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Tony-OH

2019 #11 Prospect: Dean Kremer - RHP

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For some reason I thought Kremer's curve ball was a hammer.  Only a 50!  And a 90-92 FB.  Very fringy. Thanks for the update!

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Tony, you are the man when it comes to evaluating players and I accept what you say because you have actually seen Kremer pitch as opposed to me sitting here in front of a computer.  But I must say I am a bit confused by  going this negative on Kremer.

 In 2018 he had 8 starts at Bowie after being acquired.   He went 4-2, 2.58 ERA,  45.1 IP,  53 K, 228 average,  1.12 WHIP.   You were so excited about him you made him the O's #4 prospect.

He pitched 2019 at 23 year old which is a good age for AA.  He had the lat injury early and did not pitch in a minor league game until May 8th.   He had  two starts  at Frederick and two more at Bowie in May while he came back from his injury.    However In June, July and August at Bowie he regained his form.  He had 13 starts, 75 IP,   2.28 ERA  79 K, .222 avg,   1.12 WHIP.   He picked right up from where he was in 2018 at Bowie and dominated for two months.   So much so that Elias promoted him to AAA. You said you saw him pitch from 92-95 with a plus CB in August.

After being promoted to Norfolk he had 4 starts and didn't do well but that was 4  starts.  He had to adjust the major league superball which may take some time. Neither Baumann or Lowther who you have passing Kremer had to deal with the major league ball last season.

He then went to the AZ fall league where he pitched well and you say he developed a new pitch.  

All in all It doesn't seem like a year were he should have dropped from #4 to #11.   Thus my confusion.    You know tons more about this than me and I accept your evaluation but wow  what a difference between where you were with him last year and where you are now.

 

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34 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Tony, you are the man when it comes to evaluating players and I accept what you say because you have actually seen Kremer pitch as opposed to me sitting here in front of a computer.  But I must say I am a bit confused by  going this negative of Kremer.

 In 2018 he had 8 starts at Bowie after being acquired.   He went 4-2, 2.58 ERA,  45.1 IP,  53 K, 228 average,  1.21 WHIP.   You were so excited about him you made him the O's #4 prospect.

He pitched 2019 at 23 year old which is a good age for AA.  He had the lat injury early and did not pitch in a minor league game until May 8th.   He had  two starts  at Frederick and two more at Bowie in May while he came back from his injury.    However In June and July he regain his form.  He had 11 starts, 63.1 IP,   2.27 ERA  61 K, .224 avg,   1.09 WHIP.   He picked right up from where he was in 2018 at Bowie and dominated for two months.   So much so the Elias promoted him to AAA. You said he saw him pitch from 92-95 with a plus CB in August.

After being promoted to Norfolk he had 4 starts and didn't do well but that was 4  starts.  He had to adjust the major league superball which may take some time. Neither Baumann or Lowther who you have passing Kremer had to deal with the major league ball last season.

He then went to the AZ fall league where he pitched well and you say he developed a new pitch.  

All in all It doesn't seem like a year were he should have dropped from #4 to #11.   Thus my confusion.    You know tons more about this than me and I accept your evaluation but wow  what a difference between where you were with him last year and where you are now.

 

I was a little higher on Kremer than Tony this year, after being a little lower on Kremer than Tony last year. The Another Take part about developing a new pitch is me. 

I'll let Tony make his case for the drop, but I can tell you it wasn't because of the Norfolk stats. Actually in my opinion, he did well statistically in Norfolk.

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6 hours ago, wildcard said:

Tony, you are the man when it comes to evaluating players and I accept what you say because you have actually seen Kremer pitch as opposed to me sitting here in front of a computer.  But I must say I am a bit confused by  going this negative of Kremer.

 In 2018 he had 8 starts at Bowie after being acquired.   He went 4-2, 2.58 ERA,  45.1 IP,  53 K, 228 average,  1.12 WHIP.   You were so excited about him you made him the O's #4 prospect.

He pitched 2019 at 23 year old which is a good age for AA.  He had the lat injury early and did not pitch in a minor league game until May 8th.   He had  two starts  at Frederick and two more at Bowie in May while he came back from his injury.    However In June, July and August at Bowie he regained his form.  He had 13 starts, 75 IP,   2.28 ERA  79 K, .222 avg,   1.12 WHIP.   He picked right up from where he was in 2018 at Bowie and dominated for two months.   So much so that Elias promoted him to AAA. You said you saw him pitch from 92-95 with a plus CB in August.

