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Frobby

What do 2B/SS get paid?

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12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think if Schoop got $7.5 mm last year after a 1.4 rWAR season, Villar couldn’t possibly be worth less than that after a 4.0 rWAR season.   I realize that teams take into account more than one year’s performance, but I still think Villar has to be worth what Schoop was on the open market.   

Which leaves most, I think shrugging at why he's been so hard to trade.

What is your theory on the reason?

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58 minutes ago, Philip said:

 That will be a fascinating thing to learn. I personally do not think he will get a $10 million annual salary which by definition means he’s not worth his arbitration projection, which vindicates Mike’s move, at least partially.

The arbitration projection was just that, a projection.    It wasn’t a fact.   I’ve been adamant in my opinion that Villar was not going to get $10 mm in arbitration, and might not even get $9 mm.    I think the data I collected above supports my opinion.    Now, would he get more in arbitration than his open market value as a free agent?     Possibly.

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The arbitration projection was just that, a projection.    It wasn’t a fact.   I’ve been adamant in my opinion that Villar was not going to get $10 mm in arbitration, and might not even get $9 mm.    I think the data I collected above supports my opinion.    Now, would he get more in arbitration than his open market value as a free agent?     Possibly.

I understand that, but the projections are made for a reason, and the expectation would’ve been around that.

 But at 8 million per WAR, Villar’s supposed value would be 24 M The previous season, and even if Villar is only projected at ~2WAR next season, that would still be 16. Even if you cut those values in half, 4WAR at mill is still 16 for last season and 2WAR is 8 for next season, yet nobody, but nobody, was banging down the door of Mike’s office to acquire him, and the only logical reason for that is 1) Villar ain’t worth his projection, and 2) they think they can get as good or better performance for considerably less.

I remain surprised that they let him go to save an insignificant sum( Difference between what they were willing to pay and what his projected to get) But I understand it.

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2 hours ago, Papeete said:

It's not what do 2Bs make, it's what do players producing on his caliber make.

Which is why I gave information about the production of every player I listed.     But make no mistake, pay varies a bit by position.    

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11 hours ago, Frobby said:

By the way, of the 36  players I listed, the following are free agents: Castro, Dozier, Gennett, Kipnis, Schoop, Zobrist, Gregorius and Iglesias.   Cot’s lists another 23 players who are free agents at those positions.     I think the large supply with not that many openings is a big reason the demand for Villar appears soft.   

It makes sense for showing why Elias didn't want to pay $10m in arbitration for Villar, but we won't end up with a veteran free agent. It'll be some combination of Martin, Alberto, Wilkerson, and maybe another league minimum guy who may be Rule 5 or scrap heap pick up. 

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5 hours ago, Papeete said:

It's not what do 2Bs make, it's what do players producing on his caliber make.

WAR is a small amount of the process. Unfortunately stolen bases and batting average are more substantial. Homers too. 

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Which is why I gave information about the production of every player I listed.     But make no mistake, pay varies a bit by position.    

Thank you.

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9 hours ago, Philip said:

I understand that, but the projections are made for a reason, and the expectation would’ve been around that.

 But at 8 million per WAR, Villar’s supposed value would be 24 M The previous season, and even if Villar is only projected at ~2WAR next season, that would still be 16. Even if you cut those values in half, 4WAR at mill is still 16 for last season and 2WAR is 8 for next season, yet nobody, but nobody, was banging down the door of Mike’s office to acquire him, and the only logical reason for that is 1) Villar ain’t worth his projection, and 2) they think they can get as good or better performance for considerably less.

I remain surprised that they let him go to save an insignificant sum( Difference between what they were willing to pay and what his projected to get) But I understand it.

I don’t accept the premise of your first paragraph.    I don’t think major league teams set their expectations of what a player will make in arbitration around what MLBTR projects.    That’s just one guy’s opinion and the data shows he’s wrong.   MLB invests a lot of resources into making sure its teams understand the arbitration market, and the teams put a lot of resources into it, too.    They’re not relying on MLBTR.

As to the question of whether there’s been a fundamental realignment in the market value of WAR, I don’t think so.     The nature of WAR is the total WAR for all teams combined is a constant.     Thus, for there to be a fundamental realignment, you’d have to see a drastic change in total MLB payrolls.   That has not occurred, though to be sure, the market has been relatively flat for about 5 years now.    

Fangraphs re-calculates dollars per WAR every year based on the total dollars paid to free agents and the WAR they generated.    It’s not like they just made an assumption and stuck with it.    But the number has changed very little the last few years.   It’s basically been $8.0 mm/WAR since 2015.    Prior to then, it was increasing steadily.

Now, as I’ve said recently, using a flat $/WAR for all players regardless of how many WAR they are expected to generate, what position they play, or what scarcity exists at that position at a given time is inevitably going to be an oversimplification that will lead to individual players not fitting the simple model.

So, my belief is that Villar is not a part of some broad trend where players are becoming cheaper in terms of $/WAR.     I think there are factors specific to his situation that are causing teams to value him lower than $/WAR would indicate.    But I will be honest: I don’t completely understand it.   I’m surprised there isn’t more of a market for him.


 

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By the way, of the players I listed in the OP, 18 had 6+ years of service. Those 18 were paid $193.4 mm and generated 28.7 WAR, which equates to $6.74 mm/WAR.     Obviously, that’s less than the general average at all positions of $8.0 mm/WAR as calculated by Fangraphs.    That doesn’t surprise me, as I’ve been saying that pay varies a bit by position.    

Overall, there were a lot of players in that group who weren’t living up to their contracts last year.     Cano, Crawford, Kipnis, Gordon, Zobrist and Castro each got paid more than $11 mm while producing 1 WAR or less.  Collectively, those six players were paid 90.9 mm and produced 2.5 rWAR.   

Best bargain on the list was LeMahieu, 6.0 WAR for $12 mm.    Frigging Yankees!
 

 

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