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Villar Traded to Marlins for LHS Easton Lucas

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52 minutes ago, Scalious said:

 So? They are at 57M with Villar. Name of the game is getting talent. $$$ is just a means. These are businesses that are given around a 200M revenue floor for the year. Told they have to spend some of that money on players. 47M payroll was probably pushing the wrong peoples buttons.

Getting a similar skilled player in FA was going likely require a mutli-year commitment. Which re-builders don't like to do.

Value is a fluid thing.

I think the league told Jeter he had to have at least a few players on the team making over the minimum or it might hurt negotiations on the new CBA.  I think that's the only reason they acquired Villar.

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5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It seems to me that Elias has three goals this offseason. Cut payroll (hopefully to be reinvested into the infrastructure of the organization), lose as many games as possible at the big league level next year (For better draft pick), and maximize any return for current players that he doesn't think will be part of a winning future here.

Even the relatively cheap resigning of Richards Bleier gives them a fairly low cost player who might bring back a player if a need arises from a contender if he can show he's fully healthy and pitching like he did pre-surgery.

If his thoughts are solely on the "strategic vision" of the future, then all of his moves makes sense, even the Villar move. The only problem I have with the Villar move under this scenario is could he have maximized Villar's value even more if Villar played well and a need arose from a contender during spring training or at the trading deadline. If that had happened, the chances are Elias could have netted a much better return than what he got now, though it appeared he wasn't willing to take that financial risk on to see if that scenario played out.

How could Villar's value have been maximized any more than it was last season? He was in the midst of a career year, they shopped him, and no one was interested. Why would you play that game of Russian roulette again when the industry consensus is that he will regress in 2020? 

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Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

I think the league told Jeter he had to have at least a few players on the team making over the minimum or it might hurt negotiations on the new CBA.  I think that's the only reason they acquired Villar.

I think you're going Jeter too much credit. Jeter is the Elway of MLB. He's an idiot with zero long term vision or game plan for the franchise. This is just one of many stream of consciousness type moves since he's taken over the reigns. That Gallen for Chisholm trade he made last year was a terrible move too. 

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1 hour ago, NCRaven said:

I think they want to flip him in season.  They're betting that they'll get more in return than they gave us in the first place.  We'll see.

I have my doubts.  The Orioles have been actively trying to trade him for a while and got little interest, and he's coming off a career year so he may trend down a bit.

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5 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

They didn't. It's just another reason to bitch, complain and second guess. 

They *weren't (not didn't). Batting 1,000 with my poor grammar today. Too much coffee...

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1 minute ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I think you're going Jeter too much credit. Jeter is the Elway of MLB. He's an idiot with zero long term vision or game plan for the franchise. This is just one of many stream of consciousness type moves since he's taken over the reigns. That Gallen for Chisholm trade he made last year was a terrible move too. 

You don't have to be a MacArthur genius to pick up a call from the league office, listen to someone tell you to get the payroll up, and go trade for Jonathan Villar.

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Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

You don't have to be a MacArthur genius to pick up a call from the league office, listen to someone tell you to get the payroll up, and go trade for Jonathan Villar.

...so we're going to assume that Jeter knows how to answer a land line? ;) 

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35 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Is there any chance that Elias has a need to use the funds that would have gone to Villar now for investment facilities, player development and international signings? I would have preferred to keep Villar, but if Elias ends up using that money into yielding multiple prospects I'm ok with it. Plus short term it's not like Villar turns the Orioles into a team that wins 81+ games. 

Potentially. I don't really know, but would be much happier with the Villar trade if we knew the money was needed for some kind of investment in the future.

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33 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

How could Villar's value have been maximized any more than it was last season? He was in the midst of a career year, they shopped him, and no one was interested. Why would you play that game of Russian roulette again when the industry consensus is that he will regress in 2020? 

Well clearly Elias agree with you. Villar's value could go up with need by a contender and if he continues to play like he did last year. Villar is in his walk year so he has every reason to be in the best shape of his career and at 29-years old and with his skill set, it's doubtful he is going to have a huge regression. 

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34 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

How could Villar's value have been maximized any more than it was last season? He was in the midst of a career year, they shopped him, and no one was interested. Why would you play that game of Russian roulette again when the industry consensus is that he will regress in 2020? 

Villar wasn't really in the midst of a career year at the trade deadline. His OPS was in the mid-700's in July. 

In fact, he only had one month with an OPS above .800, and that was August when his OPS was above 1.000. 

In other words, he didn't have much value last July. 

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3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Well clearly Elias agree with you. Villar's value could go up with need by a contender and if he continues to play like he did last year. Villar is in his walk year so he has every reason to be in the best shape of his career and at 29-years old and with his skill set, it's doubtful he is going to have a huge regression. 

Fangraphs has him projected for 17 HRs, 77 Runs, 66 RBI, 33 SBs, and .257 BA (with a .329 OBP). If he gets 600+ ABs again I think he can hit those numbers. If he doesn't, I think he'll fall short. And he'll provide you with average defense at 2B and below average defense at SS. Maybe I'm just being overly pessimistic, but I just don't see a player with those types of numbers being in high demand. If I'm wrong and the Marlins are able to flip him for a decent prospect I'll be the first to say I was wrong. 

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8 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Villar wasn't really in the midst of a career year at the trade deadline. His OPS was in the mid-700's in July. 

In fact, he only had one month with an OPS above .800, and that was August when his OPS was above 1.000. 

In other words, he didn't have much value last July. 

I hear you, but there still limited interest after his career year. For whatever reason it's pretty clear the other MLB teams aren't buying his success.

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Just now, wildbillhiccup said:

I hear you, but there still limited interest after his career year. For whatever reason it's pretty clear the other MLB teams aren't buying his success.

End of July you were getting a mid .700's poor fielding 2b/SS. This is a guy who was traded with another piece for Jonathan Schoop.

End of year you're getting a guy whose arb # is $10 million and who had one great month but was otherwise mostly still the mid .700's average at best fielding middle infielder. 

I seriously think the O's made out big time just by letting him go. We'd be marginally better with him, IMO, at a cost of $10 m. I don't think he'll net a great return at all at this year's deadline, but I guess we'll see.

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Just now, LookinUp said:

End of July you were getting a mid .700's poor fielding 2b/SS. This is a guy who was traded with another piece for Jonathan Schoop.

End of year you're getting a guy whose arb # is $10 million and who had one great month but was otherwise mostly still the mid .700's average at best fielding middle infielder. 

I seriously think the O's made out big time just by letting him go. We'd be marginally better with him, IMO, at a cost of $10 m. I don't think he'll net a great return at all at this year's deadline, but I guess we'll see.

Agree 100% with your last sentence. 

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