After being promoted to Norfolk he had 4 starts and didn't do well but that was 4  starts.  He had to adjust the major league superball which may take some time. Neither Baumann or Lowther who you have passing Kremer had to deal with the major league ball last season.

He then went to the AZ fall league where he pitched well and you say he developed a new pitch.  

All in all It doesn't seem like a year were he should have dropped from #4 to #11.   Thus my confusion.    You know tons more about this than me and I accept your evaluation but wow  what a difference between where you were with him last year and where you are now.

 

He was injured. He lost a few ticks. And some command. He had a down year for a pitching prospect. AA was not a tough league to pitch in this season. 

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56 minutes ago, weams said:

He was injured. He lost a few ticks. And some command. He had a down year for a pitching prospect. AA was not a tough league to pitch in this season. 

Yeah, he has some rebuilding to do.    I’m keeping an open mind on him for 2020 though.   

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7 hours ago, wildcard said:

Tony, you are the man when it comes to evaluating players and I accept what you say because you have actually seen Kremer pitch as opposed to me sitting here in front of a computer.  But I must say I am a bit confused by  going this negative on Kremer.

 In 2018 he had 8 starts at Bowie after being acquired.   He went 4-2, 2.58 ERA,  45.1 IP,  53 K, 228 average,  1.12 WHIP.   You were so excited about him you made him the O's #4 prospect.

He pitched 2019 at 23 year old which is a good age for AA.  He had the lat injury early and did not pitch in a minor league game until May 8th.   He had  two starts  at Frederick and two more at Bowie in May while he came back from his injury.    However In June, July and August at Bowie he regained his form.  He had 13 starts, 75 IP,   2.28 ERA  79 K, .222 avg,   1.12 WHIP.   He picked right up from where he was in 2018 at Bowie and dominated for two months.   So much so that Elias promoted him to AAA. You said you saw him pitch from 92-95 with a plus CB in August.

After being promoted to Norfolk he had 4 starts and didn't do well but that was 4  starts.  He had to adjust the major league superball which may take some time. Neither Baumann or Lowther who you have passing Kremer had to deal with the major league ball last season.

He then went to the AZ fall league where he pitched well and you say he developed a new pitch.  

All in all It doesn't seem like a year were he should have dropped from #4 to #11.   Thus my confusion.    You know tons more about this than me and I accept your evaluation but wow  what a difference between where you were with him last year and where you are now.

 

The reason he's still as high as he is was because of the numbers he still put up. I saw him multiple times and honestly the more I watched him the less I liked the stuff. I also talked with scouts and other baseball people and they were down as well, conforming my concerns. the curveball can flash plus at times, but the velocity was too slow and it got real soft at times. I watched his AAA starts and although hes till got some swings and misses on the curveball, I saw more taken for balls and I saw his fastball get barrelled up. Those are not good signs. I saw a few video's of Kremer's "new slider" and was less impressed.

I still think he has some tools to work with so he can still improve, but that fastball that got so much swing and miss in the zone last year wasn't this year, and I'm not sure why.

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17 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The reason he's still as high as he is was because of the numbers he still put up. I saw him multiple times and honestly the more I watched him the less I liked the stuff. I also talked with scouts and other baseball people and they were down as well, conforming my concerns. the curveball can flash plus at times, but the velocity was too slow and it got real soft at times. I watched his AAA starts and although hes till got some swings and misses on the curveball, I saw more taken for balls and I saw his fastball get barrelled up. Those are not good signs. I saw a few video's of Kremer's "new slider" and was less impressed.

I still think he has some tools to work with so he can still improve, but that fastball that got so much swing and miss in the zone last year wasn't this year, and I'm not sure why.

Thanks Tony.   That explains a lot.   I notice that you have his fastball and curve current value as average and see no improvement in future value.     Why do you think he can't improve those pitches?

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3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Thanks Tony.   That explains a lot.   I notice that you have his fastball and curve current value as average and see no improvement in future value.     Why do you think he can't improve those pitches?

I think if you look at the substance, Tony's take here is very defensible. It's not like he wrote the kid off. He said the ceiling can be a mid-back end starter. That's a good ceiling, but it's apparent the velocity needs to tick back up and the secondaries need to improve. To project all of that to happen would be wish casting more than forecasting. I don't think it's unreasonable to think he can get the velocity back, but command and secondaries are tough roads to hoe.

