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Bundy to San Diego Would Be Smart

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19 hours ago, Frobby said:

What good is it to pitch in a pitcher’s park and allow one fewer run per game, when the opposing pitcher is also pitching in that same park?

Because Bundy's problems are directly related to homers, which Petco suppresses.  If his main problem was walks, Petco wouldn't help that.  But his main problem is homers, which Petco does help.  Petco plays to Bundy's strengths and masks his weaknesses.  Bundy's average exit velocity isn't particularly bad and he's actually very good at suppressing hard hit balls.  It's just that his average launch angle is high.  A spacious outfield is likely to give Bundy much greater marginal benefit than it would other pitchers.  

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23 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

With 4 seasons and 229 games under his belt at SS.

He is a HOF 3rd, and thats where he belongs.

Even in a down year, if he played SS here, he would have been better than what we ran out there.

 

We got the 1st pick when Manny started and 2nd pick with Richie Martin.... Hmmmm ;) 

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13 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Also, literally the only thing between Bundy and being a #2/3 pitcher is HR rate. He’s a league wide outlier in that respect. So he’s kind of a guy a team acquiring him can dream of upside. 

I’d love to see him solve that problem.    He reduced his HR rate a good bit last year, especially in the second half of the season.   Hoping that continues.   He’s still a favorite of mine, making do with what he has left.  

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On 11/12/2019 at 1:59 PM, Frobby said:

What good is it to pitch in a pitcher’s park and allow one fewer run per game, when the opposing pitcher is also pitching in that same park?

Because he would be pitching 1/2 of his games there and opposing pitchers would not be an exact wash as to Bundy.  Sometime ago I posted he might show better in a NL park and that is what I still think.  He has had his tour of duty with the TJ team.and do not know for sure, but a hunch says he is ready to have a better second half career than first half in the right park with the right defensive team.  .  Again, cannot prove it, just an educated guess.  

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’d love to see him solve that problem.    He reduced his HR rate a good bit last year, especially in the second half of the season.   Hoping that continues.   He’s still a favorite of mine, making do with what he has left.  

If you look at all the offspeed pitches, they all come in above MLB average in results in 2019, it’s just the black hole of a fastball. It’s not that the fastball doesn’t have some good qualities, it’s just he doesn’t command it well and it’s to slow to make mistakes with. His fastball usage dropped in 2019 and I expect it to continue to drop in 2020.

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20 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

That’s definitely not true, he was a perfectly good 4th starter on a playoff team in 2019. He projects statistically to be a solid 2 WAR in 2019 and at 27 the aging curve isn’t that harsh yet. He’ll make something like 14M over the two seasons. I think Bundy would likely get something like 3/36 on the open market. There is at least 10M of surplus there, probably a bit more. Especially with teams trying to conserve money, getting a guy who projects as a #4/5 SP for about 5M is a desirable thing. Also, literally the only thing between Bundy and being a #2/3 pitcher is HR rate. He’s a league wide outlier in that respect. So he’s kind of a guy a team acquiring him can dream of upside. 

I stand corrected.  Thanks! 😎

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51 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

I stand corrected.  Thanks! 😎

I think the new run environment the last couple years makes everyone , myself included, inclined to not value starters with ERAs in the mid 4s, even though that’s solid production in considering league wide run environment and the home park environment.

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2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I think the new run environment the last couple years makes everyone , myself included, inclined to not value starters with ERAs in the mid 4s, even though that’s solid production in considering league wide run environment and the home park environment.

And pitching in the AL East against the likes of the Yankees and Red Sox. Bundy's ERA might go down a run pitching in San Diego and playing in the NL.

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7 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

And pitching in the AL East against the likes of the Yankees and Red Sox. Bundy's ERA might go down a run pitching in San Diego and playing in the NL.

Bundy’s 4.79 ERA, adjusted for park effects and league, amounts to a 99 ERA+.    That translates to a 4.27 ERA for a pitcher for San Diego.    
 

