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Frobby

A look at every $100 mm+ contract: the good, the bad and the ugly

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59 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Jayson Werth: a similar case, $21.3 short of his $126 mm contract by fWAR, but $60 mm+ short by rWAR.    What makes his case a little tough is that he did bring a certain moxie to DC, and the team did make the playoffs in 4 of his 7 seasons, even if that was sometimes in spite of him rather than because of him.   In the end, he really was only healthy and playing well in 2 of his 7 seasons in DC.    So, I put him in the disaster category but I can see some contrary arguments.

Nats take was Werth would bring "moxie" or legitimacy to them.  See we can spend money, and if we spend way more than we should pretty good players will come here.  We're not Cleveland or Pittsburgh!

My take was they signed a 31-year-old coming off a career year to a 7-year-deal for more than $100M.  That's a cardinal sin for a GM.  You're basically saying "I don't understand how aging in baseball works, or I just don't care."  They were lucky they got two good years out of seven.

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1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Nats take was Werth would bring "moxie" or legitimacy to them.  See we can spend money, and if we spend way more than we should pretty good players will come here.  We're not Cleveland or Pittsburgh!

My take was they signed a 31-year-old coming off a career year to a 7-year-deal for more than $100M.  That's a cardinal sin for a GM.  You're basically saying "I don't understand how aging in baseball works, or I just don't care."  They were lucky they got two good years out of seven.

Modern version of this is Hosmer in SD. 

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4 hours ago, eddie83 said:

Modern version of this is Hosmer in SD. 

Not really.   Hosmer signed before his age 28 season.    

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6 hours ago, Frobby said:

Not really.   Hosmer signed before his age 28 season.    

Point was it was a move by a team not known for spending money to make a statement. 

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18 hours ago, eddie83 said:

Modern version of this is Hosmer in SD. 

Kind of, at least on the team mistakenly thinking a poor signing will give them legitimacy front.  Werth was better, but four years older, and in 2019 dollars more expensive.

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It's time for the 2020 update to this thread.    In MLB history, there have now been 87 contracts that were $100 mm+ when they were signed, through the 2020 season.    However, the actual value of a few of those suddenly fell below $100 mm due to the partial season this year.   I've left them on the list if they were $100 mm originally, and in all the active contracts I've adjusted the contact amount to account for the fact that players only received 37% of their expected 2020 salary (or 0% for those who opted out), but also listed the original contract amount.

Of the 87, I now count them this way: 17 players who earned or exceeded their contracts, 32 definite disasters, 3 looking good at this point, 4 likely to suck, 5 that were mild disappointments, and 26 where it's too early to tell.    Of the 87 contracts, 38 are ongoing right now.   I'm going to comment on a few of the contracts in a later post, but for now, here's how I categorize the list of 87 (see the OP for an explanation of methodology and color scheme):

Player earned or exceeded his salary (17 contracts, in order of size of contract):

 

ARod I (2001-10) $252 mm, 71.4 rWAR, 70.0 fWAR, $339 mm value (opted out after $168.4 mm paid, $253 mm earned)($84.6 mm surplus before opt out; $87 mm surplus incl. opt out)

Kershaw (2014-20, incl. one arb. year) $200.3 mm (was $215 mm) 33.9 rWAR, 35.2 fWAR, $279 mm gross value, $267 mm net value with arb. discount ($66.7 mm surplus; contract now extended one more season at additional cost of $28 mm)

Scherzer (2015-21) $198 mm (was $210 mm), 36.7 rWAR, 34.3 fWAR, $275.6 mm value ($77.6 mm surplus with a year remaining)

Jeter (2001-10)($189 mm, 41.2 rWAR, 46.8 fWAR, $222 mm value ($33 mm surplus)

Posey (2013-21, incl. 3 pre-FA years), $142.5 mm (opted out of 2020; was $164 mm), 29.1 rWAR, 36.8 fWAR, $288.3 mm gross value, $223.5 mm value net of arb discount ($81 mm surplus with  a year remaining)

Ramirez (2001-08) $160 mm, 36.6 rWAR, 32.5 fWAR, $150 mm value ($10 mm deficit)

Hamels (2013-18, w/ 2019 option) $156 mm, 29.7 rWAR, 23.4 fWAR, $182.7 mm value ($26.7 mm surplus)

Cabrera I (2008-13, incl. 2 arb years) $152 mm, 46.5 rWAR, 47.1 fWAR, $322.1 mm gross value, $309.2 net of arb discount ($157.2 mm surplus)

