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Calling Elias incompetent is unfair

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3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Thats what I thought and it seems very logical. However, agreeing with me could be hazardous to your reputation here

I think I'm pretty hazardous to my own reputation though I'm not sure I have much of one anyway.

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Because you wouldn't have to compete for his services.  This way you could pay a nominal fee in prospects to insure he's playing for you.  Like Oakland did with Jim Johnson.

 

3 hours ago, 7Mo said:

Exactly. A team can give up 2 DSL players to get him instead of competing in the free agent market where you might have to give him 2/$14 or 2/$15M to get him.

Sure, if Elias' asking price was 2 DSL players. Maybe he wanted more. Perhaps 2/14 or 2/15 is seen as preferable to 1/10 + prospects. Either way, it probably wasn't a good plan to tip his hand to the extent that he did. I do see your points, though.

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In my unprofessional opinion, it does seem that Elias got played a bit by some of the other GMs with this Villar thing.  Releasing him is exactly what the  contending teams want.  Now, it's shamefully true that half the teams in baseball aren't trying to win and probably don't want Villar at any price.  And it's also true that guys like Villar are criminally undervalued in today's analytics-driven MLB climate. 

But he's not a bum by any stretch and is still at least league-average.  And there should be at least 10-12 teams who are trying to contend (SOMEONE has to fill those 10 playoff spots after all), and they have to be loving the fact that Villar is hitting the open market and won't have to give up any prospects to get him.  I wish Elias had called the other GMs' bluffs.  Maybe it would have blown up in his face, with Villar getting injured in Spring Training before we can flip him.  But at least we would have gone down with a fight.  We just folded our cards here, we blinked first, we let other GMs stare us down and folded our hand when we had a straight.  I wish we'd shown a little faith in Villar and gone down swinging.  Odds are, someone's starting middle infielder gets hurt, and they have to come crawling to our door offering a Top 200 guy.  

I'm willing to chalk this up to a young GM getting scared into folding prematurely at the poker table by the other cigar-chomping sharks.  Hopefully Elias will take it as a learning experience when the Cardinals sign Villar for a 3 year, $25 million deal, and doesn't let himself get bullied again.  

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14 hours ago, Frobby said:

Apparently.   

My point was that everyone was saying college wasn't that important and went on to attack for me suggesting the importance of college.  Then Elias basically doesn't even want anyone without a college degree for a low level scout position and that is the only actual required qualification and no one is blasting Elias for making that the only requirement.  

I don't see why you are even mentioning the salary of a scout.   Elias started out as a scout and now he is a GM.   I am not suggesting that anyone should go to college to become a  scout for the Orioles.  Really I am not sure why that would require a college degree as a lot of former baseball players don't have degrees.  

Also curious to what recommendations did you make to your own kids about attending college?  I think you said they went to Walt Whitman High School.  I used to have a friend who went to that high school.  I think almost everyone who attends that high school ends up going to college.  

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3 minutes ago, atomic said:

My point was that everyone was saying college wasn't that important and went on to attack for me suggesting the importance of college.  Then Elias basically doesn't even want anyone without a college degree for a low level scout position and that is the only actual required qualification and no one is blasting Elias for making that the only requirement.  

I don't see why you are even mentioning the salary of a scout.   Elias started out as a scout and now he is a GM.   I am not suggesting that anyone should go to college to become a  scout for the Orioles.  Really I am not sure why that would require a college degree as a lot of former baseball players don't have degrees.  

Also curious to what recommendations did you make to your own kids about attending college?  I think you said they went to Walt Whitman High School.  I used to have a friend who went to that high school.  I think almost everyone who attends that high school ends up going to college.  

If your point was that for most high school students, going to college is a good choice, I’m certainly not going to take issue with that.     A lot of jobs these days require applicants to have a college degree even if the average HS grad could handle the requisite job skills.    And yes, all three of my kids went to college, and my bank account shows it!     

But I don’t remember anyone here generally denigrating the importance of getting a college degree.    The discussion was about kids being drafted and being offered a lot of money to go pro.    My kids certainly weren’t in that situation.    Very few are.    
 

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22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If your point was that for most high school students, going to college is a good choice, I’m certainly not going to take issue with that.     A lot of jobs these days require applicants to have a college degree even if the average HS grad could handle the requisite job skills.    And yes, all three of my kids went to college, and my bank account shows it!     

But I don’t remember anyone here generally denigrating the importance of getting a college degree.    The discussion was about kids being drafted and being offered a lot of money to go pro.    My kids certainly weren’t in that situation.    Very few are.    
 

Essentially none are. There are so few of these kids. 

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4 hours ago, FanSince88 said:

In my unprofessional opinion, it does seem that Elias got played a bit by some of the other GMs with this Villar thing.

I'm willing to chalk this up to a young GM getting scared into folding prematurely at the poker table by the other cigar-chomping sharks.  Hopefully Elias will take it as a learning experience when the Cardinals sign Villar for a 3 year, $25 million deal, and doesn't let himself get bullied again.  

Elias has been trying to trade Villar for some time now.  Elias is not getting bullied or played.  

The bottom line, IMO, is that it is not worth having Villar on our team in 2019.  I doubt this is a surprise to many MLB GMs. 

