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Uli2001

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23 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I get where you're coming from, but the Nats have been competitive (just not "this" competitive) for awhile. The majority of their fan base is the very definition of a fair weather fan and it took winning the World Series for them to even feign interest. Not exactly an apples to apples comparison IMO. 

How are you defining interest?   Attendance?  The Nats have drawn at least 2.25M for each of the last 8 season while the Orioles did that in only 3 of 8.   In their 15 years in D.C. total attendance is 34.75M compared to 30.57M in Baltimore (see table below)   That works out to an average of 279K more in DC per year.  When the Nats lost over 100 games for two straight years, attendance at that time was still 4.1M compared to under 2.9M in Baltimore since 2018.

Hey now, Soprano, the DC market is much larger.  True.  Baltimore metro's population is very close to that of St. Louis.   How are the Cards doing?  Well in 21 of the past 22 seasons, they've drawn over 3M, and the one year they didn't (2003), the number was 2.9M.  Over those same last 15 years, the Cardinals have drawn over 51M or 67% higher than Baltimore.    Truth be told, the Cardinals are one of the few fanbases that you can't label as fair weather. 

The bottom line is anyway you want to shake the numbers, you can make whatever argument you like.  Both the Orioles and Nats went to the playoffs in 2012, 2014, and 2016.  They continued to have success since then while the Orioles cratered.   Attendance in Baltimore was below 2M for 4 straight years until they found success in 2012.   In 2014, with a division title, attendance was the highest it had been in 9 years.  Were all those extra tickets sold to fair weather fans?  You can't apply that label to DC without sticking it on Baltimore as well.  When most teams do better, there is generally a reflection in the attendance.  St. Louis will always draw and TB never will.

2019    BAL     54    108    1,307,807    WAS    93    69    2,259,781
2018    BAL     47    115    1,564,192    WAS    82    80    2,529,604
2017    BAL     75    87    2,028,424    WAS    97    65    2,524,980
2016    BAL     89    73    2,172,344    WAS    95    67    2,481,938
2015    BAL     81    81    2,281,202    WAS    83    79    2,619,843
2014    BAL     96    66    2,464,473    WAS    96    66    2,579,389
2013    BAL     85    77    2,357,561    WAS    86    76    2,652,422
2012    BAL     93    69    2,102,240    WAS    98    64    2,370,794
2011    BAL     69    93    1,755,461    WAS    80    81    1,940,478
2010    BAL     66    96    1,733,019    WAS    69    93    1,828,066
2009    BAL     64    98    1,907,163    WAS    59    103    1,817,226
2008    BAL     68    93    1,950,075    WAS    59    102    2,320,400
2007    BAL     69    93    2,164,822    WAS    73    89    1,943,812
2006    BAL     70    92    2,153,139    WAS    71    91    2,153,056
2005    BAL     74    88    2,624,740    WAS    81    81    2,731,993

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13 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

The Caps still have their die hard (albeit) smaller fan base. There's no such thing as a die hard Nats fan. 

That’s complete bull.   I know plenty of Nats fans who live and die with that team.

i really hate it when one team’s fans start generalizing about another team’s fan base.     Does DC have more bandwagon fans than some other cities?   Maybe.    Are they all bandwagon fans?    Absolutely not.    

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9 hours ago, Frobby said:

That’s complete bull.   I know plenty of Nats fans who live and die with that team.

i really hate it when one team’s fans start generalizing about another team’s fan base.     Does DC have more bandwagon fans than some other cities?   Maybe.    Are they all bandwagon fans?    Absolutely not.    

I know multiple people who are what I'd call die hard Nats fans.  One guy I work with who goes to opening day every year, playoff games, constantly watches them on TV.  We have a friendly sparring thing between the O's and Nats, which has been pretty one-sided lately.

And I know any number of O's fans who basically said "call me when they get good again" a couple years ago.

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20 hours ago, Frobby said:

That’s complete bull.   I know plenty of Nats fans who live and die with that team.

i really hate it when one team’s fans start generalizing about another team’s fan base.     Does DC have more bandwagon fans than some other cities?   Maybe.    Are they all bandwagon fans?    Absolutely not.    

Agreed. Many years ago when the Nats were new I argued with someone here that, other than Redskins, DC only supports a winner. Mostly my premise was based on the idea that DC is largely transplants with no loyalty to the local teams unless something cool is happening. There are many long time, loyal fans in DC for all.the sports, they just don't outnumber the transplants. There' are diehard Redskins fans, a loyal Caps fanbase, presumably a Wizards fan base but for the life of me I don't know why. There are still Senators fans that now have something to root for. The bandwagon fans will.sport gear and boast, ignore and go about your business,  they aren't worth your time, like pink hat Bosox.

