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Villar Traded to Marlins for LHS Easton Lucas

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4 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Easton Lucas is a stud. We stole this deal.

We certainly can't say that until he goes John Means. 

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1 hour ago, Greg Pappas said:

I'm struggling to understand this:

So, how much better is 31-year old Tommy Pham than Villar? He plays a different position, but still... I wouldn't think Pham is a more valuable commodity v. Villar.

We got virtually nothing in return for Villar, yet the Rays seemed to have made out quite well. Pham is being paid 8.6 million this coming season... and will go to Arb 3 in 2021 before heading to FA. So the money would appear similar for 2020.  I may be looking at this wrong, but it seems to me that the Padres overpaid or we were shorted. 

Well, let's look at Steamer projections. Villar is projected for 1.8 WAR in 2020, Pham is projected for 3.6 WAR. Using a flawed linear $/WAR calculation (best I have at the moment) and arbitration predictions.

Villar has 4M in surplus value (he obviously didn't have quite that much, by the available return)

Pham  has 32M in surplus value using the exact same calculation. (assuming the 8.6M arb salary for 2020 and a raise to 13M in 2021, with a .5 WAR loss to aging)

According to Fangraphs prospect valuation and grade, Edwards is worth 28M.

Hunter Renfroe projects for .7 WAR in 2020, but is controllable through 2023. If he doesn't improve his defense or contact issues and keeps hitting HRs, he'll probably be a non-tender candidate in a year or two. As a former touted prospect there is probably a chance for some untapped upside. 

Jake Croneworth isn't a big name prospect, but he statistically is very interesting, he projects to 1.5 WAR for 2020 (which is really good for someone with no MLB track record). 

So if anything, I'd say the Padres got the better of this deal.

It's a bet by the Padres that Edwards isn't a star because he doesn't have any power and the Renfroe is what he is. Both those things seem like good bets to me, plus they get a bat control SS, who even if he doesn't have everyday upside, can throw in the upper 90s with a hook out of the pen and if pretty much a perfect 26th man on the roster type, a true two-way talent. 

 

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9 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Well, let's look at Steamer projections. Villar is projected for 1.8 WAR in 2020, Pham is projected for 3.6 WAR. Using a flawed linear $/WAR calculation (best I have at the moment) and arbitration predictions.

Villar has 4M in surplus value (he obviously didn't have quite that much, by the available return)

Pham  has 32M in surplus value using the exact same calculation. (assuming the 8.6M arb salary for 2020 and a raise to 13M in 2021, with a .5 WAR loss to aging)

According to Fangraphs prospect valuation and grade, Edwards is worth 28M.

Hunter Renfroe projects for .7 WAR in 2020, but is controllable through 2023. If he doesn't improve his defense or contact issues and keeps hitting HRs, he'll probably be a non-tender candidate in a year or two. As a former touted prospect there is probably a chance for some untapped upside. 

Jake Croneworth isn't a big name prospect, but he statistically is very interesting, he projects to 1.5 WAR for 2020 (which is really good for someone with no MLB track record). 

So if anything, I'd say the Padres got the better of this deal.

It's a bet by the Padres that Edwards isn't a star because he doesn't have any power and the Renfroe is what he is. Both those things seem like good bets to me, plus they get a bat control SS, who even if he doesn't have everyday upside, can throw in the upside 90s with a hook out of the pen and if pretty much a perfect 26th man on the roster type, a true two-way talent. 

 

A couple of other points Pham just played his age 31 season Versus Villar's age 29. Their WAR the last 2 seasons combined Pham 6.3 vs Villar 6.7. They both had WARs below 1 win 3 seasons ago ..... I don't know anything about Steamer projections ....But they are basically the same player the past 2 years.

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Just now, Roll Tide said:

A couple of other points Pham just played his age 31 season Versus Villar's age 29. Their WAR the last 2 seasons combined Pham 6.3 vs Villar 6.7. They both had WARs below 1 win 3 seasons ago ..... I don't know anything about Steamer projections ....But they are basically the same player the past 2 years.

Those projections take all of that into consideration. 

I'm using fWAR because the projection I'm quoting does the same.

Over the last 2 years by fWAR, Villar was worth 6 WAR and Pham was worth 7.4 WAR, over the last 3 years the difference is more stark, with Villar at 5.6 WAR and Pham at 13.6 WAR. 

