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VaBird1

BA Top 100

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I really hope Hall and Rodriguez live up to their lofty rankings.   It’s been sooooo long since we drafted and developed a TOR starter on our watch.   

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I know it's splitting hairs at 75 & 88, but I don't understand why Ryan would be #88 when he's younger than most and had a great year in AAA. 

5 in the Top 100 is very nice to see..

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14 minutes ago, ChrisP said:

I know it's splitting hairs at 75 & 88, but I don't understand why Ryan would be #88 when he's younger than most and had a great year in AAA. 

5 in the Top 100 is very nice to see..

Diaz missed time, but put up a better line than Mountcastle considering the league hitting environment. He offers more defensive value and he takes a walk. I have Mountcastle a little higher because I think he's going to be a solid defender at 1B/LF and I think he basically under-performed his talent at the plate (despite his numbers). But I definitely get having Diaz higher and don't fault anyone for it. 

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18 minutes ago, ChrisP said:

I know it's splitting hairs at 75 & 88, but I don't understand why Ryan would be #88 when he's younger than most and had a great year in AAA. 

5 in the Top 100 is very nice to see..

Defense. All his value is with the bat, and it doesn’t appear elite. 

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3 hours ago, VaBird1 said:

Updated 10/1

5.  Rutschman

35. Hall

45. Rodriguez 

75. Diaz

88. Mountcastle 

 

 

I think its interesting that the O's have 5 on the list and Austin Hays is not one of them.   He is eligible.  I am not saying that he earned being on the  list in 2019  but pre-2018 BA had him at #21.

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11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think its interesting that the O's have 5 on the list and Austin Hays is not one of them.   He is eligible.  I am not saying that he earned being on the  list in 2019  but pre-2018 BA had him at #21.

There is a bias to some extent against post-hype prospects. People generally overrate players who haven't failed and underrate players who have failed and then rebounded. When you haven't seen a player's flaws, it's easy to pretend they don't have any, but once someone has shown you their flaws, it's hard to forget them even if they've fixed them to an extent. I'm guilty of this myself at times. 

Now that's not to say that there weren't real concerns that dropped Hays off top 100 lists, because there were. 

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6 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

There is a bias to some extent against post-hype prospects. People generally overrate players who haven't failed and underrate players who have failed and then rebounded. When you haven't seen a player's flaws, it's easy to pretend they don't have any, but once someone has shown you their flaws, it's hard to forget them even if they've fixed them to an extent. I'm guilty of this myself at times. 

Now that's not to say that there weren't real concerns that dropped Hays off top 100 lists, because there were. 

To me it seems that Hays has the talent to be on the list but not the health.  

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Hays is a unusual case being a former top prospect who has struggled extensively before looking good in a short MLB stint. 

But Mike Baumann has a real case for top 100 prospect status. Let's compare him to Justin Dunn, the #99th ranked prospect by BA.

Dunn is 24 years, one month old. Baumann is 24 years, one month old.

Dunn was a 1st round pick in 2016, Baumann was a 3rd round pick in 2017.

Dunn pitched 131.2 innings in AA with a 10.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, .89 HR/9, 3.55 ERA, 3.43 FIP

Baumann pitched 70 innings in AA with a 8.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, .26 HR/9, 2.31 ERA, 2.63 FIP

(Baumann started in A+ ball, having 1 less year of pro experience with a combined line of 124 IP,  10.31 K/9, 3.27 BB/9, .29 HR/9, 2.98 ERA, 2.50 FIP)

Dunn average 92.5 MPH on his fastball in September in short 2 inning outings, he was 92-94 in a minor league start in April. 93-95 t96 with armside run at his best. Plus slider, developing changeup that's a quality MLB pitch now.

Baumann was 91-95 some early season starts, 94-98 at his best, but mostly 93-96 with strong ride from a high 3/4 slot. t99 a couple times.  Plus or better hard slider, 90-91mph some outings. Developing changeup and curveball, lacked consistency but greatly improved from 2018, but flashing average or better. Both have a realistic shot at being average MLB pitches with more reps (he changed how he threw every pitch in 2019). 

