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Tony-OH

2019 #5 Prospect Austin Hays - CF

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3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I guess the injuries are the reason behind his wild swings in performance?  .958 OPS between A and AA at 21.  Then .703 in AA the next.  Then .763 between three levels this year, and a .947 in the majors.  The high end looks great, but what's real?  He had Jones' achilles heel, in that his career high in walks is 27.  Just once I'd like a prospect who walks 80 times a year.

i really do think Hays' lack of performance at times have been directly tied to rustiness and lack of timing because of the frequent layoffs with injuries. Whenever he's been fully healthy for awhile he has put up really good numbers including the last 25 games off AAA and his major league time last September.

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4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

i really do think Hays' lack of performance at times have been directly tied to rustiness and lack of timing because of the frequent layoffs with injuries. Whenever he's been fully healthy for awhile he has put up really good numbers including the last 25 games off AAA and his major league time last September.

The O's fan in me wants to blame the struggles of Diaz and Hays on injuries primarily. I'm hoping that's the cause.

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21 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I expect Hays' 2020 production to take a step back from what we saw. The question to me is, how much? We'll see.

Why? He’s had serious injury problems, but when healthy he’s been good. His defense appears excellent, and he seems able to compensate for his flaws.

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1 minute ago, Philip said:

Why? He’s had serious injury problems, but when healthy he’s been good. His defense appears excellent, and he seems able to compensate for his flaws.

Well, if “a step back” means he’s not going to put up a .947 OPS or play at a 5.6 WAR pace, then I’d have to agree.    

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17 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

The O's fan in me wants to blame the struggles of Diaz and Hays on injuries primarily. I'm hoping that's the cause.

Just so long as they're healthy going forward.  Luis Matos' struggles could have been injury related, and then his MLB career was over at 27.

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30 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Matos and Finley (pre-enhancement stage) were never at Hays' level. I do not think it will be "astounding" to see Hays play at a Adam Jones level at some point. as they have very similar skill sets. Hays was slowed by injuries and was not fast tracked through the minors like Jones was because he went to college vs signing after high school.

They have very similar tools and although I agree that if Hays is mentioned in the same breath as Jones we should consider Hays a significant success, but I wouldn't say it would be shocking if we do at some point. 

I think Hays could reach Adam Jones' peak level of production if he's healthy and develops at a reasonable amount.  But I think it's pretty unlikely he has Jones' career value because Adam had been an established major leaguer for several years by the time he's Hays' age.

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As durable as he became, Jones did miss August 2008 with a broken left foot from a foul ball, and September 2009 with a left ankle sprain, so I'm open to the idea Hays's ultimate level of brittleness is still unknown.  I think the aging curve vs. Jones is a pretty big separator though.

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11 minutes ago, Philip said:

Why? He’s had serious injury problems, but when healthy he’s been good. His defense appears excellent, and he seems able to compensate for his flaws.

Yeah, along the lines of Frobby's post, I think his performance in September represented a hot streak. His OPS is more likely in the .750-.850 range over time, if healthy and not a failure.

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14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, if “a step back” means he’s not going to put up a .947 OPS or play at a 5.6 WAR pace, then I’d have to agree.    

Looking at his last year in college through 2019, every time Hays hits .300 he OPSes .900+.  So that's the secret: as long as he's in the running for the batting title we have an MVP candidate on our hands.  

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2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Looking at his last year in college through 2019, every time Hays hits .300 he OPSes .900+.  So that's the secret: as long as he's in the running for the batting title we have an MVP candidate on our hands.  

He has a good contact to damage ratio, as Buck liked to say.

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40 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'd forgotten about that.  But I think most players who OPS 1.085 walk a fair amount.  In the majors his career high was 60 in about 600 PAs, and averaged 49 per 600.  

We've had a few players in the past few years that walked a fair amount.  Nick walked 99 times in 2004.  Brian Roberts and Chris Davis both had multiple seasons with more than 80 walks.  I believe that being a good hitter and having having at minimum, gap doubles power, is a prerequisite for walking a lot, and we haven't had a lot of good hitters.

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I see that Trey Mancini walked 63 times this year.   That’s a very respectable number.   I recall when he was raking in the minors there were concerns expressed about his relatively low walk rate.    Hopefully Hays (and Mountcastle) are able to make the same kinds of adjustments at the major league level after gaining some experience.  

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2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Just so long as they're healthy going forward.  Luis Matos' struggles could have been injury related, and then his MLB career was over at 27.

Matos did have a 4 WIN season as a 24-year old but they soon found the holes in his swing. He never really had the minor league success that Hays had. Matos career minor league slash 268/.331/.389/.719 pales in comparison to Hays' so far .286/.327/.508/.835.

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