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Roll Tide

Rule 5 thoughts

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 On the one hand, number three prospect is enticing, but on the other hand, teams make bad draft picks every year, and the Brewers have smart guys too, they’re not giving up on him without good reason. On the other hand, I think the goal in this rule five is to get some competent infielders. On the other hand, I don’t know, but our last guy named Zach was pretty successful, so there’s that.

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I'll refrain from my yearly rant on how I hate the Rule 5.  It's been well documented.

Santander was pretty good last year, I'd put him in the nice surprise column.  And Richie Martin was solid with the glove, I thought (take your defensive metrics and shove it).  And he had a decent 2nd half with the bat, too.  

That said, I'd like to stay away from Rule 5 arms.  They almost always suck.

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9 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'll refrain from my yearly rant on how I hate the Rule 5.  It's been well documented.

Santander was pretty good last year, I'd put him in the nice surprise column.  And Richie Martin was solid with the glove, I thought (take your defensive metrics and shove it).  And he had a decent 2nd half with the bat, too.  

That said, I'd like to stay away from Rule 5 arms.  They almost always suck.

I do not know if Joe Biagini was available when we picked in the ‘15 draft,  But he’s been really successful. Matt Bowman was a good pick by the Cardinals(once again showing that intelligent drafting is more important than having a high pick) Even though he only lasted about two years with the Cardinals before being dumped, he did provide good service.

the Royals Chose two pitchers  in one draft a couple years ago, I think one of them was a bust but the other one is still around. The Padres ended up with Louis Perdomo, Who was awful at first but then improved, I think he’s also gone now, but he did provide two or three solid years.

In general, I agree that it’s risky to take pitching, but there are some success stories. As I said above, I think we’re more interested in position players at the moment, but I think Mike sees things that we don’t, and I don’t think we’re going to be taking any Jason Garcia-type pitchers in this draft.

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Where is the list of top-30 guys who are draft eligible?

Jason Garcia and Aneury(sp?) Tavares weren’t on any such lists, and neither were Rickard or Santander, right? ( two winners, two losers)

Has anyone looked for neglected possibilities?

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2 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

There's some good information on Zach Brown and others here:

 

Thanks! I just ten seconds ago posted a question asking for exactly this list!

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18 minutes ago, Philip said:

I do not know if Joe Biagini was available when we picked in the ‘15 draft,  But he’s been really successful. Matt Bowman was a good pick by the Cardinals(once again showing that intelligent drafting is more important than having a high pick) Even though he only lasted about two years with the Cardinals before being dumped, he did provide good service.

the Royals Chose two pitchers  in one draft a couple years ago, I think one of them was a bust but the other one is still around. The Padres ended up with Louis Perdomo, Who was awful at first but then improved, I think he’s also gone now, but he did provide two or three solid years.

In general, I agree that it’s risky to take pitching, but there are some success stories. As I said above, I think we’re more interested in position players at the moment, but I think Mike sees things that we don’t, and I don’t think we’re going to be taking any Jason Garcia-type pitchers in this draft.

There's no risk when they suck.

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2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I just saw the Brewers #3 rated prospect Zach Brown  is left unprotected. 
 

He had a 5.79 in the AAA PCL in 23 starts.

Is he a guy that the Orioles should select if Detroit passes?

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=brown-002zac

 

So team rankings can be deceptive.

According to Fangraphs midseason update these were the top prospects left unprotected. (all 45s)

Shervyon Newton

Moises Gomez

Resly Linares

Zack Brown

Esteury Ruiz

Luis Oviedo

I imagine Brown will be a 40 on the offseason update though after watching him and often the top prospects left unprotected aren’t the best options because those players are looked at very carefully by their teams and if they’re left unprotected it usually means they don’t live up to the billing or are too far away to stick. 

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1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

those players are looked at very carefully by their teams 

 I don’t know if Santander was looked at very carefully and unprotected regardless, or if he was a talented player the Indians allowed to let go unintentionally, but it would be really interesting to look at the other guys that are eligible that are not on the top 30 list.

Jon Shepard used to speak of finding a rule five guy who had “one loud tool”And maybe there’s some neglected guys down on a farm somewhere who could be good for us?

It would be a tremendous amount of work to go through all 29 teams looking for someone like that, so I’m not going to make that request of you, But I would be very interested in knowing what parameters you would set if you were going to make a search like that? If you can tell me what to look for, I’ll see if I can do the footwork myself.

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Santander was coming off shoulder surgery when the Orioles drafted him in the Rule 5 draft.  Hence the Indians did not think they needed to protect a player from A Ball that was not 100%.

 

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