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Not aiming this at anyone. But I would like to see a fanbase like St. Louis, Boston, or NYY go through a 15 yr skid as Baltimore did. Then see what kind of attendance numbers they had after that. Losing for 15 years is almost akin to losing a whole generation of fans. Only the diehardest of diehard young people sign themselves up to root for a constant loser.

Something should be written in the bylaws of MLB. Any ownership group that has 10 straight losing seasons should have to put the team up for sale bar none without exception(unless something unforeseen happens like the team plane goes down in flames or something). It would be a much healthier game I think.

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39 minutes ago, OsEatAlEast said:

Not aiming this at anyone. But I would like to see a fanbase like St. Louis, Boston, or NYY go through a 15 yr skid as Baltimore did. Then see what kind of attendance numbers they had after that. Losing for 15 years is almost akin to losing a whole generation of fans. Only the diehardest of diehard young people sign themselves up to root for a constant loser.

Something should be written in the bylaws of MLB. Any ownership group that has 10 straight losing seasons should have to put the team up for sale bar none without exception(unless something unforeseen happens like the team plane goes down in flames or something). It would be a much healthier game I think.

This really cuts right to the heart of the argument here - I completely agree with you. St. Louis is always in the Top 5 in attendance because they've been consistently good since forever. They've developed a fanbase. They've developed a relationship with the members of their community. Every generation of kids in St. Louis has had an interesting team to watch. And every generation of grandparents and parents have had an interesting team to share with their grandkids/kids.

While we can't ignore the Florida element, I think Tampa Bay has really struggled with attendance because they were completely terrible for the first decade of their existence. It takes a while to build a fanbase - especially in a town that never had a pro team before and might not have had that many diehard baseball fans.

In regard to the Orioles, they were terrible for fourteen seasons. They were briefly pretty good for a few years. Now they are looking at years of losing and straight up tanking. The Baltimore Orioles fanbase is going to be significantly harmed from this. Anyone 35 and younger has grown up with the Orioles always being a joke - and the Baltimore Ravens being the St. Louis Cardinals of the NFL. A lot of them straight up don't care about baseball because of it.

It's going to be tough to build the O's fanbase back to what it was. Winning will certainly help - but I think we all need to stop assuming that just because the O's hired a guy from the Astros, that winning is promised. An interesting team is really far away and at that point. We'll possibly be looking at Baltimoreans 40 or 45 years old and younger who never even had a decent team for any length of time. That's pretty damaging to a fanbase.

 

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1 hour ago, OsEatAlEast said:

Not aiming this at anyone. But I would like to see a fanbase like St. Louis, Boston, or NYY go through a 15 yr skid as Baltimore did. Then see what kind of attendance numbers they had after that. Losing for 15 years is almost akin to losing a whole generation of fans. Only the diehardest of diehard young people sign themselves up to root for a constant loser.

While I completely agree with this premise, I'm one of the fortunate few that witnessed Orioles Magic become a thing. I'm 70, grew up.in South Baltimore and became a fan with Gentile's and Brookss breakout seasons in the early 1960s. For 20 to 25 years they were among they best run franchises in MLB. I assumed they always would be. I was in Philly for game 5 in 1983 and had no premonition we would wander in the darkness this long. I  lived in MO for years in the early to mid 1990s and while the Redbirds haven't had the dark years like the O's, their Midwest.fans I ran into were rabid and knowledgeable. They expect the kind of dominance the NYY had and were very frustrated. They never waivered in their loyalty and they didn't bitch like we do. They just expect better 

 

 

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10 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

The early struggles of the Rays have, in my opinion, very little to do with their attendance issues.

Agreed. They have good TV ratings.  If they move to Tampa I think we see better attendance, plus the Yankees have move out of town which would help attendance too.

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I am very happy for the Washington baseball fan, particularly those who were Senators fans.  My best friend in medical school grew up a Senators fan and has autographs from Harmon Killebrew and Tony Oliva as Washington Senators and from Frank Howard and from Ted Williams as manager and remembers going to games at Griffith Stadium which is where Howard University hospital is now located and at RFK.  Teams moving away twice and enduring really awful teams for many years is something as a Colts and Orioles fan I empathize with.  

I am very happy for them and I really always, always enjoy a new team winning a championship.  Somewhere there are new kids in DC and surrounds that will be baseball fans for life as a result of this year's championship. 

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I cheer vociferously against the Nationals, and was a bit dismayed to see them win for a simple reason: on the whole, I think it’s bad for the Orioles. Now, part of this also is that I live in DC and am surrounded by Nats fans, which is annoying (though, like others, I’ve got good friends who are real fans for whom I’m individually happy). I also take the point that I believe Drungo made that there is some value in having another club close by succeed because it puts more pressure on the O’s to get their you-know-what together.

