure the analysis is more sophisticated than that.   For one thing, if you rent a convention center designed to hold 15,000+ people and 3,000 show up for your event, then you really have egg on your face.    That just generates negative publicity.    It’s not just about whether the event shows a direct profit.   Frankly, I doubt it ever did.   

Do they have egg on their face when the stadium is empty many nights? The actual attendance and who shows up are a large disparity. It’s not a pretty sight when a 45K stadium has about 3k there.

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2 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Do they have egg on their face when the stadium is empty many nights? The actual attendance and who shows up are a large disparity. It’s not a pretty sight when a 45K stadium has about 3k there.

Pretty easy to not book the convention center. What do you suggest they do about a home ball park? I'll wait.

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7 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Do they have egg on their face when the stadium is empty many nights? The actual attendance and who shows up are a large disparity. It’s not a pretty sight when a 45K stadium has about 3k there.

Well, yeah, they sort of do.   But, they have no choice but to play the games, and play them in OPACY.   They do have a choice as to whether to hold Fanfest or perhaps do some other events at more intimate venues.   We’ll see what they do.    

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Just now, Frobby said:

Well, yeah, they sort of do.   But, they have no choice but to play the games, and play them in OPACY.   They do have a choice as to whether to hold Fanfest or perhaps do some other events at more intimate venues.   We’ll see what they do.    

From the email we see on this thread they aren’t going to be doing any events. Once again, once they head to Sarasota it isn’t feasible to do anything. 

I’m sure they will be doing some different things to “engage” with the fans this year but it is pretty evident unless they have a late change of heart the ability to basically see the entire organization at one event is not happening.  

Usually I am not someone to overreact but when every MLB team has this same event and the Orioles have had it for probably 3 decades and then it goes away, it makes no sense.  

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34 minutes ago, Sanfran327 said:

Pretty easy to not book the convention center. What do you suggest they do about a home ball park? I'll wait.

So you think a promotional event in the dead of winter that lets say attracts 6-7K is a bad idea because of optics? 

Fanfest is to promote the team. The event is not televised. If attendance is down who cares. People aren’t chuckling and making smart ass comments on social media like they do with empty stadiums. 

I did some research today. In 2017 an article said it was the 4th time in 5 years the event drew around 15k. I think the one year it was lower was because they had it in December because of a conflict with the convention center. In 18 they had 11k, coming off a losing season and no Manny and Schoop. Last year they said there was around 8k. 

I have gone to the event probably at least 80% of the years they have had it. I had to miss it in 18 but before that it was probably a decade plus since I did not go. Last year there was a huge line getting into the event. It wasn’t like you looked around and no one was there. You could tell as the day went on it was not as crowded as in years past but it certainly was not a dead atmosphere by any means.

I love going to games and don’t let the attendance impact my own enjoyment, that said some of the games the last couple of years were like going to the library. 

The casual fan has already checked out. They aren’t coming back until the team starts winning. Take care of the people that still do care.   

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1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

So you think a promotional event in the dead of winter that lets say attracts 6-7K is a bad idea because of optics? 

Fanfest is to promote the team. The event is not televised. If attendance is down who cares. People aren’t chuckling and making smart ass comments on social media like they do with empty stadiums. 

I did some research today. In 2017 an article said it was the 4th time in 5 years the event drew around 15k. I think the one year it was lower was because they had it in December because of a conflict with the convention center. In 18 they had 11k, coming off a losing season and no Manny and Schoop. Last year they said there was around 8k. 

I have gone to the event probably at least 80% of the years they have had it. I had to miss it in 18 but before that it was probably a decade plus since I did not go. Last year there was a huge line getting into the event. It wasn’t like you looked around and no one was there. You could tell as the day went on it was not as crowded as in years past but it certainly was not a dead atmosphere by any means.

I love going to games and don’t let the attendance impact my own enjoyment, that said some of the games the last couple of years were like going to the library. 

The casual fan has already checked out. They aren’t coming back until the team starts winning. Take care of the people that still do care.   

Your last line makes sense, but your original analogy was so far off base it was in outer space. Just givin you a hard time.

