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Can_of_corn

Means AL ROY Finalist

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8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ll be happy if Means beats out Lowe for second place.    

Means had more WAR than Alvarez.  4.6 vs 3.7. I don't see why Means shouldn't be given a chance. 

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1 minute ago, atomic said:

Means had more WAR than Alvarez.  4.6 vs 3.7. I don't see why Means shouldn't be given a chance. 

Alvarez didn’t join the Astros until June 9, and I expect the voters to take that into account in his favor.   

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3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Alvarez didn’t join the Astros until June 9, and I expect the voters to take that into account in his favor.   

Why?  His missing 2 months should count against him.  

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4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Alvarez didn’t join the Astros until June 9, and I expect the voters to take that into account in his favor.   

Being on the one of the best teams in baseball instead of one of the worst is also going to help.  Voters will have seen more of Alvarez.

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1 minute ago, atomic said:

Why?  His missing 2 months should count against him.  

I could argue that either way.    He very likely would have beaten 4.1 rWAR by a wide margin if he’d been called up sooner.    
 

By the way, fWAR has it 3.8 Alvarez, 3.0 Means, 2.6 Lowe.    I generally like rWAR better for pitchers for measuring current performance (as opposed to predicting future performance), but some voters may take that into account.   

I also think voters often give an edge to (1) the guy on the better team, and (2) the guy they think Is likely to have the better career.   

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Alvarez is a strong horse in this race, but for Means to do so well with this team playing defense behind him is not insignificant.

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9 minutes ago, Philip said:

Alvarez is a strong horse in this race, but for Means to do so well with this team playing defense behind him is not insignificant.

Except his FIP was around a run lower than his ERA so it would hard to make a case the defense hurt him.

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Means pitching to his numbers of this team should count for more.  Alvarez had protection.  Both had great seasons. But it's silly if being on a winning team is a factor.  (Not saying it isn't true)

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9 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Except his FIP was around a run lower than his ERA so it would hard to make a case the defense hurt him.

You mean his FIP was about a run higher, not lower, than his ERA.

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11 hours ago, atomic said:

Why?  His missing 2 months should count against him.  

It wasn't his fault, he had a .343/.443/.742 line in AAA.  And pretty much from the day he was called up he was one of the best hitters in the league.

If you average rWAR and fWAR Alvarez and Means are very close in total value, but Alvarez lapped the field in production per unit of play.

I couldn't find any definition or guidance on voting for the ROY, but I doubt it says somewhere that the voters should prioritize total value over per-game impact.  If that was the case they wouldn't have given McCovey the award in '59 when he only played 52 games, they should have given it to the Phils' Jim Owens who started 30 games and had 221 innings pitched.  Or Joe Koppe or George Altman, who each played the whole year.

 

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Here's Alvarez' total 2019 numbers including AAA:

143 games
622 PA
108 runs
171 hits
42 doubles
50 homers
149 RBI
2 steals/1 caught
90 walks
144 Ks
.325/.424/.690

.690 is Babe Ruth's career slugging percentage, so that's not too shabby.

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