My only issue with this mini sell-off that might also include Bundy, a reliever and possibly Mancini is - where does this end?  When does Elias start trying to win.  I would like to see us start to ramp up the wins based on the talent on the major league team in 2021, but Elias has no compunction with losing, and might be tanking in 2021 as well.

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9 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

My only issue with this mini sell-off that might also include Bundy, a reliever and possibly Mancini is - where does this end?  When does Elias start trying to win.  I would like to see us start to ramp up the wins based on the talent on the major league team in 2021, but Elias has no compunction with losing, and might be tanking in 2021 as well.

I’m sure Elias would rather not be tanking in 2021.    Fans and owners will only be patient for so long.     

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18 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

Elias has been trying to trade Villar for some time now.  Elias is not getting bullied or played.  

The bottom line, IMO, is that it is not worth having Villar on our team in 2019.  I doubt this is a surprise to many MLB GMs. 

My only issue with this mini sell-off that might also include Bundy, a reliever and possibly Mancini is - where does this end?  When does Elias start trying to win.  I would like to see us start to ramp up the wins based on the talent on the major league team in 2021, but Elias has no compunction with losing, and might be tanking in 2021 as well.

I think it ends when the players on the team are young AND good AND controllable. Right now they are either not good enough to justify the salary, or they are good but too expensive to control/too old when we're not ready to compete yet. 

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13 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think it ends when the players on the team are young AND good AND controllable. Right now they are either not good enough to justify the salary, or they are good but too expensive to control/too old when we're not ready to compete yet. 

That definition can be quite subjective.  MacPhail said it would be obvious when the cheap young talent would be ready to win, but I don't think he would have tried to win as early as Duquette did.

I have said that a rebuilding team, particularly a small market one, needs to have eight or nine pre-arb contributors and another few pre-FA contributors from its top 17 players consisting of the 8 starting position players the top five SPs and the top four bullpen arms.  We should have at least a cheap Mountcastle, Santander and Hays as starters and likely AR and Diaz in the field with a cheap Means and in the rotation and Harvey in the bullpen.    IMO, we should be young and cheap in 2021 and starting to ramp up the winning (toward 65-70+ wins) with free agents in areas where we lack productivity with an eye toward competing in 2022 when Hall and GrayRod should be ready to contribute in the majors.   

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3 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

That definition can be quite subjective.  MacPhail said it would be obvious when the cheap young talent would be ready to win, but I don't think he would have tried to win as early as Duquette did.

I have said that a rebuilding team, particularly a small market one, needs to have eight or nine pre-arb contributors and another few pre-FA contributors from its top 17 players consisting of the 8 starting position players the top five SPs and the top four bullpen arms.  We should have at least a cheap Mountcastle, Santander and Hays as starters and likely AR and Diaz in the field with a cheap Means and in the rotation and Harvey in the bullpen.    IMO, we should be young and cheap in 2021 and starting to ramp up the winning (toward 65-70+ wins) with free agents in areas where we lack productivity with an eye toward competing in 2022 when Hall and GrayRod should be ready to contribute in the majors.   

Dan Duquette showed up and promised a winning team. Promised. 

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27 minutes ago, weams said:

Dan Duquette showed up and promised a winning team. Promised. 

Don’t know about promised, but he certainly predicted it, and he was right.     He made a ton of great moves that first year.

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1 hour ago, hoosiers said:

Elias has been trying to trade Villar for some time now.  Elias is not getting bullied or played.  

The bottom line, IMO, is that it is not worth having Villar on our team in 2019.  I doubt this is a surprise to many MLB GMs. 

My only issue with this mini sell-off that might also include Bundy, a reliever and possibly Mancini is - where does this end?  When does Elias start trying to win.  I would like to see us start to ramp up the wins based on the talent on the major league team in 2021, but Elias has no compunction with losing, and might be tanking in 2021 as well.

Yes, he's been trying to trade Villar, I have no doubt.  But the other GMs have been playing rope-a-dope, and just got a TKO.  

What we did with Villar is not a "sell-off."  It's more like deciding not to pay increased property tax and letting the county take the title away from you, instead of putting your house on the market.  

Now is the right time to deal Bundy.  He's probably at peak value and he's due for an injury.  Even if he somehow pitches well (under 4.00 ERA) this season, his value won't rise because his service time will be decreased.  Only way his value rises if he posts a blistering hot first half of 2020 (like top-15 starter level hot), and then maybe he becomes more valuable.  But I don't see that happening. 

Mancini probably won't be dealt before July 31, 2020, and maybe not even then.  We may just hang on to him to put a few butts in seats because the trade interest isn't there from other teams.  Only if contender gets real desperate because of a rash of injuries to their sluggers would we get a nice return for him.  But it's just as likely that a team with that severe of a roster problem just throws in the towel and tanks for the rest of the year.  

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6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Don’t know about promised, but he certainly predicted it, and he was right.     He made a ton of great moves that first year.

He said that the Orioles would win more games than they lost, right away, in 2012, to you and I and 15,000 people thirsting for just that. Not a playoff. Not a World Series. A winning team. 

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1 hour ago, weams said:

Dan Duquette showed up and promised a winning team. Promised. 

He said they were Going to be a .500 team right before start of 2012 season.  

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