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Calling Elias incompetent is unfair

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2 minutes ago, Scalious said:

This has less to do with talent valuation and more the state of the FA Market. Less teams spending + same FAs= Devaluation of FAs. 

Elias is absolutely not incompetent in this from an X's and O's standpoint. Rental hitters have poor market value right now.. What you can get for Villar, is not worth 10M. You are better off throwing a ton of cheap bones at struggling pitchers. Hoping a few float and become tradeable assets at the deadline.

He's not worth 3.5 WAR at $10 million? I disagree

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1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

I’m not sure, I just know it’s an extremely common provision.

That's the way it was laid out by a group of upper level scouts at a showcase years ago. 

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6 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

That's the way it was laid out by a group of upper level scouts at a showcase years ago. 

Makes sense, I just don’t know enough to confirm.

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1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

He's not worth 3.5 WAR at $10 million? I disagree

To the Orioles? No. They are not trying to win. They want trade assets and rental hitters have poor ROI for that.

For the league? He has yet to sign a deal with another team to see if he gets a 2 year deal for more total/less AAS. So no comment on that. However, the market is absolutely repressed right now

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1 minute ago, Scalious said:

To the Orioles? No. They are not trying to win. They want trade assets and rental hitters have poor ROI for that.

For the league? He has yet to sign a deal with another team to see if he gets a 2 year deal for more total/less AAS. So no comment on that. However, the market is absolutely repressed right now

He can't sign yet until after 1 Monday if he is not claimed

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1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

He can't sign yet until after 1 Monday if he is not claimed

Exactly.   So none of us yet know if the 10 million a year being thrown around is close to what the market will bear.  Personally I think he signs somewhere for around 7 million a year,  probably a 2-3 year deal at 14-21 million.   I don't think he was worth 10 million a year,  and certainly not worth that to the Orioles.  I'll miss watching him play as he was entertaining.   But our focus needs to be down the road and not this year.   I certainly don't know if the money saved will be invested into the franchise... none of us do.  But we all admit the changes we are making internationally,  analytically and organizationally aren't free.  Maybe freeing up this cash expedites some of the growth.   Maybe it doesn't.   I'll never be able to prove it does.... nor can the Elias detractors prove it isn't.   But at this point I'm trusting in the process and Villar is a minor issue to me.

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6 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

If I offended you in my opening response to you, I am truly sorry! I hope you hang around and post regularly. 

I attempted to explain why it wasn't in a follow up response. Merely responding to the points in your first post.

The result of which was a negative rep spamming of around 20 hits by 3 guys (9 by 1, and 6 by #2 ....who were born between 1967 & 1969, rep regularly but Rarely or never post.

 

 

No worries!  Not offended.  I overstepped.  I think we’re all frustrated with things but want the same positive result.  I’m with you on wanting an ownership change (going on about 18 years or so).  I can see it happening.  MLB is disenfranchised with PGA and I can’t see them allowing an easy transition to his sons - especially if they’re not even attempting to compete.  Rebuilding the organization could make them more intriguing to a buyer.  I really hope for this to be the case.  
 

sorry about the Alabama loss yesterday - tough with Tua going down.  

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28 minutes ago, WarehouseChatter said:

 

sorry about the Alabama loss yesterday - tough with Tua going down.  

WAR EAGLE!!!!!!!!!!!

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1 hour ago, WarehouseChatter said:

No worries!  Not offended.  I overstepped.  I think we’re all frustrated with things but want the same positive result.  I’m with you on wanting an ownership change (going on about 18 years or so).  I can see it happening.  MLB is disenfranchised with PGA and I can’t see them allowing an easy transition to his sons - especially if they’re not even attempting to compete.  Rebuilding the organization could make them more intriguing to a buyer.  I really hope for this to be the case.  
 

sorry about the Alabama loss yesterday - tough with Tua going down.  

Thanks

No biggie on the loss. They committed a stupid penalty at the wrong time. But it was a good close game. They can easily be back next year!

Also, I think Tua id done

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8 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

He played card 1 just after the deadline "Felt no pressure to deal as he had no pending free agents"

and Card 2  (Interview with the Baltimore Sun) "Not payout Villar 10 million to pay on a team he wants /hopes/ or will lose 100 games.

Do you think Card 2 helped Villar's trade value? 

I think that pretty much sums up why no one wanted to give up anything for him in a trade. If they know Elias isn't going to pay him in arbitration and is just going to waive him, what reason is there to give up prospects in a trade when you can compete for his services in the offseason when he becomes a free agent? That makes more sense than claiming that every GM in the league thinks Villar is a bad player.

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2 minutes ago, Sessh said:

I think that pretty much sums up why no one wanted to give up anything for him in a trade. If they know Elias isn't going to pay him in arbitration and is just going to waive him, what reason is there to give up prospects in a trade when you can compete for his services in the offseason when he becomes a free agent? That makes more sense than claiming that every GM in the league thinks Villar is a bad player.

Thats what I thought and it seems very logical. However, agreeing with me could be hazardous to your reputation here

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7 minutes ago, Sessh said:

I think that pretty much sums up why no one wanted to give up anything for him in a trade. If they know Elias isn't going to pay him in arbitration and is just going to waive him, what reason is there to give up prospects in a trade when you can compete for his services in the offseason when he becomes a free agent? That makes more sense than claiming that every GM in the league thinks Villar is a bad player.

Because you wouldn't have to compete for his services.  This way you could pay a nominal fee in prospects to insure he's playing for you.  Like Oakland did with Jim Johnson.

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7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Because you wouldn't have to compete for his services.  This way you could pay a nominal fee in prospects to insure he's playing for you.  Like Oakland did with Jim Johnson.

Exactly. A team can give up 2 DSL players to get him instead of competing in the free agent market where you might have to give him 2/$14 or 2/$15M to get him.

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11 hours ago, atomic said:

The funniest thing I find about is the following:

I said a certain Orioles drafted player should go to college over signing either the Orioles due to the importance of a college degree in life.

People on here blasted me for such comments.  
 

Elias then fires a bunch of long term scouts.  Even ones that were good scouts.

Orioles post position available for scouts on team website with only qualification required is a college degree.

Not one person who insulted me about me stating importance of college degree has said one word criticizing Elias for the move.

Makes you wonder how people’s minds work.  

Yes.   I’m wondering how yours works.     Because scouts make a fraction of what these top draft picks get paid in signing bonus.   And because most of us aren’t studying the Orioles’ scout want ads.    That’s a really bizarre connection to make, IMO.

Remind me, was it Gunnar Henderson who was being discussed?   He got a $2.3 mm signing bonus.    It probably takes the average scout 30 years to make that much.    With or without a college degree.    In fact, the average male with a bachelor’s degree makes about $2.43 mm in his lifetime.   https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/research-summaries/education-earnings-alt.html

PS — I wouldn’t presume to tell any of these kids whether to go pro out of high school or go to college.    It’s an individual decision and lots of factors go into it.

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5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes.   I’m wondering how yours works.     Because scouts make a fraction of what these top draft picks get paid in signing bonus.   And because most of us aren’t studying the Orioles’ scout want ads.    That’s a really bizarre connection to make, IMO.

Remind me, was it Gunnar Henderson who was being discussed?   He got a $2.3 mm signing bonus.    It probably takes the average scout 30 years to make that much.    With or without a college degree.    In fact, the average male with a bachelor’s degree makes about $2.43 mm in his lifetime.   https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/research-summaries/education-earnings-alt.html

PS — I wouldn’t presume to tell any of these kids whether to go pro out of high school or go to college.    It’s an individual decision and lots of factors go into it.

I think you are totally missing the point.

 

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