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Villar Traded to Marlins for LHS Easton Lucas

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2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Please go back and read the whole exchange.

It was an example about the loss of leverage in trading Villar.

based on Orioles announcement in the Sun that they weren’t going to tender him, the looming deadline, etc 

It really had nothing to do with JD Power and everything to do with trade leverage.

That was indeed Elias’ big mistake in this whole process and one that I hope he learned from.

 Thanks 

It's not Elias' fault that the Reds, a good fit for Villar, decided to give Moustakes 2x-3x more than anyone predicted.  We could've tendered him a contract then tried to deal, but I don't think that would've made that big of a difference.  That's a lot of risk to get a top 30 org prospect versus a top 40 org prospect.  

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19 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If it's a 25 thousand dollar truck I should get multiple folks interested in it and should be able to get 20K or so for it from one of them.  That leaves a nice margin for the person buying the truck.

If it's a 17 thousand dollar truck I'll be lucky to get someone to take over the payments.

Let’s say it’s worth $25K for arguments sake.

 

Why would anyone give you anymore than necessary when you’ve disclosed that you are losing it either way in four days? 
 

They don’t care about you making any money over what you owe.

My point they will try to steal it based off your poor negotiating position.

Easton is a low probability prospect and likely no more than organizational filler.Its the best he could get based on the negotiating position that he created for himself 

 
If you don’t understand this principle we can just agree to disagree 

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1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

It's not Elias' fault that the Reds, a good fit for Villar, decided to give Moustakes 2x-3x more than anyone predicted.  We could've tendered him a contract then tried to deal, but I don't think that would've made that big of a difference.  That's a lot of risk to get a top 30 org prospect versus a top 40 org prospect.  

I get it @sportsfan8703, but that’s not the point. 

The point of the post was the negotiating position that Elias put himself in by telling the world in an interview that he was going to nontender him, the deadline where he would lose him approaching. 
 

It’s negotiations 101

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5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If the O's are working the phones hard trying to trade a player 2 weeks before they have to offer him arbitration don't you think teams are going to notice?  I don't think much leverage was lost here, I think teams had a pretty good idea that the O's were not going to tie themselves to Villar for his arbitration price.

We can agree to disagree 

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Just now, Roll Tide said:

Let’s say it’s worth $25K for arguments sake.

 

Why would anyone give you anymore than necessary when you’ve disclosed that you are losing it either way in four days? 
 

They don’t care about you making any money over what you owe.

My point they will try to steal it based off your poor negotiating position.

Easton is a low probability prospect and likely no more than organizational filler.Its the best he could get based on the negotiating position that he created for himself 

 
If you don’t understand this principle we can just agree to disagree 

Because I let it be known that I have multiple offers on the truck.  That's the leverage.  Each buyer knows that it's a profitable venture at 20K and they won't risk 5K of profit over $2,500. 

They also know that if the bank takes over the truck they are going to want 22K since they are going to want to recover expenses.

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1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

I get it @sportsfan8703, but that’s not the point. 

The point of the post was the negotiating position that Elias put himself in by telling the world in an interview that he was going to nontender him, the deadline where he would lose him approaching. 
 

It’s negotiations 101

I'm pretty sure the other GM's around baseball had a pulse of what was going on in the situation and I bet there's been fluid talks re Villar trade since about June of last season.  I don't think anyone involved was surprised.  The surprise was likely the Marlins actually trading something for him.  

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13 hours ago, backwardsk said:

Let’s face it, Easton Lucas — not a baseball name.  A left handed Hayden Penn.

Easton is a baseball name. Like, his parents probably named him that because they love baseball. 

4 hours ago, Ruzious said:

When he's talking about Mason McCoy as a possibility, you know there's a serious talent problem.  If Addison Russell ends up in 
Baltimore (not that there's any rumors yet), that'll likely create pr problems in addition to talent problems.  

Addison Russell deserves his own thread. All he needs is his own sob story, regret, wants a second chance to prove he's a good man, etc. Someone will give him a chance.

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

When he does make the show, he’s  going to be a fan favorite I bet.

This is kind of the point I want to make.

I'm 100% on board with this trade. Maybe the Easton kid hits, but I'd also have been 100% on board with simply letting Villar go for nothing. 

The O's know who they are, for once. They can hire circus clowns to roam the stadium if people want entertainment. Bannon, a potential replacement, would be entertaining. Mountcastle will be entertaining. Maybe Harvey, or some other pitcher will step up. I don't know exactly what will fill the MASSIVE ENTERTAINMENT VOID left by Villar (kidding), but it doesn't make any sense at all to pay the man ~$10 million to be fun to watch for 30 seconds in 25% of the games and move us from 55 to 57 wins. 

 

I'm not happy we have Elias in spite of this move. I'm happy we have Elias because of this moves, and others like it. He's keeping his eyes on the prize. The future. At some point it will be the now, but today is not that day and he knows it.