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4 hours ago, SteveA said:

The positive narrative, which a lot of us believe, is that Elias is trying to do here what he did in Houston.   In Houston they cut major league payroll severely but they reinvested that money into the organization from the minor leagues up.   And then when the time came, the Astros did in fact spend money at the major league payroll level.

But there is another, cynical narrative that some people believe.   That the Angelos's want to cut expenses to make as much out profit out of this team as they can before selling it.   That narrative would also explain the cut in major league payroll.   In that narrative, the payroll money isn't reinvested into infrastructure development (or at least not a large chunk of it) and not saved for future spending, but goes directly into the Angelos' pocket.  Who knows, maybe Elias even sold them on hiring him because his analytics driven approach meant that hundreds of veteran scouts and coaches who make a lot of money, could be replaced by a few data science and IT professionals, and younger less expensive guys as coaches because they are more open to analytics than old school guys who make more money due to seniority.   Accompanied by a temporary drastic decline in ML payroll meaning the team could churn out profit for a few years while the Angelos's work on getting a buyer.

I'm not saying either narrative is the "correct" one, and of course I believe that life is rarely black and white, there's always a grey area sot here could be truth to both.

But the idea of these two competing narratives being possible leaves us sitting here trying to interpret everything that happens through each of those lenses.

-- Lots of scouts let go,... fits narrative #1 because we are going to a more data and analytics driven appraoch.   Fits narrative #2 because we are saving scouts salaries & travel expenses.  

-- Seems like we are spending more of our international allotment than before, but not yet as much as the top teams do.   Not enough is known yet to see which way this one falls.

-- We know they have invested in new technologies for the minor leaguers to monitor their swings, body movement, and pitcher delivery, so that's a plus for the positive narrative.

We wait and see what people, how many, and at what expense, get hired by the organization this offseason.  Do they hire a bunch of 23 year old intern types willing to work cheap to get into the baseball industry in lieu of veteran scouts who were at the peak of their earning?   Or do they hire well respected, well paid people from other organizations?

Do they spend money on facilities in the Dominican?   Do they hire more international scouts to cover lesser known areas of the world where valuable players will be found?  

Lots of things will be very hard for us to judge.   They could be making significant spending on  technology investments in things that will greatly improve our minor league system, or not.   And we don't really have much of a way of knowing.   

So when we see something occur like the cancellation of Fanfest, if you already believe in the cynical narrative (or at the very least have a little nagging fear in the back of your head that it might be true)...it's natural to wonder if this isn't just one part of a massive cost-cutting scheme that means this operation will be run as bare bones as possible to generate maximum revenue for the next few years.   Even if you don't believe that yourself, there ARE people out there who will definitely believe that.   As Frobby says, the Orioles need to get ahead of the narrative and so far they have not.   It's just a matter of time before Meoli or Schmuck or Connolly writes a full length article about the long tradition of Fanfest ending, which means that instead of a few hundred of us fanatics on a message board knowing about it, tens of thousands of people will be talking about it and wondering what it means.

With nice degrees or big brains. Yes. That is what they will do. Reputations will sink a candidate. 

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We still have the Mr. Trashwheel Fanfest so all is good in the neighberhood. The Orioles should actually combine with this Fanfest. Some good jokes could be made. Which picks up more trash? Will maybe not good jokes .

https://waterfrontpartnershipbaltimore.salsalabs.org/trashwheelfanfest2019/index.html?fbclid=IwAR0ax-v1T-uqLht0mQMZL07SX1H_ZzoDK

 

 

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21 hours ago, SteveA said:

The positive narrative, which a lot of us believe, is that Elias is trying to do here what he did in Houston.   In Houston they cut major league payroll severely but they reinvested that money into the organization from the minor leagues up.   And then when the time came, the Astros did in fact spend money at the major league payroll level.

But there is another, cynical narrative that some people believe.   That the Angelos's want to cut expenses to make as much out profit out of this team as they can before selling it.   That narrative would also explain the cut in major league payroll.   In that narrative, the payroll money isn't reinvested into infrastructure development (or at least not a large chunk of it) and not saved for future spending, but goes directly into the Angelos' pocket.  Who knows, maybe Elias even sold them on hiring him because his analytics driven approach meant that hundreds of veteran scouts and coaches who make a lot of money, could be replaced by a few data science and IT professionals, and younger less expensive guys as coaches because they are more open to analytics than old school guys who make more money due to seniority.   Accompanied by a temporary drastic decline in ML payroll meaning the team could churn out profit for a few years while the Angelos's work on getting a buyer.

