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Trade Bait 2020

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2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

With Castellanos still on the market I think there is no chance we traded Mancini, and should tell us what his value is to other teams.  Even though I'm with the whole tear everything to the ground, which we're very close, I think at this point that Mancini is worth more to us than he would net us in a trade.  Maybe that will be different come deadline time.  

I don't see how the Givens market is "hot".  We haven't heard any rumors regarding him other than that the Phils and Yanks were interested at last year's trade deadline.  6 weeks till pitchers report for ST.  I don't think Givens is a good fit for us, because we'll use him more of a firestopper, than as a closer.  That's not a great way to build value, unless he absolutely crushes it.  He won't have too many easy innings.  

Just to add to this, I think trade value and signing value are two completely different things. I brought this up before, and got blasted for it, but I think Mazara is probably the closest we're going to get to a 2020 trade value comparison for Mancini. It's not exactly apples to apples, but it's in the ballpark. I also think we'd be wise to primarily play Mancini at 1B this season. If he's able to show that he can be a slightly above average fielder at 1B I think that will increase his value and his suitors. 

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2 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Just to add to this, I think trade value and signing value are two completely different things. I brought this up before, and got blasted for it, but I think Mazara is probably the closest we're going to get to a 2020 trade value comparison for Mancini. It's not exactly apples to apples, but it's in the ballpark. I also think we'd be wise to primarily play Mancini at 1B this season. If he's able to show that he can be a slightly above average fielder at 1B I think that will increase his value and his suitors. 

At this point I think it is what it is with Mancini.  Teams are tight with their prospects nowadays, and they especially parting with them for a 1B/DH type, which let's face it, that is what a contender would view Mancini as.  Trey will be our All Star, our face of the franchise, until we compete, or he gets too expensive to lose with. 

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47 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

At this point I think it is what it is with Mancini.  Teams are tight with their prospects nowadays, and they especially parting with them for a 1B/DH type, which let's face it, that is what a contender would view Mancini as.  Trey will be our All Star, our face of the franchise, until we compete, or he gets too expensive to lose with. 

Trey wasn't our All Star this year. Personally, I think the O's are a pretty faceless franchise, and they should remain that way until they stop sucking. Let's see how he hits if they adjust the laces on the balls this year. I'm guessing he'll be back to where he was in 2017, which was good enough for him to be a 2.1 rWAR player. Not bad, but nothing special.

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1 hour ago, mdbdotcom said:

Trey wasn't our All Star this year. Personally, I think the O's are a pretty faceless franchise, and they should remain that way until they stop sucking. Let's see how he hits if they adjust the laces on the balls this year. I'm guessing he'll be back to where he was in 2017, which was good enough for him to be a 2.1 rWAR player. Not bad, but nothing special.

It's pretty hard to market a faceless franchise. And Mancini may not have been our all-star, but I think he definitely stepped up as the leader of the team. I'm not advocating that we don't trade him, I just don't want to see him traded just for the sake of trading him (if that makes sense). 

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26 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

It's pretty hard to market a faceless franchise. And Mancini may not have been our all-star, but I think he definitely stepped up as the leader of the team. I'm not advocating that we don't trade him, I just don't want to see him traded just for the sake of trading him (if that makes sense). 

Trey took over the Chris Davis role of big, smiling white guy who is happy to speak to the press any time. Face of the team by default. I don't care if they trade him as long as they get something for him.

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1 hour ago, mdbdotcom said:

Trey wasn't our All Star this year. Personally, I think the O's are a pretty faceless franchise, and they should remain that way until they stop sucking. Let's see how he hits if they adjust the laces on the balls this year. I'm guessing he'll be back to where he was in 2017, which was good enough for him to be a 2.1 rWAR player. Not bad, but nothing special.

When it comes to offensive stats, I really only care about how guys hit relative to the league.   If a guy posts a 135 OPS+, as Mancini did in 2019, I don’t really care if that translates to .899 OPS (as it did last year) or to .852 (as it would have in 2014 when run scoring was at a low point).     So, I’m indifferent what they do to the laces, so long as Mancini hits well relative to the league.   

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3 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

. If they're going to keep a guy to sell tickets it's going to be Mancini, 

I don’t live in Baltimore, so perhaps I shouldn’t comment at all, but if I am in the Baltimore area, I’m going to buy tickets to see our new pitchers and good defense. I’m not going to buy a ticket to watch Mancini lumbering around RF like a T-34. I can’t think of anyone who would buy or not buy based on his presence. But I bet a lotta folks would buy a ticket to watch Akin or Lowther or Baumann or Zimmermann or Kremer.

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3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

When it comes to offensive stats, I really only care about how guys hit relative to the league.   If a guy posts a 135 OPS+, as Mancini did in 2019, I don’t really care if that translates to .899 OPS (as it did last year) or to .852 (as it would have in 2014 when run scoring was at a low point).     So, I’m indifferent what they do to the laces, so long as Mancini hits well relative to the league.   