Thinking about it another way, if you "wish cast" every player above Kremer on this list, he probably jumps one guy (Lowther). The rest, if they hit their ceiling, would likely be better than Kremer with the possible exception of Harvey, because you might take a #3/4 starter over a lock down bullpen guy. Even that's debatable. Looking below Kremer, I'm guessing a wish cast of Hall and Hernaiz and probably another guy or two would also jump Kremer, understanding they're really far away.

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24 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I think if you look at the substance, Tony's take here is very defensible. It's not like he wrote the kid off. He said the ceiling can be a mid-back end starter. That's a good ceiling, but it's apparent the velocity needs to tick back up and the secondaries need to improve. To project all of that to happen would be wish casting more than forecasting. I don't think it's unreasonable to think he can get the velocity back, but command and secondaries are tough roads to hoe.

Thinking about it another way, if you "wish cast" every player above Kremer on this list, he probably jumps one guy (Lowther). The rest, if they hit their ceiling, would likely be better than Kremer with the possible exception of Harvey, because you might take a #3/4 starter over a lock down bullpen guy. Even that's debatable. Looking below Kremer, I'm guessing a wish cast of Hall and Hernaiz and probably another guy or two would also jump Kremer, understanding they're really far away.

I think Tony explained his thinking very well.  I was coming at it from the idea that Tony had him at #4 in 2018 and after he recovered from his injury he put up numbers equally as good in AA in 2019.   So I didn't understand the drop.  

However Tony saw him more in 2019 and got the take to other scouts that didn't see that #4 rating as his likely future.   More information  allows a better judgement.

I can understand Baumann velocity taking him passed Kremer.  But IMO there seem to be a question on both players if their third pitches will develop to the level to make them starters.    The jury is still out on that and hopefully both guys have the ability to improve in the future.

To me saying that Lowther has passed Kremer is a guessing game.   Kremer has better velocity.  Lowther has better control of his 3rd and 4th pitches.   I also think both pitchers have a good chance of improving their pitches.     

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3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I can understand Baumann velocity taking him passed Kremer.  But IMO there seem to be a question on both players if their third pitches will develop to the level to make them starters.    The jury is still out on that and hopefully both guys have the ability to improve in the future.

To me saying that Lowther has passed Kremer is a guessing game.   Kremer has better velocity.  Lowther has better control of his 3rd and 4th pitches.   I also think both pitchers have a good chance of improving their pitches.     

On Baumann...yeah, but the velocity is there and his 2nd pitch is on point too. I don't think that's necessarily close.

On Lowther, I kind of agree. I totally understand having him higher because results matter, but it's not like the physical talent blows away Kremer.

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14 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

On Baumann...yeah, but the velocity is there and his 2nd pitch is on point too. I don't think that's necessarily close.

On Lowther, I kind of agree. I totally understand having him higher because results matter, but it's not like the physical talent blows away Kremer.

I don't think there is that much difference between Baumann and Kremer.  Neither has a MLB ready third pitch which they both need to be successful MLB starters.  Tony has called Kremer's curve a real weapon.  Its just not as consistent as it needs to be right now.  Its can be a plus pitch if he finds consistency with it.

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10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't think there is that much difference between Baumann and Kremer.  Neither has a MLB ready third pitch which they both need to be successful MLB starters.  Tony has called Kremer's curve a real weapon.  Its just not as consistent as it needs to be right now.  Its can be a plus pitch if he finds consistency with it.

Well the rankings are meaningless anyway.  The Bowie guys should all be up in Norfolk at some point next season.  We shall see how they do with the major league ball in their hands.  I think we should see separation between Baumann, Kremer, Sedlock, Wells, Zimmerman and Lowther when they get to that level. 

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27 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't think there is that much difference between Baumann and Kremer.  Neither has a MLB ready third pitch which they both need to be successful MLB starters.  Tony has called Kremer's curve a real weapon.  Its just not as consistent as it needs to be right now.  Its can be a plus pitch if he finds consistency with it.

According to the write-ups, Baumann has a 60 FB and a 60 Slider. Kremer has a 50/50 FB/Curveball. That's kind of different. I agree about the third pitch, but Baumann was throwing 98 in the 9th inning of a complete game. I get that it was AA and a pitcher's environment. Still, that physicality is on a different level than Kremer. Even Baumann's command was at least on par with Kremer's this year.

I get that Kremer didn't have a great year, but if everything clicks for Baumann, he's a much better pitcher than if everything clicks for Kremer. 

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