I'm not saying either narrative is the "correct" one, and of course I believe that life is rarely black and white, there's always a grey area sot here could be truth to both.

But the idea of these two competing narratives being possible leaves us sitting here trying to interpret everything that happens through each of those lenses.

-- Lots of scouts let go,... fits narrative #1 because we are going to a more data and analytics driven appraoch.   Fits narrative #2 because we are saving scouts salaries & travel expenses.  

-- Seems like we are spending more of our international allotment than before, but not yet as much as the top teams do.   Not enough is known yet to see which way this one falls.

-- We know they have invested in new technologies for the minor leaguers to monitor their swings, body movement, and pitcher delivery, so that's a plus for the positive narrative.

We wait and see what people, how many, and at what expense, get hired by the organization this offseason.  Do they hire a bunch of 23 year old intern types willing to work cheap to get into the baseball industry in lieu of veteran scouts who were at the peak of their earning?   Or do they hire well respected, well paid people from other organizations?

Do they spend money on facilities in the Dominican?   Do they hire more international scouts to cover lesser known areas of the world where valuable players will be found?  

Lots of things will be very hard for us to judge.   They could be making significant spending on  technology investments in things that will greatly improve our minor league system, or not.   And we don't really have much of a way of knowing.   

So when we see something occur like the cancellation of Fanfest, if you already believe in the cynical narrative (or at the very least have a little nagging fear in the back of your head that it might be true)...it's natural to wonder if this isn't just one part of a massive cost-cutting scheme that means this operation will be run as bare bones as possible to generate maximum revenue for the next few years.   Even if you don't believe that yourself, there ARE people out there who will definitely believe that.   As Frobby says, the Orioles need to get ahead of the narrative and so far they have not.   It's just a matter of time before Meoli or Schmuck or Connolly writes a full length article about the long tradition of Fanfest ending, which means that instead of a few hundred of us fanatics on a message board knowing about it, tens of thousands of people will be talking about it and wondering what it means.

If they were making a lot of improvements in these fronts that you suggest wouldn't be a fan fest and the Season Ticket holder Q/A be a great place to explain there moves.   If they were building a new Dominican Academy building I think we would have heard about it. 

Also they have MASN website as their official site to make all sorts of announcements and Roch and Steve will print whatever they want to put forth. 

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I think it is as simple as the roster changes make planning an event and marketing it difficult.  I do think getting ahead of the message is important and I believe the responsibility for that falls on Elias.  I always wanted to go and yet never did, even when I was a season ticket holder. I can see shutting it down for a year...but I'm willing to see what change if any they want to make.

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I think a caravan across the state of Maryland  and parts of Central PA  would be a good idea. About six teams have one in January,at least as of last year. You get five or six different buses and the Orioles roam the state and near York ,PA. Each bus has two or so current Orioles,two former Orioles ,a TV and radio guy and two minor leaguers and Oriole bird and maybe a minor league mascot depending on what stadium they stop at. .  i know the other teams stop at businesses,schools,hospitals,nursing homes.etc. Kids clinics indoors also .

Stops could be started in Hagerstown and go to Fort Detrick and up to a mall in York,Pa and end up at the Keys Stadium for Oriole season ticket holders and Keys season ticket holders to get autographs. 

Also off for the Eastern Shore and ending at the Shorebirds stadium for again season ticket holders of Shorebirds and Orioles.

One for Annapolis with stops at the USNA and go to Fort Meade and end up at the Baysox Stadium again for season ticket holders of both teams.

One for Aberdeen with stops at the Aberdeen Proving Grounds and ending at the Ironbirds stadium for season ticket holders of both teams.

The big one would be the one for Baltimore which would have to include the # 1 draft pick with stops at SSA and throughout the county and city ending at Camden Yards for autographs for season ticket holders. 

They would also be stopping at the other places I listed above.

The Reds are even doing a contest this year where the bus stops at your place of business or your house if you win.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/reds-caravan-details-released-for-2019-c302354222

 

 

 

 

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