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21 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

1) I’d hope that the panel is objectively looking at the MASN figures. So the unpaid portion should be sitting in the bank collecting interest. This process has been no surprise to anyone since the Nationals have been fighting pretty much since day 1. 
 

2) I did not bring up the value of MASN. Nor do I care in this conversation. I’m not talking about profits just broadcast rights fees. The shares to broadcast games have to be there and I’m certain that the panel wouldnt award anymore than half of available revenue to be distributed for the exclusive rights to show their games.

3) We can argue payroll... but I’ll concede and drop my number to be stashed away by 10 million. I don’t know what access that Forbes has to proprietary info that would be needed for their report to be accurate. As I’ve stated before businesses write off everything but the kitchen sink in order to minimize their tax liability m. I’m confident that the Orioles are no different.

4) The gate implications are the result of poor performance, being viewed as cheap by its dans, and fan interest. I’m sure there will be a decrease as well. They just saved about $10.1 million on Villar versus the league minimum rule 5 guy who will replace him. 
 

6) I think 10 million in noNsalary expenses is more than a fair guess. If you have any proof at all that would make it 30-50 million dollars please share. You can buy a lot of $60,000 scouts and  I seriously doubt the salaries of the other executives he’s added are more than a couple million combined 

We agree about the good profit

I have no insight into the Forbes numbers.    I don’t take them as gospel but they’re the only numbers I have.   So, I work with them in the absence of anything else.     The operating profits they cite are (according to them) before any deductions for interest, depreciation or amortization.    So, if true, that minimizes the opportunity to play games with the accounting.    

It will be interesting this April to see what Forbes reports for 2019, especially for non-payroll expenses.    They don’t actually report that figure, but it can be deduced by that they do report: (1) revenues minus (2) operating profit, minus (3) player expenses = non-payroll expenses.    Per Forbes, these were $96.5 mm in 2018.    It will be interesting to see if there’s a significant uptick in 2019.

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10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Because I let it be known that I have multiple offers on the truck.  That's the leverage.  Each buyer knows that it's a profitable venture at 20K and they won't risk 5K of profit over $2,500. 

They also know that if the bank takes over the truck they are going to want 22K since they are going to want to recover expenses.

Are you guys sure you just don't want to completely take the truck apart and sell it piece by piece to the highest bidder on ebay?  

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1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Are you guys sure you just don't want to completely take the truck apart and sell it piece by piece to the highest bidder on ebay?  

You can't part it out before the bank would repossess it.  Just not enough time, even if you knew someone that needed a front clip and someone else looking for a drive-train.

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2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

When he does make the show, he’s  going to be a fan favorite I bet.

Thus insuring his release.:leaving:

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2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

As someone said earlier, the Orioles have a 0% chance of making the playoffs next year, with or without Villar.  There's no reason to pay someone that amount of money if he doesn't move the needle towards postseason play.  

I don't know who'd all of a sudden trade a "real prospect" for him at the deadline next year.  I don't think it works that way.  

Jonathan Villar is a good player, I liked him.  He was fun to watch.  "I'm buying a ticket to go see Jonathan Villar play," said no one ever.  The results for the 2020 Orioles will be the same without him as they would with him.  

So the O's should just give away good players for nothing, because they aren't going to make the playoffs next year?  As a fan, why do I care whether the O's have a cheap payroll?  This is fan abuse, pure and simple.

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40 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Please go back and read the whole exchange.

It was an example about the loss of leverage in trading Villar.

based on Orioles announcement in the Sun that they weren’t going to tender him, the looming deadline, etc 

It really had nothing to do with JD Power and everything to do with trade leverage.

That was indeed Elias’ big mistake in this whole process and one that I hope he learned from.

 Thanks 

I know, I took things off topic because I hate those Chevy commercials. Sorry.

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5 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

If they release Davis they owe him over $20M this year and $60M+ in total.  A Davis trade is essentially impossible unless they take on someone else's dumpster fire of a massive contract, so nothing they do is going to get them out from under his deal.

Non-tender or trade Villar and they owe him nothing.  They save about $10M that, at least in theory, can go to rebuilding the organization.

It may be cold and calculating, but it benefits the team's financial ledger and doesn't change their odds of making the postseason (goes from 0% to 0%) in the one remaining year Villar would have been here.

In my opinion, this makes it pretty clear that the league valued Villar's production about equally to what he's going to get paid.  So about zero surplus value, which is why they got an org guy for him.  I have to assume Elias has been trying to trade him all year and didn't get offers of much more than this.

True, but then why tender Bundy who is in a very similar situation? If you going to go all cold and heartless, do you really think Bundy s going to bring much back in trade?

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3 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

So the O's should just give away good players for nothing, because they aren't going to make the playoffs next year?  As a fan, why do I care whether the O's have a cheap payroll?  This is fan abuse, pure and simple.

It's trading wins 56, 57, and maybe 58 in 2020 for wins 92 and 93 in a few years.  Hopefully.

You should care about the payroll if that's taking resources away from building the organization and redirecting them to a few extra wins for a 5th-place team next season.

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