Greinke I (2013-18) $147 mm, 29.9 rWAR, 23.2 fWAR, $181.9 mm value (opted out after $70 mm, 17.5 rWAR, 13.2 fWAR, $101.7 mm), $31.7 mm surplus as of opt out, $34.9 mm incl. opt out years

Trout I (2015-20, incl. 3 arb. years) $123.1 mm (was $144 mm), 46.7 rWAR, 46.8 fWAR, $374.3 mm gross value, $287.5 net of arb discount ($154.4 mm surplus; contract extended and modified before 2019 season)

Verlander (2015-19) $140 mm (29.8 rWAR, 25.6 fWAR, $205.2 mm value (had a vesting option for 2020 that has been restructured to a 2-year extention) ($60.5 mm surplus)

Tanaka (2014-20) $138.6 17.6 rWAR, 18.9 fWAR, $150.3 mm value ($11.7 mm surplus)

Freeman (2014-21, incl. 3 pre-FA years), $121.1 mm (6 years, 29.6 rWAR, 30.9 fWAR, $245.2 mm gross value, $204.6 mm value net of arb discounts ($83.5 mm surplus with a year remaining) 

Holliday (2010-16) $120 mm, 20.8 rWAR, 24.1 fWAR, $167.3 mm value ($47.3 mm surplus)

Beltran (2005-11) $119 mm, 32.2 rWAR, 30.3 fWAR, $167.2 mm vale ($48.2 mm surplus)

Cliff Lee (2011-15) $109 mm, 20.5 rWAR, 19.7 fWAR, $142.5 mm value ($33.5 mm surplus)

Pujols I (2004-11, including 3 arb. years) $100 mm, 60.5 rWAR, 59.1 fWAR, $328.5 mm gross value, $276.5 mm net of arb discount ($176.5 mm surplus)

 

Trending good at this point (3 contracts, in order of size of contract):

 

Votto (2014-23) $214.2 mm (was $225 mm) (7 years, 27.5 rWAR, 24.6 fWAR, $195.0 mm value ($19.2 mm deficit with 3 years remaining)

Strasburg I (2017-23) $153 mm (was $175 mm) (4 years, 15.0 rWAR, 14.0 fWAR, $112.6 mm value ($40.4 mm deficit with 3 years remaining)(opted out after 2019; provided 15.3 rWAR, 14.0 fWAR, $112.2 mm value, $37.2 mm surplus in 2017-19 before opt out)

 

K. Seager (2015-21, incl. 3 pre-FA years) $88 mm (was $100 mm) (6 years, 19.2 rWAR, 18.4 fWAR, $148.2 gross value, $107.8 mm net of arb discount, $19.8 mm surplus with a year remaining)

 

Definite Disasters (32 contracts, in order of size of contract):

 

ARod II (2008-17), $275 mm, 23.4 rWAR , 22.6 fWAR(note: Yankees didn’t have to pay his 2014 salary, so it’s really $250 mm),  $140.3 mm value ($109.7 mm deficit)

Pujols II (2012-21): $235.7 mm (was $254 mm), 13.9 rWAR, 6.2 fWAR (2 years remaining) $43.8 mm ($191.9 mm deficit, a year remaining)

Cabrera II (2016-23) $229.1 mm (was $248 mm), 4.5 rWAR, 5.3 fWAR, $42.8 mm ($186.3 mm deficit, 3 years remaining)

Fielder (2012-20), $214 mm, 6.9 rWAR, 7.5 fWAR , $50.7 mm ($163.3 mm deficit)

Mauer (2011-18) $184 mm, 21.9 rWAR, 18.3 fWAR $134.7 mm ($49.3 mm deficit).

Teixeira (2009-16) $180 mm, 20.6 rWAR, 18.2 fWAR $123.5 ($56.5 mm deficit)

F. Hernandez (2013-19) $175 mm, 16.4 rWAR, 15.9 fWAR, $121.4 mm ($53.6 mm deficit)

Davis (2016-22) $146.5 mm (was $161 mm), -3.3 rWAR, -2.4 fWAR, -$19.5 mm ($166 mm deficit, 2 years remaining)

Kemp (2012-19) $160 mm, 5.1 rWAR , 5.5 fWAR, $42.8 mm ($117.2 mm deficit)

A. Gonzalez (2012-18) $154 mm, 15.7 rWAR, 12.1 fWAR, $88.4 mm ($65.6 mm deficit)

Ellsbury  (2014-20) $153 mm, 9.8 rWAR, 8.1 fWAR, $63 mm ($90 mm deficit)