But, ultimately, I still see the O’s-Nats competition as something of a zero sum rivalry for fans and support, especially in the battleground areas of MD. Certainly those of us on this board and those like us aren’t very likely to switch teams, but for the casual O’s fan that lives in, say, Annapolis or Howard County, it’s a much more real risk. Anecdotally, I can point to 3-4 people at work who have done exactly that while the Orioles were wandering in the desert all those years. The casual fan is much more likely to gravitate to a winner when all else is equal. That’s money that this club needs.

I also disagree with the arguments that minimize the resulting impact on attendance, those that point to the fact that in the first year of the Nats, 2005, Orioles attendance stayed relatively high at 32k per game. However, you’ve got to remember that was the first year in a while that we were exciting and actually competitive - remember, we were 49-40 around the break, and I believe in first place, before cratering horribly in the second half (accentuated by all the Palmeiro steroid stuff). I would contend that our early contention probably helped bolster attendance numbers; certainly not by a ton, but at least by a bit. (I recognize that most tickets are sold early.) I remember the palpable excitement around that team.

Moreover, I’d argue that it’s reasonable to expect a more gradual drop over time. Look at Orioles attendance the five years before the Nationals move, and the five years after (in thousands, rounded to nearest thousand): 41, 39, 33, 30, 34 before the move, and 32, 27, 27, 25, 24 after. We were lousy all of those years. Of course, the latter years we’d been lousy for longer, so apathy and disinterest has longer to take hold, but I don’t know how anyone can dispute their arrival had a substantial effect. Of course, it wasn’t the ONLY factor, but tough to argue against that trendline. That’s 35.4k average before, 27k average the five years after.

Again, I’m NOT arguing that we can’t compete because they are here, nor am I saying that there aren’t other factors (of course) in the decline in support for the team...so you can stow those straw men. I’m just saying that their presence, and even more so their success, on the whole directly negatively impacts, but of course does not eliminate, the Orioles’ chances of winning. It’s less support and less revenue. Thus, despite some of the feel good-ness of the Nats winning (it’s a likable team, and bless you if you’re into the baby shark thing....not for me), it’s ultimately not good for the Orioles, in my view. And frankly, that’s all I really care about.

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57 minutes ago, ReclaimTheCrown said:

I also disagree with the arguments that minimize the resulting impact on attendance, those that point to the fact that in the first year of the Nats, 2005, Orioles attendance stayed relatively high at 32k per game. However, you’ve got to remember that was the first year in a while that we were exciting and actually competitive - remember, we were 49-40 around the break, and I believe in first place, before cratering horribly in the second half (accentuated by all the Palmeiro steroid stuff). I would contend that our early contention probably helped bolster attendance numbers; certainly not by a ton, but at least by a bit. (I recognize that most tickets are sold early.) I remember the palpable excitement around that team.

Moreover, I’d argue that it’s reasonable to expect a more gradual drop over time. Look at Orioles attendance the five years before the Nationals move, and the five years after (in thousands, rounded to nearest thousand): 41, 39, 33, 30, 34 before the move, and 32, 27, 27, 25, 24 after. We were lousy all of those years. Of course, the latter years we’d been lousy for longer, so apathy and disinterest has longer to take hold, but I don’t know how anyone can dispute their arrival had a substantial effect. Of course, it wasn’t the ONLY factor, but tough to argue against that trendline. That’s 35.4k average before, 27k average the five years after.

1997    3,711,132    0
1998    3,684,650    -26,482
1999    3,433,150    -277,982
2000    3,297,031    -414,101
2001    3,094,841    -616,291
2002    2,682,439    -1,028,693
2003    2,454,523    -1,256,609
2004    2,744,018    -967,114

 Again,  if you look at 2003, attendance was already down 34%.  Why was that?
The argument you make about 2005, I can make for 2004.  There was a spike because of the excitement of the previous offseason bringing in Tejada, Palmeiro, and Lopez.   You can also argue that in 2006, fans were turned off by the previous season with the Palmeiro mess, Sosa, and the collapse of the team, (31-53 July on) which led to a drop of -471,601.  On your trendline, you skip past the drop 38.7-33.1.  In 2002 (Nats still in Montreal), the year after Ripken retired, attendance went down - 412,402 and the years of 3+M were over.


In 2014, 709,012 fans went through the turnstiles that weren't there in 2011, a mere 3 years prior.   Did DC fans stampede up north to jump back on the Orioles bandwagon?  I really doubt that. The Nats drew 2.58M that year while winning their division by 17 games. 

