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Waiving/non-tendering Villar: pro or con?

Do you approve Elias’ move of waiving Villar?  

120 members have voted

  1. 1. Do you agree with putting Villar on waivers?

    • I’m in favor
    • I’m against
    • Don’t know, but I’ll defer to Elias’ judgment

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  • Poll closed on 11/29/2019 at 04:40

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1 hour ago, weams said:

I disagree. He would not have significant value even if he produced at the level of 2019. He might bring back a prospect. That prospect might pan out. A lot of variables. No sure thing either way. You could potential sign a three million dollar free agent that might bring back more of a return. 

Or spend a bit more and try to grab and flip a pitcher with chronic blister issues, wrongly trending peripherals, or is just old. The potential return on that sort of arbitrage seems bigger. Granted, we had Villar in the hand.

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9 hours ago, WillyM said:

When the Orioles traded Cashner, he was 9-3 for a team that had lost more than twice as many games as it had won.  I knew that the Orioles were expected to start trading productive veterans for prospects, but I was sort of hoping that a guy as productive as Cashner could be traded for the kind of players who might be major league ready within a year or two - or three at the most.  It was disappointing to see Cashner traded for guys who are probably at least four to six years from being able to contribute at the major league level.

 

I don't think win-loss record is high on the list that organizations look at in measuring pitchers.

The Orioles could not give Cashner away before the 2019 season. With a lot of smoke and mirrors,  Cashner  pitched decently enough that the Orioles got a couple of prospects for him.  It helped that the Orioles were willing to pay part of Cashner's remaining salary.  That Prado and Romero were very young international players were likely not a negative to the Orioles who are year away from being competitive and looking to improve their international talent .

Cashner was a disaster for the Red Sox and I would be shocked if he even get a major league contract for 2020.  It is only in bad messageboard land that there is this fantasy that the Orioles should have gotten more for Cashner.

 

 

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7 hours ago, Chavez Ravine said:

Or spend a bit more and try to grab and flip a pitcher with chronic blister issues, wrongly trending peripherals, or is just old. The potential return on that sort of arbitrage seems bigger. Granted, we had Villar in the hand.

I  think the likelihood that Villar will far outperform any free agent that you could get for $3 million is nearly 100%. Hitting on a free agent that did would be like winning the Powerball

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1 minute ago, mdbdotcom said:

Maybe they'll use some of the savings as a bonus to induce Mountcastle to sign a guaranteed deal that would extend beyond his arb years and allow them to bring him up on opening day (since there would no longer be any "clock" issues). 

Not impossible ,,,,, But until you see this type of behavior from Elias I wouldn't count on or expect it

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2 hours ago, POR said:

I don't think win-loss record is high on the list that organizations look at in measuring pitchers.

The Orioles could not give Cashner away before the 2019 season. With a lot of smoke and mirrors,  Cashner  pitched decently enough that the Orioles got a couple of prospects for him.  It helped that the Orioles were willing to pay part of Cashner's remaining salary.  That Prado and Romero were very young international players were likely not a negative to the Orioles who are year away from being competitive and looking to improve their international talent .

Cashner was a disaster for the Red Sox and I would be shocked if he even get a major league contract for 2020.  It is only in bad messageboard land that there is this fantasy that the Orioles should have gotten more for Cashner.

 

 

Yes.

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Villar had a 3.9 WAR season in 2016 and followed it with 0.1 in 2017 and 1.4 in 2018.  No one can say with certainty which Villar will appear in 2020.  That being said, it's pitiful that the decision is made on the basis of about $5M.   Also, this talk of the money being banked for a later date, is speculation.  The Orioles have repeatedly talked about tying payroll to attendance, and it's reasonable to assume that will be down again in 2020.

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44 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

Villar had a 3.9 WAR season in 2016 and followed it with 0.1 in 2017 and 1.4 in 2018.  No one can say with certainty which Villar will appear in 2020.  That being said, it's pitiful that the decision is made on the basis of about $5M.   Also, this talk of the money being banked for a later date, is speculation.  The Orioles have repeatedly talked about tying payroll to attendance, and it's reasonable to assume that will be down again in 2020.

Fact 

Villar's WAR

2016 3.9 Brewers

2017. 0.1 Brewers

2018 1.4 Brewers

            1.3 Orioles.         = 2.7

2019  4.0 Orioles

I think 2017 was clearly the anomaly. 

I think it's safe to expect him to be somewhere in the ballpark of his 3 year average of 3.5.

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3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Fact 

Villar's WAR

2016 3.9 Brewers

2017. 0.1 Brewers

2018 1.4 Brewers

            1.3 Orioles.         = 2.7

2019  4.0 Orioles

I think 2017 was clearly the anomaly. 

I think it's safe to expect him to be somewhere in the ballpark of his 3 year average of 3.5.

His four-year average is 2.675. That seems safer. Can't just throw out the anomalies. 

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