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Legend_Of_Joey

Orioles Free Agents

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Just a place holder until @Enjoy Terror does his yearly, extremely awesome post documenting every single move...

Jace Peterson and Jesus Sucre have both officially filed for free agency, along with a dozen or so players from other teams.

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Minor league free agents, for now. Players who were on a roster can’t file until a few days after the WS ends.    

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I looked through the position players and pitchers that because FAs listed on MLBTR today.   I see nothing that will help the O's.

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12 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I haven't looked at the position players, but there are a number of pitchers on that list who are interesting. 

From a simple performance based analysis,

Juan Minaya

29yo with 128 innings of 3.93 ERA ball in the majors. It's nothing exciting, but he's been a solid middle reliever. He's also tinkered with his offspeed/breaking pitches a bit and there may be some potential improvements in pitch mix/selection. 

Chasen Shreve

29yo with 203 innings of 3.71 ERA ball in the majors. He was stuck in AAA this year because of the strength of the Cardinals bullpen, where he had a 3.45 ERA, a full 2.4 runs under the league average 5.85 ERA. His FIP numbers aren't good, but he's one of those few guys who consistently beats his FIP numbers. 

An interesting spin rate dude,

Dan Winkler

Of 600 pitchers who threw 50 of more 4S fastballs in 2019, Winkler had the 15th highest RPM/MPH on his fastball. There is evidence that he's not using the pitch as well as he could, locating primarily middle of the zone and down, exactly where a high spin fastball plays poorly. Winkler is also only a year removed from a strong year as an important part of the Braves bullpen. He's only 29 years old. 

Finally, a guy who is probably the riskiest of the group, but has serious stuff but has never put it together,

Bryan Mitchell

He's coming off a lost year, but at his best he averaged almost 95mph as a SP and added a 90mph cutter, and nasty high spin curveball. He should miss bats, but he doesn't. He's also battled some injuries. If he's healthy, he's the type of guy you sell the opportunity of the wide open O's pitching staff and you see if you can't make some tweaks to get him on track. He's 28 years old. 

 

 

 

 

Thank you very much. Every time I try to do this research myself, I am flummoxed, so I’m grateful for your contributions.

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Not on the Minor league free agent list, but the Rockies are reportedly thinking about non-tendering Tyler Anderson.

Anderson made 2.625M in 2019 and is getting non-tendered, so I'd assume he'd be cheap enough for the Orioles to sign.

He's a lefty, former 1st round draft pick, and has pretty much been a league average starting pitcher when active in 2016, 2017, and 2018 before struggling last year. 

It's Fastball, Cutter, Curveball, Change. Fastball is generally around 92mph with above average spin for the velocity. It's a pretty close to vertical spin axis on the fastball and curveball, but the curveball is below average with soft loopy almost 12-6 action. He doesn't throw the curveball a lot, but seems like someone if you could tighten the curve a bit (using edgertronic video to help cue), it would really help the fastball play better. 

He is recovering from knee surgery and won't be ready for opening day, but this actually is a benefit for the Orioles. It makes him less desirable for other teams and allows the O's to on-board him and work on pitch design through his recovery. 

Edit:

This is what I mean about his pitch mix, he needs a usable Curveball to change the eye level, everything else is within a fairly tight movement profile. Brooksbaseball-Chart.thumb.png.04081077ba14ddb48576cd041e536114.png

 

 

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On 10/23/2019 at 2:40 AM, Luke-OH said:

I haven't looked at the position players, but there are a number of pitchers on that list who are interesting. 

From a simple performance based analysis,

Juan Minaya

29yo with 128 innings of 3.93 ERA ball in the majors. It's nothing exciting, but he's been a solid middle reliever. He's also tinkered with his offspeed/breaking pitches a bit and there may be some potential improvements in pitch mix/selection. 

Chasen Shreve

29yo with 203 innings of 3.71 ERA ball in the majors. He was stuck in AAA this year because of the strength of the Cardinals bullpen, where he had a 3.45 ERA, a full 2.4 runs under the league average 5.85 ERA. His FIP numbers aren't good, but he's one of those few guys who consistently beats his FIP numbers. 

An interesting spin rate dude,

Dan Winkler

Of 600 pitchers who threw 50 of more 4S fastballs in 2019, Winkler had the 15th highest RPM/MPH on his fastball. There is evidence that he's not using the pitch as well as he could, locating primarily middle of the zone and down, exactly where a high spin fastball plays poorly. Winkler is also only a year removed from a strong year as an important part of the Braves bullpen. He's only 29 years old. 

Finally, a guy who is probably the riskiest of the group, but has serious stuff but has never put it together,

Bryan Mitchell

He's coming off a lost year, but at his best he averaged almost 95mph as a SP and added a 90mph cutter, and nasty high spin curveball. He should miss bats, but he doesn't. He's also battled some injuries. If he's healthy, he's the type of guy you sell the opportunity of the wide open O's pitching staff and you see if you can't make some tweaks to get him on track. He's 28 years old. 

Here is my take in these guys:

The O's currently have Harvey, Givens, Castro, Bleier, Tanner Scott.  That is 5 relievers.   They have three more reliever spots.   Two of those spots go to long reliever/starters IMO.  