Crawford (2011-17) $142 mm, 3.7 rWAR, 5.3 fWAR, $39.5 mm ($103.5 mm deficit)

Wright $138 mm, 8.9 rWAR  8.9 fWAR, $67.6 mm ($70.4 mm deficit)

Santana (2008-14) $138 mm, 15.3 rWAR, 13.9 fWAR, $86.6 mm ($51.4 mm deficit)

Soriano (2007-14) $136 mm, 8.9 rWAR 19.0 fWAR , $117.5 mm ($18.5 mm deficit)

Tulowitizki (2014-20) $134 mm, 11.8 rWAR, 10.6 fWAR, $83.1 mm ($50.9 mm deficit)

Choo (2014-20) $116.8 mm (was $130 mm), 8.4 rWAR 8.8 fWAR, $70.2 mm ($46.6 mm deficit)

Zito (2007-13) $126 mm, 3.0 rWAR , 6.5 fWAR, $37.5 mm ($88.5 mm deficit)

Wells (2007-13) $126 mm, 6.9 rWAR, 6.7 fWAR  $39.7 mm ($86.3 mm deficit)

Werth (2011-17) $126 mm, 8.9 rWAR, 14.2 fWAR  , $104.7 mm ($21.3 mm deficit)

Howard (2012-16) $125 mm, -4.5 rWAR, -1.7 fWAR,  -$12.4 mm ($137.4 mm deficit)

Hamilton (2013-17) $125 mm, 3.4 rWAR, 2.8 fWAR, $21.1 mm ($103.9 mm deficit)

Hampton  (2001-08) $121 mm, 4.3 rWAR, 7.9 fWAR, $33.8 mm* ($86.2 mm deficit)

Griffey (2000-2007) $116.5 mm, 13.3 rWAR, 10.4 fWAR, $43.4 mm* ($73.1 mm deficit)

Cain (2013-17) $112.5 mm, -1.1 rWAR, 0.7 fWAR, $5.0 mm ($107.5 mm deficit)

Cespedes (2017-20) $74 mm (was $110 mm), 2.7 rWAR, 2.3 fWAR, $18.7 mm ($$55.3 mm deficit)(note: contract reduced for 2019-2020 due to an off-field injury and he opted out of 2020 after a few games).

Zimmermann (2016-20, 1 year remaining) $94.2 mm (was $110 mm), 1.1 rWAR, 5.0 fWAR, $40.6 mm ($53.6 mm deficit)

Reyes (2012-17) $106 mm 8.8 rWAR, 14.3 fWAR, $104.7 mm ($1.3 mm deficit)

Bailey (2014-19) $105 mm, 0.6 rWAR, 5.7 fWAR, $44.1 mm ($60.9 mm deficit)

Carlos Lee (2007-12) $100 mm 8.7 rWAR, 8.0 fWAR, $52.6 mm ($47.4 mm deficit)

Zimmerman (2014-19) $100 mm, 3.8 rWAR, 5.2 fWAR, $41.4 mm ($58.6 mm deficit)

Braun (2016-20) $94.3 mm (was $105 mm), 7.5 rWAR, 8.2 fWAR, $66.9 mm ($27.4 mm deficit)

 

 

Likely to suck, at this point (4 contracts, in order of size of contract):

 

Price (2016-22) $185 mm (opted out of 2020; was $217 mm) (4 years, 10.8 rWAR, 10.6 fWAR, $85 mm value ($100 mm deficit with 3 years remaining)

Heyward (2016-23) $170.8 mm (was $184 mm) (5 years, 8.4 rWAR, 7.8 fWAR, $62.3 mm ($108.5 mm deficit with  3 years remaining)

Hosmer (2018-25) $131.4 mm (was $144 mm) (3 years, 2.1 rWAR, 0.4 fWAR, $3.3 value $128.1 mm deficit with 5 years remaining)

Cueto (2016-21) $116.8 mm (was $130 mm) (5 years, 8.8 rWAR, 6.8 fWAR, $53.6 mm value ($63.2 mm deficit with a year remaining)

 

Slightly disappointing (5 contracts, in order of size of contract):

 

Sabathia (2009-15) $161 mm, 21.3 rWAR, 24.3 fWAR, $166.7 mm on original deal ; $191 mm, 24.6 rWAR, 26.9 fWAR, $187.8 mm after extended one year to avoid opt out ($5.7 suplus on original deal; $3.2 mm deficit on extended deal)