His OPS+ in 2017 was 120. I have to believe that one reason it went to 135 in 2019 was that fielders couldn't get to as many of the balls he hit because they left the park.

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3 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Not so sure about Castellanos...there have been quite a few teams linked to him. If they're going to keep a guy to sell tickets it's going to be Mancini, so I don't imagine they'll move him unless they're overwhelmed. And at this point I think Givens has lost so much shine he's probably more valuable to us then what we could get in return. So in a nutshell I don't think we currently have any "hot" trade commodities. 

They don' sell tickets.

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Just now, Philip said:

I don’t live in Baltimore, so perhaps I shouldn’t comment at all, but if I am in the Baltimore area, I’m going to buy tickets to see our new pitchers and good defense. I’m not going to buy a ticket to watch Mancini lumbering around RF like a T-34. I can’t think of anyone who would buy or not buy based on his presence. But I bet a lotta folks would buy a ticket to watch Akin or Lowther or Baumann or Zimmermann or Kremer.

There are far more people who want to see players like Trey Mancini. Even if the names you listed come up on Opening Day and are successful - I'd still argue that it'd take an entire season before those players had any name recognition amongst the average fan. 

 

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7 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

His OPS+ in 2017 was 120. I have to believe that one reason it went to 135 in 2019 was that fielders couldn't get to as many of the balls he hit because they left the park.

So you’re saying you think he benefitted disproportionately to other players.     That’s possible, but I’d need some evidence before I believed it.    Anyway, players aren’t metronomes, and I can’t say what Mancini will do next year, but I do think he maintained a really good approach at the plate all year and I expect him to have another good season in 2020.  

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1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

It's pretty hard to market a faceless franchise. And Mancini may not have been our all-star, but I think he definitely stepped up as the leader of the team. I'm not advocating that we don't trade him, I just don't want to see him traded just for the sake of trading him (if that makes sense). 

I'd guess it'll be Mancini, Means, and .... Severino or Hays on the poster? Pretty slim pickings. 

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I felt after Bundy that Elias might move on to Mancini, but that Castellanos/Ozuna were similar options for just cash.  They still are, plus several of the seats I thought might fit have been backfilled by different options - Cincinnati seems to be close on a Japanese crossover, Arizona's gone for Kole Calhoun, the White Sox Encarnacion.

It almost feels more like the chance for the Castellanos/Ozuna/Puig loser heading for Nelson Cruz 1-year/$8M land is greater than a dynamic Mancini market developing.  We may have to wait and see who the Injury Gods plan to come claim in 2020.  If the Angels have the gumption to move on from Pujols completely (as much as they've supported Trout, it's still bad practice if they don't get Eric Thames or even Mitch Moreland unless they view Fletcher/LaStella as the right side), that could be one more slot, plus Severino/Sisco might offer them a little value.

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12 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

I felt after Bundy that Elias might move on to Mancini, but that Castellanos/Ozuna were similar options for just cash.  They still are, plus several of the seats I thought might fit have been backfilled by different options - Cincinnati seems to be close on a Japanese crossover, Arizona's gone for Kole Calhoun, the White Sox Encarnacion.

It almost feels more like the chance for the Castellanos/Ozuna/Puig loser heading for Nelson Cruz 1-year/$8M land is greater than a dynamic Mancini market developing.  We may have to wait and see who the Injury Gods plan to come claim in 2020.  If the Angels have the gumption to move on from Pujols completely (as much as they've supported Trout, it's still bad practice if they don't get Eric Thames or even Mitch Moreland unless they view Fletcher/LaStella as the right side), that could be one more slot, plus Severino/Sisco might offer them a little value.

45 days till ST starts. Nobody is going to trade away prospects for Mancini with guys like Castellanos and Ozuna out there. Even a guy like Puig. 

Our best hope to trade Mancini is that he’s the best bat available at the deadline, and a team that doesn’t want to take on a lot of payroll is on him. 

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2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

45 days till ST starts. Nobody is going to trade away prospects for Mancini with guys like Castellanos and Ozuna out there. Even a guy like Puig. 

Our best hope to trade Mancini is that he’s the best bat available at the deadline, and a team that doesn’t want to take on a lot of payroll is on him. 

I completely agree, but you have to believe that he was shopped before this last trade deadline too (with no luck). That makes me think that teams might view Mancini as more of a replacement for an injured player than a franchise building block type of guy. If that's true the circumstances and timing are really going to have to be perfect (i.e., a contender loses a key bat) for us to get something significant in return for him. Otherwise it probably just makes sense to keep him. I'm fine with just trading guys like Cashner for pennies on the dollar, but if that's all we can get for Mancini then I think he's more valuable to the team. Again, not necessarily talking about wins and loses more so from a marketing/public relations perspective. 

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