The last  spot is currently Evans Phillips.   He as proven all he needs to at AAA.   His AAA stats are:

AAA   3.41 ERA,   121.1 IP,  99H,  145 SO,   1.286 WhIP,  Age: 25   Salary : Minimum.

Any reliever that the O's sign to a major league contract should have a better future than Phillips because  that reliever will taking his slot on the 40 man roster.

Juan Minaya and Shreve are 29 and Winkler will be 30 next year.   Mitchell has no control.

I would not offer any of them a ML  contract but AAA  and a invite to ST would be alright.

On Anderson,   Will other teams out bid the O's and will the O's pay 2.6m for any new pitcher?

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9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

 

On Anderson,   Will other teams out bid the O's and will the O's pay 2.6m for any new pitcher?

He's unlikely to cost $2.6 million.  Colorado is non-tendering him rather than paying him that.

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5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Here is my take in these guys:

The O's currently have Harvey, Givens, Castro, Bleier, Tanner Scott.  That is 5 relievers.   They have three more reliever spots.   Two of those spots go to long reliever/starters IMO.  

The last  spot is currently Evans Phillips.   He as proven all he needs to at AAA.   His AAA stats are:

AAA   3.41 ERA,   121.1 IP,  99H,  145 SO,   1.286 WhIP,  Age: 25   Salary : Minimum.

Any reliever that the O's sign to a major league contract should have a better future than Phillips because  that reliever will taking his slot on the 40 man roster.

Juan Minaya and Shreve are 29 and Winkler will be 30 next year.   Mitchell has no control.

I would not off any of them a ML  contract but AAA  and a invite to ST would be alright.

On Anderson,   Will other teams out bid the O's and will the O's pay 2.6m for any new pitcher?

Minaya, Shreve, and Winkler are all probably better right now than Evan Phillips, Phillips has another option. They are all controllable and will probably be available for MLB minimum. 

On Anderson, he probably won't get 2.6M, but why wouldn't the Orioles pay 2.6M for a player who they have a rotation spot for and the potential to be much more valuable?

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6 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Minaya, Shreve, and Winkler are all probably better right now than Evan Phillips, Phillips has another option. They are all controllable and will probably be available for MLB minimum. 

On Anderson, he probably won't get 2.6M, but why wouldn't the Orioles pay 2.6M for a player who they have a rotation spot for and the potential to be much more valuable?

Last season the highest the O's went for talent from outside the organization was 850K.    The O's are projected to lose again in 2020.  I don't think the O's will spend more than 1m on any  outside from outside the organization this off season.  Why do you think they will go higher?

Anderson is 30 years old next  season.  He is not part of the O's next playoff team.   I doubt the O's spend for him.  

Do you think the O's can get Minaya, Shreve or Winkler of minor league contracts?

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2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Last season the highest the O's went for talent from outside the organization was 850K.    The O's are projected to lose again in 2020.  I don't think the O's will spend more than 1m on any  outside from outside the organization this off season.  Why do you think they will go higher?

Anderson is 30 years old next  season.  He is not part of the O's next playoff team.   I doubt the O's spend for him.  

All fair and reasonable points but isn't the analysis whether the O's think they can create more value out of him? Meaning, as Luke suggests, if the O's think they can unlock the curveball and create a pitcher who has trade value in July, maybe it makes sense if you can sign him for $1.5M or $2M. 

But if that's the idea, you're using the same analysis on every available pitcher and Anderson is going to cost more than others. To me, it's a question of who do you believe you can create value with, whether you have to spend $2M or $800K. I'd agree the O's likely take their chances with minimum cost guys but maybe Anderson has greater upside by July. 

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46 minutes ago, John Welch said:

All fair and reasonable points but isn't the analysis whether the O's think they can create more value out of him? Meaning, as Luke suggests, if the O's think they can unlock the curveball and create a pitcher who has trade value in July, maybe it makes sense if you can sign him for $1.5M or $2M. 

But if that's the idea, you're using the same analysis on every available pitcher and Anderson is going to cost more than others. To me, it's a question of who do you believe you can create value with, whether you have to spend $2M or $800K. I'd agree the O's likely take their chances with minimum cost guys but maybe Anderson has greater upside by July. 

If Elias spends money this off season I think it will be because he does not get the offers he wants for Villar and Givens and has to carry them into 2020 to try to find a better trade for them.  

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31 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Last season the highest the O's went for talent from outside the organization was 850K.    The O's are projected to lose again in 2020.  I don't think the O's will spend more than 1m on any  outside from outside the organization this off season.  Why do you think they will go higher?

Anderson is 30 years old next  season.  He is not part of the O's next playoff team.   I doubt the O's spend for him.  

Do you think the O's can get Minaya, Shreve or Winkler of minor league contracts?

Why wouldn’t you spend money if you can create value? You have to put a team on the field and I think a smart GM would prefer to spend an extra M or two for a guy like Anderson over the Eshelmans of the world. Super low risk.

I’m not sure about Minaya, Shreve, or Winkler. I’d think they all should get a MLB deal, but I’m not sure about the strength of the reliever market, Shreve seems the most likely to settle for a MiLB deal and ST invite.

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