What about 2019?  Not only did the Orioles lose every single one of those 709,012 extra fans from 2014, they lost an additional 447,654 on top of that in only 5 years.

I'm not disputing the Nats had an impact on the gate, but the apathy and disinterest you mention was the much larger factor.  The drop in the numbers, pre-Nats and also the historic losing of late demonstrates that.  For a city that seems to resent its neighbor 40 miles to the south so much, it's ironic they also miss the gate from those fans.  Nats fair weather fans, we hate you, please come back.

You can find all the Orioles attendance numbers at this link

 

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2 hours ago, TonySoprano said:

1997    3,711,132    0
1998    3,684,650    -26,482
1999    3,433,150    -277,982
2000    3,297,031    -414,101
2001    3,094,841    -616,291
2002    2,682,439    -1,028,693
2003    2,454,523    -1,256,609
2004    2,744,018    -967,114

 Again,  if you look at 2003, attendance was already down 34%.  Why was that?
The argument you make about 2005, I can make for 2004.  There was a spike because of the excitement of the previous offseason bringing in Tejada, Palmeiro, and Lopez.   You can also argue that in 2006, fans were turned off by the previous season with the Palmeiro mess, Sosa, and the collapse of the team, (31-53 July on) which led to a drop of -471,601.  On your trendline, you skip past the drop 38.7-33.1.  In 2002 (Nats still in Montreal), the year after Ripken retired, attendance went down - 412,402 and the years of 3+M were over.


In 2014, 709,012 fans went through the turnstiles that weren't there in 2011, a mere 3 years prior.   Did DC fans stampede up north to jump back on the Orioles bandwagon?  I really doubt that. The Nats drew 2.58M that year while winning their division by 17 games. 

What about 2019?  Not only did the Orioles lose every single one of those 709,012 extra fans from 2014, they lost an additional 447,654 on top of that in only 5 years.

I'm not disputing the Nats had an impact on the gate, but the apathy and disinterest you mention was the much larger factor.  The drop in the numbers, pre-Nats and also the historic losing of late demonstrates that.  For a city that seems to resent its neighbor 40 miles to the south so much, it's ironic they also miss the gate from those fans.  Nats fair weather fans, we hate you, please come back.

You can find all the Orioles attendance numbers at this link

 

Most of these are valid points, which I acknowledge in my post - OF COURSE the losing incessantly was a huge factor. And thanks, I obviously looked at attendance numbers, which I referenced at length in my post. However, it’s pretty simple to me: do you dispute that the arrival of the Nationals, 40 miles away and located in the larger of the two metropolises from which the Orioles drew attendance, had a substantial impact on the gate? Not the only impact, but certainly a substantial one? That’s all I’m saying. I thought that was clear, 

I understand you’re a DC guy, but it’s kind of illogical to argue impact. And on your comment about resenting DC fans....not me, friend. Their money is still green.

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Just now, ReclaimTheCrown said:

Most of these are valid points, which I acknowledge in my post - OF COURSE the losing incessantly was a huge factor. And thanks, I obviously looked at attendance numbers, which I referenced at length in my post. However, it’s pretty simple to me: do you dispute that the arrival of the Nationals, 40 miles away and located in the larger of the two metropolises from which the Orioles drew attendance, had a substantial impact on the gate? Not the only impact, but certainly a substantial one? That’s all I’m saying. I thought that was clear, 

I understand you’re a DC guy, but it’s kind of illogical to argue impact. And on your comment about resenting DC fans....not me, friend. Their money is still green.

You mention the impact on revenues; well, from 2015-2018 the Orioles spent over half-a-billion on payroll.  Without the Nats, would there be a MASN?

Explain how over 1/3 of the fans disappeared before the Nats arrived.    Over 1.1M fans bailed in 2019 compared to 2014, a 47% drop.   To me, those examples are what I would call substantial.

Frankly, any attempt by you or me to quantify exactly how much the Nats presence has on the gate would be nothing more than a SWAG.  It is straightforward to see the impact of the W/L record.

 Tell me, if you lived in the DC suburbs today, would you make the long commute to Camden Yards, Nats or no Nats?   As I mentioned elsewhere, my commute this season from Baltimore to see them in Nats park was nearly 2 hours one-way during a late August weeknight.

 

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17 hours ago, AnythingO's said:

 I lived in MO for years in the early to mid 1990s and while the Redbirds haven't had the dark years like the O's, their Midwest.fans I ran into were rabid and knowledgeable. They expect the kind of dominance the NYY had and were very frustrated. They never waivered in their loyalty and they didn't bitch like we do. They just expect better 

 

 

It'll get better when we start winning. It's going to take a lot of consistent winning though. Which I still believe is a tangible thing in the not too distant future.

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