Basically, you have Villar who is a career 97 wRC+ hitter and Pham who is a career 129 wRC+ hitter. Is it possible for baserunning and defense to make up that difference? Yes, in 2019 it did. But as I laid out in an earlier post, Villar's 2019 season was a perfect storm of career best power output, career best defensive numbers at SS, career best baserunning, career best PAs. If you just regress all those career bests, that gets you most of the way down to the 1.8 WAR projection. Pham on the other hand under performed his career profile in 2019, some of that may be aging, but the projection thinks that regression toward career numbers (or recent career numbers) is going to be a stronger force than age related decline in 2020. 

 

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I don't really want to rehash the Villar thing, it's already been overdone IMO.  I think the return he got is evidence enough that teams valued him pretty close to the 1.8 WAR projection. 

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2 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

I'm struggling to understand this:

So, how much better is 31-year old Tommy Pham than Villar? He plays a different position, but still... I wouldn't think Pham is a more valuable commodity v. Villar.

We got virtually nothing in return for Villar, yet the Rays seemed to have made out quite well. Pham is being paid 8.6 million this coming season... and will go to Arb 3 in 2021 before heading to FA. So the money would appear similar for 2020.  I may be looking at this wrong, but it seems to me that the Padres overpaid or we were shorted. 

Edwards was clearly available. I’ll assume we kicked the tires and couldn’t make it work. He would have been a guy I’d be happy to get as we shed our few traceable parts. 

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4 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

 

Jeter makes Elway look like Bill Belichick in comparison. 

What am I missing here?    John Elway took over a franchise that had gone 4-12 and had not finished over .500 for four straight seasons.    They are 82-58 since he took over, and won a Super Bowl.   And if you want to say it was all Peyton Manning (which isn’t true anyway), who convinced Manning to come to Denver?    Elway.   

I’m not saying Elway is some Hall of Fame executive, and maybe it’s time for him to move on, but he’s hardly the guy to whom Jeter should be compared in order to denigrate his performance.   
 

 

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9 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Is there any chance that Elias has a need to use the funds that would have gone to Villar now for investment facilities, player development and international signings? I would have preferred to keep Villar, but if Elias ends up using that money into yielding multiple prospects I'm ok with it. Plus short term it's not like Villar turns the Orioles into a team that wins 81+ games. 

That's certainly possible, but why is Elias' budget so tight that the only way he can fund investing in facilities, player development and international signings is to trade every player making roughly a market salary, even though the O's were already going to have one of the lowest payrolls in the league?  

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37 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

That's certainly possible, but why is Elias' budget so tight that the only way he can fund investing in facilities, player development and international signings is to trade every player making roughly a market salary, even though the O's were already going to have one of the lowest payrolls in the league?  

Compared to how most MLB teams are run, the Orioles overstretched financially in 2016, 17, and 18. So you could argue that this is just the other side of that pendulum. 

Another possibility, not dependent on the first, is that a couple years of really low payroll is the trade-off with ownership for the freedom to remake the player development system, start spending on technology, International free agents, etc. 

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13 hours ago, SteveA said:

And we are immune to such criticism because of the Davis albatross?

Maybe?  The Marlins have no one besides Chen (again, released) on the roster who couldn't have been non-tendered and owed nothing for 2020.  The entire roster is pre-free agency.

The Orioles not only have Cobb and Davis, but more arb-eligible players. Or at least did before this week; we gave one to the Marlins and one to the Angels.

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7 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

That's certainly possible, but why is Elias' budget so tight that the only way he can fund investing in facilities, player development and international signings is to trade every player making roughly a market salary, even though the O's were already going to have one of the lowest payrolls in the league?  

Let's say the Angeloses said "You have $260M.  Out of that has to come payroll, player fringe benefits, all team expenses.  Whatever's left is your budget for rebuilding the team and getting us back to the playoffs. You get no more."

If I were Elias I'd be scheming every way possible to maximize what I could get out of that, and apply it to rebuilding.  Forbes thinks the O's ran a $6.5M deficit in 2018.  I don't necessarily believe it, but it's not like Elias has ($260 - 50M payroll) to spend on building.  I think/hope he has a productive plan for what to do with the $10M they saved on Villar, and the $5M they saved on Bundy.  And if not for those trades that plan would not be executed.

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11 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

A couple of other points Pham just played his age 31 season Versus Villar's age 29. Their WAR the last 2 seasons combined Pham 6.3 vs Villar 6.7. They both had WARs below 1 win 3 seasons ago ..... I don't know anything about Steamer projections ....But they are basically the same player the past 2 years.

Three years ago Pham was worth 6.2 wins, and got a few MVP votes.  The 0.8 is part of his 2018 season split between St. Louis and Tampa.

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