Lester (2015-20) $142.4 mm (was $155 mm) (13.2 rWAR, 17.1 fWAR, $135.7 mm value ($6.7 mm deficit)

Helton (2003-11) $142 mm, 32.9 rWAR, 28.8 fWAR, $124.0 mm ($18 mm deficit)

Giambi (2002-08) $120 mm, 22.1 rWAR, 21.9 fWAR, $99.9 mm ($20.1 mm deficit)

K. Brown (1999-2005) $105 mm, 22.9 WAR, 27.4 fWAR), $113.5 mm ($8.5 mm surplus)

 

Too soon to tell (26 contracts, in order of fewest years of contract remaining, size of contract): 

 

Greinke II (2016-21) $186.5 mm (was $206.5 mm) (5 years, 18.2 rWAR, 17.5 fWAR, $140.6 mm value, $45.9 mm deficit with a year remaining)

Upton I (2016-21) $119.6 mm (was $132.8 mm) (5 years, 10.0 rWAR, 10.0 fWAR, $79.4 mm value, $40.2 mm deficit, 1 year remaining on original deal)(deal has been restructured)

Andrus (2015-22) $108.5 mm (was $118 mm) (6 years, 13.3 rWAR, 10.2 fWAR, $82.3 mm value ($35.7 mm deficit with 2 years remaining)

JD Martinez (2018-22) $95 mm (was $110 mm) (3 years, 9.0 rWAR, 9.1 fWAR, $64.9 mm value ($30.1 mm deficit with 2 years remaining)

Longoria (2017-22) $90.5 mm (was $100 mm) (4 years, 8.4 rWAR, 5.8 fWAR, $46.4 mm value, $44.1 mm deficit with 2 years remaining)

Cano (2014-23) $221.1 mm (was $240 mm) (7 years, 24.5 rWAR, 22.8 fWAR, $169.8 mm value, $51.3 mm deficit with 3 years remaining)(note: Cano will receive only $176.1 mm due to two PED suspensions without pay, so his deficit from that is only $6.3 mm and he will still have two years left  after suspension concludes)

DeGrom (2019-23) $123 mm (was $137.5 mm) (2 years, 10.2 rWAR, 9.6 fWAR, $77 mm value, $46 mm deficit with 4 years remaining)

Darvish (2018-23) $112.1 mm (was $126 mm) (3 years, 6.2 rWAR, 5.9 fWAR, $46.6 mm value, $65.5 mm deficit with 3 years remaining)

Blackmon (2018-23) $94.8 mm (was $108 mm) (3 years, 3.3 rWAR, 5.6 fWAR, $44.9 mm value, $49.9 mm deficit with 3 years remaining)

Altuve (2018-24) $147.1 mm (was $163.5 m)(3 years, 8.1 rWAR, 8.6 fWAR, $68.5 value, $95 mm deficit with  4 years remaining

Sale (2020-24) $126.1 mm (was $145 mm) (1 year, did not play due to injury), $126.1 mm deficit with 4 years remaining.

Corbin (2019-24) $128 mm (was $140 mm) (2 years, 7.3 rWAR, 6.0 fWAR, $47.7 mm value, $80.3 mm deficit with 4 years remaining)

Goldschmidt 2020-24 $116.1 mm (was $130 mm), 1 year 1.7 rWAR, 2.1 fWAR, $17.2 mm value, $98.9 mm deficit with 4 years remaining.

Wheeler (2020-24) $104.5 mm (was $118 mm), 1 year, 2.9 rWAR, 2.0 fWAR, $15.6 mm value, $88.9 mm deficit with 4 years remaining

Bregman (2020-24) $93.1 mm (was $100 mm), 1 year, 0.8 rWAR, 0.9 fWAR, $7.5 mm value, $85.6 mm deficit with 4 years remaining

Bogaerts (2020-25) $107.4 mm (was $120 mm), 1 year, 1.3 rWAR, 1.9 fWAR, $15.1 mm value

Arenado (2019-26, incl. 1 arb year) $238 mm (was $260 mm) (2 years, 8.1 rWAR, 6.9 fWAR, $55.0 mm value with 6 years remaining)

Rendon (2020-26) $229 mm (was $245 mm), 1 year, 1.8 rWAR, 2.7 fWAR, $21.8 mm value

Strasburg II (2020-26) $223 mm (was $245 mm), 1 year, -0.2 rWAR, 0.0 fWAR, $0.4 mm value