It's pretty darn close. Dunn has the better shot of staying in a rotation, but Baumann's ceiling is higher. 

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BA will stick with their guys until they completely wash out. They know Diaz signed for a lot of money and they will keep him on there for a long time. BA has always be infatuated with bonus money and drafted status when it comes to their top 100 and top prospects lists. 

I'm sure there are people out there, but  haven't talk to one yet that would take Diaz over Mountcastle, but hey, to each his own. Diaz will not be over Mountcastle on our list  can guarantee. :D

BTW, our list is just being finalized. Look for something next week!

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1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

Hays is a unusual case being a former top prospect who has struggled extensively before looking good in a short MLB stint. 

But Mike Baumann has a real case for top 100 prospect status. Let's compare him to Justin Dunn, the #99th ranked prospect by BA.

Dunn is 24 years, one month old. Baumann is 24 years, one month old.

Dunn was a 1st round pick in 2016, Baumann was a 3rd round pick in 2017.

Dunn pitched 131.2 innings in AA with a 10.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, .89 HR/9, 3.55 ERA, 3.43 FIP

Baumann pitched 70 innings in AA with a 8.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, .26 HR/9, 2.31 ERA, 2.63 FIP

(Baumann started in A+ ball, having 1 less year of pro experience with a combined line of 124 IP,  10.31 K/9, 3.27 BB/9, .29 HR/9, 2.98 ERA, 2.50 FIP)

Dunn average 92.5 MPH on his fastball in September in short 2 inning outings, he was 92-94 in a minor league start in April. 93-95 t96 with armside run at his best. Plus slider, developing changeup that's a quality MLB pitch now.

Baumann was 91-95 some early season starts, 94-98 at his best, but mostly 93-96 with strong ride from a high 3/4 slot. t99 a couple times.  Plus or better hard slider, 90-91mph some outings. Developing changeup and curveball, lacked consistency but greatly improved from 2018, but flashing average or better. Both have a realistic shot at being average MLB pitches with more reps (he changed how he threw every pitch in 2019). 

It's pretty darn close. Dunn has the better shot of staying in a rotation, but Baumann's ceiling is higher. 

You forgot one important thing for BA, Dunn is a former 1st rounder and Baumann is a 3rd rounder. :D

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1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

 

Dunn average 92.5 MPH on his fastball in September in short 2 inning outings, he was 92-94 in a minor league start in April. 93-95 t96 with armside run at his best. Plus slider, developing changeup that's a quality MLB pitch now.

Baumann was 91-95 some early season starts, 94-98 at his best, but mostly 93-96 with strong ride from a high 3/4 slot. t99 a couple times.  Plus or better hard slider, 90-91mph some outings. Developing changeup and curveball, lacked consistency but greatly improved from 2018, but flashing average or better. Both have a realistic shot at being average MLB pitches with more reps (he changed how he threw every pitch in 2019). 

It's pretty darn close. Dunn has the better shot of staying in a rotation, but Baumann's ceiling is higher

Where does Baumann need improvement? Change and curveball consistency? His fastball command is good, yes?

Appreciate information like "he changed how he threw every pitch in 2019". 

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33 minutes ago, John Welch said:

Where does Baumann need improvement? Change and curveball consistency? His fastball command is good, yes?

Appreciate information like "he changed how he threw every pitch in 2019". 

Yeah, mostly, he could improve his command as well, but with his arm action I don't think he'll ever have more than fringe command. He made big strides as a strikethrower though, I think it had something to do with staying behind his fastball better this year. Which is honestly all he needs to be a mid rotation guy if the curve and change get to average, the FB/SL is really good.

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3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

BTW, our list is just being finalized. Look for something next week!

Best news I’ve had all day!

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