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2019 MLB Winter Meetings Grande Thread

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8 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

So Mazara has plateaued at the age of 24 and Mancini has not at the age of 27 (soon to be 28)? That might be your belief, but I'm willing to bet that the White Sox are banking on the younger player having the potential for more upside. Mancini might be better offensively (right now), but I think Mazara's youth closes the value gap between the two quite a bit. Maybe the Orioles can get a bit more for Mancini, but if this is any gauge it's definitely not going to be a considerable haul unless a team is desperate. 

I don’t think this is much of a gauge at all.    Mazara’s youth isn’t much of a factor since he’s only under team control for two more years.     It’s highly unlikely that he’ll improve enough in the next two years to be as good as Mancini over that period, plus as you noted Mancini is under control for an additional year.    Mancini's WAR last year was almost double Mazara’s WAR for his entire career.    

I don’t think Mancini would bring a giant haul in a trade, but Mazara is no measure of that IMO.
 

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6 minutes ago, weams said:

Cole signed with the Yankees. 

 

I think our two highest FA pitcher signings were absolutely horrible.  By total amount, that would be Ubaldo and Cobb, correct?

I suspect this deal will start becoming an albatross right around when the O's are decent again.

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47 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

You don't think Mancini was made available before the trade deadline last season? Because I sure think he was.

I suggest he was as well. 

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15 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

 

Angels gave away their first round pick from 2019 (Wilson) so the Giants would take on Cozart's $12.66M contract for 2020 in exchange for cash and a PTBNL. Wish the Orioles had made this deal.

I would have liked that as well then i would have some inside information on the team if he makes the majors. lol

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The Cole contract will almost surely become an albatross.  For sure if the Orioles had signed him.  I would not give ANYBODY a 9 year contract, certainly not a Pitcher, even if his name was Cy Young.  Every pitch is asking his arm to do something that is terribly stressful for it, not to mention the other parts of the body that take a pounding with each pitch.  

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1 minute ago, Oriole1940 said:

The Cole contract will almost surely become an albatross.  For sure if the Orioles had signed him.  I would not give ANYBODY a 9 year contract, certainly not a Pitcher, even if his name was Cy Young.  Every pitch is asking his arm to do something that is terribly stressful for it, not to mention the other parts of the body that take a pounding with each pitch.  

There is almost no chance Cole will earn his contact from a $/WAR point of view.     But the Yankees have a very good team right now, and if they win a couple of World Series with Cole fronting their rotation, will they really care if he doesn’t earn the back half of his deal?    If anyone can afford this, it’s them.    

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51 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think this is much of a gauge at all.    Mazara’s youth isn’t much of a factor since he’s only under team control for two more years.     It’s highly unlikely that he’ll improve enough in the next two years to be as good as Mancini over that period, plus as you noted Mancini is under control for an additional year.    Mancini's WAR last year was almost double Mazara’s WAR for his entire career.    

I don’t think Mancini would bring a giant haul in a trade, but Mazara is no measure of that IMO.
 

Mancini is one season removed from being a 1.2 WAR player, which is basically what Mazara's been. Maybe he turned the corner last season and will be a legitimate 35 hr threat from here on out, but until we see him do it again I'm taking that 4+ WAR with a grain of salt. I personally don't think we've seen Mazara's ceiling yet. I'm not ready to write him off at 24 and I think a change of scenery might do him good. 

Like I said in my prior post, I'm not denying that Mancini isn't the better right now, I'm just saying that most teams probably don't think Mazara has reached his full potential yet whereas they probably think that Mancini has. Most sites are projecting him to regress this year too. Steamer has him pegged for 1.9 WAR in 2020.  If Mancini is a 1.9 WAR player and if Mazara improves just a little bit they're basically the same player. 

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9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There is almost no chance Cole will earn his contact from a $/WAR point of view.     But the Yankees have a very good team right now, and if they win a couple of World Series with Cole fronting their rotation, will they really care if he doesn’t earn the back half of his deal?    If anyone can afford this, it’s them.    

Agree with this completely. I'd say if he helps gets them to two world series then he's earned it. 

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16 minutes ago, Oriole1940 said:

The Cole contract will almost surely become an albatross.  For sure if the Orioles had signed him.  I would not give ANYBODY a 9 year contract, certainly not a Pitcher, even if his name was Cy Young.  Every pitch is asking his arm to do something that is terribly stressful for it, not to mention the other parts of the body that take a pounding with each pitch.  

The difference is the Yankees have much deeper pockets which makes it much easier to be fiscally irresponsible. 

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The Cole contract is gross and bums me out but it is what it is. Yankees are pissed, they've been too close and choked a couple of times now. And now they have the Astros' #1 guy. 

Hopefully just in time for him to start sucking. 

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11 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Mancini is one season removed from being a 1.2 WAR player, which is basically what Mazara's been. Maybe he turned the corner last season and will be a legitimate 35 hr threat from here on out, but until we see him do it again I'm taking that 4+ WAR with a grain of salt. I personally don't think we've seen Mazara's ceiling yet. I'm not ready to write him off at 24 and I think a change of scenery might do him good. 

Like I said in my prior post, I'm not denying that Mancini isn't the better right now, I'm just saying that most teams probably don't think Mazara has reached his full potential yet whereas they probably think that Mancini has. Most sites are projecting him to regress this year too. Steamer has him pegged for 1.9 WAR in 2020.  If Mancini is a 1.9 WAR player and if Mazara improves just a little bit they're basically the same player. 

I think you are really stretching here.    Mancini has had seasons of 2.3 and 3.3 rWAR (1.6 and 3.6 fWAR).    Mazara has never had a season over 0.8 rWAR (0.9 fWAR). Those aren’t close.    The same Steamer projection that has Mancini at 1.9 fWAR has Mazara at 1.2 fWAR, which still leaves Mancini 50% better.   I don’t really dispute your point that Mazara, as the younger player by several years, is more likely to improve than Mancini is.  But at the same time, Mazara has been getting steady at bats for four years now (he actually has a few more plate appearances than Mancini), so it’s kind of hard to expect him to make a quantum leap at this point.    And even if he makes a solid jump, the White Sox only have two years to take advantage of it.    

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2 hours ago, weams said:

Cole signed with the Yankees. 

 

If the Yankee's ROI on Cole is equivalent to the O's on Cobb then I will at least chuckle.

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2 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

So Mazara has plateaued at the age of 24 and Mancini has not at the age of 27 (soon to be 28)? That might be your belief, but I'm willing to bet that the White Sox are banking on the younger player having the potential for more upside. Mancini might be better offensively (right now), but I think Mazara's youth closes the value gap between the two quite a bit. Maybe the Orioles can get a bit more for Mancini, but if this is any gauge it's definitely not going to be a considerable haul unless a team is desperate. 

I think you prove my point.  Mancini is the best type of cheap, cheap and in his prime. 

Mazara may be 24, but over four seasons:

1. has never hit more than 20 HRs

2. has plateaued at around 94 wRC

3. has a career WAR of 1.7.

4. has also only once had an OBP over .300. 

Mancini for comparison has:

1. Never hit less than 24 HRs (35 last year)

2. a season at 1.6 and a season at 3.6 WAR.

3. He has only once had a seasonal wRC below Mazaras best season

4. had an OBP of .360 last year,

5. has shown progression in stats.

I thought without having looked at specific stats this was a bad comp.  Now that I have looked at those stats this is a trash comp and shouldnt even be part of the conversation of what we would get for Mancini.

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