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Tony-OH

Who will be the #5 and #6 prospects?

Who will be the #5 and #6 prospects?   

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  1. 1. Who will be the #5 and #6 prospects?

    • Diaz and Hays
    • Diaz and Baumann
    • Hays and Diaz
    • Hays and Baumann
    • Kremer and Diaz


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2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I'm shocked Baumann isn't an option at #5. I think some would have taken that bait. Maybe me. Still not sure how I'll vote. 

Here's what you know then..... He's not #5. :D

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Something to consider here, the next four guys on the list are pretty similar prospects in my mind. We could build a case to switch any of the four around to make one over the other, but as always, we have to make a final call and if players have close ceilings, you go with the guy that is more ready.

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I decided to try not to guess what you're thinking and just go with what I might think. The options are Diaz, Hays, Baumann and Kremer.

  • Hays has demonstrated an advanced hit tool and above average defense in CF. Injuries, and resulting consistency, are his problems. Also, not great OBP. I think I compared him to an Adam Jones about 6 months ago. I actually think he might have better contact rates and defense, but somewhat less power than AJ. His ceiling might be there, at least. A former top 100 prospect who still has that talent, IMO.
     
  • Diaz is a big, strong, RH hitter with advanced plate discipline. He has performed as a young player, but has hit a bump in the road since the trade. Still, his overall numbers this year compared to the league were strong, and (as Frobby noted elsewhere) that came while still looking injured even when he was playing. Another former top 100 prospect who still has the talent.
     
  • Baumann prospect status is floating on helium. He was awesome this year and held velocity through complete games. If he comes up with a 3rd pitch, he's got huge upside. Still, he has #4/5 starter/reliever risk in the profile, I think. Luke made the case that he could be compared to the #99 prospect on another list. He's a very nice prospect.
     
  • Kremer also didn't have a great year. He was rated highly on this board last year and really came on toward the end of this year and in the AFL. I really like the profile and think he might just stick as a decent starter. Still, he doesn't have the upside of the three above.

I picked Diaz and Hays. The first because of his advanced approach and what I think is power on the come. The second because he has real positional value and a really nice hit tool. If you tell me Baumann is #6, I won't be shocked. I'll actually be surprised if he's not at this point. His star has risen, and for good reason. Kremer would be a surprise to me at this point in the list, even though I think he's a future rotation piece who could slot above Akin and Lowther. I'd be surprised if he slotted above Baumann at this point though.

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9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Something to consider here, the next four guys on the list are pretty similar prospects in my mind. We could build a case to switch any of the four around to make one over the other, but as always, we have to make a final call and if players have close ceilings, you go with the guy that is more ready.

I was actually about to make this point, but I was already too long winded. I do think I'd nitpick and argue that you have 3 similarly ranked guys, and then Kremer almost in a group of his own. That's my opinion. Will look forward to reading your more informed opinion.

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2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I was actually about to make this point, but I was already too long winded. I do think I'd nitpick and argue that you have 3 similarly ranked guys, and then Kremer almost in a group of his own. That's my opinion. Will look forward to reading your more informed opinion.

Assuming Kremer is in the next four all together of course! ;) I will say this just for fun and to see who is paying attention, one of these guys is not in the next four.

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22 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Assuming Kremer is in the next four all together of course! ;) I will say this just for fun and to see who is paying attention, one of these guys is not in the next four.

I tried to think of who is if it's not him. I guess we'll find out. On upside, Harvey and Gunnar make sense, but I personally think they're both below the 3 I mentioned for different reasons. Either way, this is a fun learning experience for me. Love the new information that comes through these write-ups every year.

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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Something to consider here, the next four guys on the list are pretty similar prospects in my mind. We could build a case to switch any of the four around to make one over the other, but as always, we have to make a final call and if players have close ceilings, you go with the guy that is more ready.

I think all the options are plausible.   Luke was quite vocal in his support of Baumann all during the year, so that’s why I picked one of the options with him in it.    I really like Hays, always have, so I went with Hays and Baumann.    If I was just choosing based on my own preferences I probably would have said Hays and Diaz.    I really like all these players, though.    

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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Assuming Kremer is in the next four all together of course! ;) I will say this just for fun and to see who is paying attention, one of these guys is not in the next four.

Gotta be Kremer I would think.  Concerns with decreased velocity in 2019 and lack of a quality third pitch?

Henderson or Lowther sneaks in the top eight is my guess.  Maybe Rom. 

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16 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Gotta be Kremer I would think.  Concerns with decreased velocity in 2019 and lack of a quality third pitch?

Henderson or Lowther sneaks in the top eight is my guess.  Maybe Rom. 

I really like Rom (had him in my top 15 after 2018 before anyone else), but I don’t think he’s top 8, and probably not top 10 yet.   If he does well at Frederick he could be there next year.   

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Kremer has tremendous upside but I don't think he did quite enough. I had Bauman as a possible #4 so I am sticking with him. I like Hays above Diaz. Similar ceiling but Hays already has established he is the first in line for CF and will get a chance.

Lots of good choices.

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These picks are hard.   But I have to go with Kremer/Diaz.

Tony is mostly about ceiling.   Not always but mostly.

Tony had Kremer #4 and Diaz #5 last year.     Did Hays or Baumann do enough to pass them?  I don't think so if Tony is thinking ceiling.

Kremer has the chance to be a 4 pitch starter.   His two best pitches are is curve and is fastball with movement.   I think there is enough speed different between the two pitches that it help keep hitters off balance.   Kremer had a 2.58 ERA with over an K and inning as Frederick.   He carried that forward to AA.   2.98 with over a K per inning.   

Diaz play last season at 22 years old.   I think being younger plays a role here.   He is also rated a Top 100 player by BA.   

Hays and Diaz are very close in talent.  Hays is a little faster and has a better arm but he is 15 months older.  If Elias was doing the ranking I think Hays would be ahead of Diaz because Elias ranks C, SS and CF ahead of corner players.   But again, Tony is about ceiling.  And last year he rated Diaz with a higher ceiling that Hays.   Both had so-so minor league seasons due to injury.   Hays did well in his month in the majors.   But Tony says Hays hasn't proven anything in the majors.

Baumann has two above average hard pitches in his fastball and slider.   His off speed pitches and his control has a ways to go.   He did not have a K and inning at AA.  Last year Tony had him at #20.   He will take a big jump but will he pass the other 3?  I don't think so.

What I think may be different but what we are trying to do here is guess what Tony/Luke think.

 

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Gotta be Hays and Diaz. Hays gets the nod due to already showing well in the big league and play above average CF defense, even if I think Diaz will be better at the plate with a higher OBP and power. Baumann is after them for me, he needs develop at least an average 3rd pitch, he's definitely trending up though. Kremer really just hasn't ticked up like I was hoping. All of his pitches are average, except the curve may be above average or plus, and a 91 mph fastball might be below average nowadays.

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