I think many people think that the AL is still the better league, and that the NL is dramatically more pitcher friendly.   Neither is true.   The NL handily won interleague play each of the last two years.    The average runs scored was higher in the AL by only .10 runs per game in 2019 (4.88 to 4.78), .15 in 2018 (4.53 to 4.38).   That’s minimal when you consider that the pitchers bat in the NL.   I’d venture to say that the hitters are actually a little better in the NL now, but for the drag caused by the pitchers batting.    
 

What remains true is that Petco is much more pitcher friendly than OPACY, and that NL West parks in general are more pitcher friendly than AL East parks, with Coors Field being the obvious exception.

On the whole, I see no reason to think Bundy would lower his ERA by more than the 0.52 indicated by ERA+ if he was traded to the Padres.    And if he did, so what?   A 99 ERA+ is what it is.    

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3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Bundy’s 4.79 ERA, adjusted for park effects and league, amounts to a 99 ERA+.    That translates to a 4.27 ERA for a pitcher for San Diego.    
 

I think many people think that the AL is still the better league, and that the NL is dramatically more pitcher friendly.   Neither is true.   The NL handily won interleague play each of the last two years.    The average runs scored was higher in the AL by only .10 runs per game in 2019 (4.88 to 4.78), .15 in 2018 (4.53 to 4.38).   That’s minimal when you consider that the pitchers bat in the NL.   I’d venture to say that the hitters are actually a little better in the NL now, but for the drag caused by the pitchers batting.    
 

What remains true is that Petco is much more pitcher friendly than OPACY, and that NL West parks in general are more pitcher friendly than AL East parks, with Coors Field being the obvious exception.

On the whole, I see no reason to think Bundy would lower his ERA by more than the 0.52 indicated by ERA+ if he was traded to the Padres.    And if he did, so what?   A 99 ERA+ is what it is.    

They did specifically mention the Yankees and Red Sox who did finish first and fourth in runs scored in 2019(both ahead of all NL West teams).

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9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They did specifically mention the Yankees and Red Sox who did finish first and fourth in runs scored in 2019(both ahead of all NL West teams).

Fine, but we don’t play them 162 times a year.    The four AL East teams other than Baltimore averaged 5.15 runs per game; the four NL West teams other than San Diego averaged 4.96 runs per game.    That stuff, plus the 86 games the Orioles and Padres each played against non-divisional opponents, is already baked in to the difference in how ERA+ translates to actual ERA cited in the first paragraph of my post.   

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3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Bundy’s 4.79 ERA, adjusted for park effects and league, amounts to a 99 ERA+.    That translates to a 4.27 ERA for a pitcher for San Diego.    
 

I think many people think that the AL is still the better league, and that the NL is dramatically more pitcher friendly.   Neither is true.   The NL handily won interleague play each of the last two years.    The average runs scored was higher in the AL by only .10 runs per game in 2019 (4.88 to 4.78), .15 in 2018 (4.53 to 4.38).   That’s minimal when you consider that the pitchers bat in the NL.   I’d venture to say that the hitters are actually a little better in the NL now, but for the drag caused by the pitchers batting.    
 

What remains true is that Petco is much more pitcher friendly than OPACY, and that NL West parks in general are more pitcher friendly than AL East parks, with Coors Field being the obvious exception.

On the whole, I see no reason to think Bundy would lower his ERA by more than the 0.52 indicated by ERA+ if he was traded to the Padres.    And if he did, so what?   A 99 ERA+ is what it is.    

I'm not sure that all pitchers are affected in the same way by the differences in ballparks.  I think the point that the home run particularly hurt Bundy makes sense.  He is a pitcher that may well benefit more from the difference between Petco and OPACY than league average.  At least the argument seems logical to me.

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On 11/12/2019 at 2:16 PM, wildbillhiccup said:

Would the Padres view Bundy as an upgrade over any of their top four starters? I'm not sure I would. Feels more like shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic. 

 

This thread rages on, but no one has answered my question. If the Padres trade (or sign) a starting pitching it's going to be a top tier guy to help take to pressure off Paddack. 

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