Acuna (2019-26, incl. 3 min salary years and 3 arb years) $99.4 mm (was $100 mm) (2 years, 7.8 rWAR, 8.0 fWAR, $64.0 mm gross value with 6 years remaining)

Stanton (2015-27, including 2 pre-FA years), $308.6 mm (was $325 mm) (6 years, 19.3 rWAR, 18.1 fWAR, $143.9 mm value with 7 years remaining)

Cole (2020-28) $301.3 mm (was $324 mm), 1 year, 2.2 rWAR, 1.4 fWAR, $11.6 mm

Machado (2019-28) $281.1 mm (was $300 mm) (2 years, 5.4 rWAR, 5.7 fWAR, $45.2 mm value with 8 years remaining)

Yelich (2020-28) $207.1 mm (was $215 mm), 1 year, 0.2 rWAR, 0.7 fWAR, $5.8 mm

Trout II (2019-30) $403.8 mm (was $426.5 mm) (2 years, 9.8 rWAR, 11.2 fWAR, $89.9 mm value with 10 years remaining)

Harper (2019-31), $313.6 mm (was $330 mm) (2 year2, 6.0 rWAR, 6.2 fWAR, $49.4 mm value with 11 years remaining)

 

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Man, Davis is easily the worst contract of all time.

EDIT:  I guess not "easily", Ryan Howard's contract is pretty terrible, too.  But I think Davis is going to widen the gap some more this year.  

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2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Man, Davis is easily the worst contract of all time.

EDIT:  I guess not "easily", Ryan Howard's contract is pretty terrible, too.  But I think Davis is going to widen the gap some more this year.  

I'm hoping he never leaves the bench.

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Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I'm hoping he never leaves the bench.

Eh, I hope he plays and plays a lot.  He just needs to keep showing how bad he is, make it even more irrefutable (even though it already is) so that it can't be ignored.  Stashing him on the bench does nothing.  They just need to keep rolling him out there.  

He probably doesn't throw in the towel, but hopefully that's an option, too.

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1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Man, Davis is easily the worst contract of all time.

EDIT:  I guess not "easily", Ryan Howard's contract is pretty terrible, too.  But I think Davis is going to widen the gap some more this year.  

Sort of depends how you want to measure it.   Right now Pujols II and Cabrera II have a bigger gap between dollars paid and production than Davis.   But at least Pujols and Cabrera have had positive value over the life of their contracts.    Davis can’t say that.    

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2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Sort of depends how you want to measure it.   Right now Pujols II and Cabrera II have a bigger gap between dollars paid and production than Davis.   But at least Pujols and Cabrera have had positive value over the life of their contracts.    Davis can’t say that.    

Good points, I'll add another:  Pujols and Cabrera are future Hall of Famers, there's some sort of value (not much, but some) in having these guys around to chase counting numbers and add to their legacies.  Can't say that for Davis, either.

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As a holistic fandom damage assessment, how much if any is it fair to factor in the Machado meta of it?  Would Manny have taken 100% or 115% of that same contract's total value that day?   Obviously structuring differently for some Arb years in the beginning.   Just as I'm sure Colorado won't enjoy Arenado and Story both in '22, I think today's Orioles won't support two like that, but I feel at least we are better off than Cleveland and won't have to beg off the chance at ONE statue-caliber icon.

Manny would have had to bear the 2018 crash ala Ripken in '88, but he'd be a nice piece to have today (and maybe we wouldn't even have DFA'd Renato Nunez in that parallel universe!)   We could even still have Kjerstad with our Adley as I doubt '19 Machado adding some Orioles wins would have been so many to lift us out of his "regular slot" range.  Machado's trade value is more in the July 2018 if the move to ship him out is the one you still take (Lux not Yusniel, etc).

MVP-caliber '20 Machado on this year's team I think would have kept the Blue Jays finale live, and I'd bet would have earned Abreu's trophy if that went well.   I was going to say warm us this winter "waiting for Adley", but Rutschman himself might have been Zunino'ed in that dream world, bolstering Hot Means and whatever Bowie goodies we might have deployed for 2-3 days on the opening weekend.

Meta-wise I guess Angels fandom could lament such a bad Trout sidekick choice.

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11 hours ago, Philip said:

Tremendous amount  of work... You must be retired.

Tired, but not retired.   The original post from last year took a long time to put together.    The update took about 5 hours I’d say.   I’ve been keeping this list for several years but last year was the first time I calculated the surplus/deficit for each player.   

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