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2019 MLB Winter Meetings Grande Thread

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4 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I think you probe my point.  Mancini is the best type of cheap, cheap and in his prime. 

Mazara may be 24, but over four seasons:

1. has never hit more than 20 HRs

2. has plateaued at around 94 wRC

3. has a career WAR of 1.7.

4. has also only once had an OBP over .300. 

Mancini for comparison has:

1. Never hit less than 24 HRs (35 last year)

2. a season at 1.6 and a season at 3.6 WAR.

3. He has only once had a seasonal wRC below Mazaras best season

4. had an OBP of .360 last year,

5. has shown progression in stats.

I thought without having looked at specific stats this was a bad comp.  Now that I have looked at those stats this is a trash comp and shouldnt even be part of the conversation of what we would get for Mancini.

You've already started, you might as well compare him to the guy I think Mancini is comparable with.  Castellanos.  We're about to see ole Nick get 4/60ish.  Meanwhile Mancini might get around 3/20 over the his three arb years, and it's not guaranteed.  

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5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

You've already started, you might as well compare him to the guy I think Mancini is comparable with.  Castellanos.  We're about to see ole Nick get 4/60ish.  Meanwhile Mancini might get around 3/20 over the his three arb years, and it's not guaranteed.  

Castellanos.  5 full seasons.

1.  Two below 20 HRs, 3 above.  Never more than 27

2.  OBP average around .330.  One season at .354.

3. WRC over 100 every year except his first, capping out at 130

4.  Four seasons over 1.5 War.  Two season in the mid twos and one season at 3.0.

Same age as Mancini.  While I think Castellanos has also capped out as a player he is a significantly better comp.  His upside may not be has high as Mancini if Mancini holds steady production for the next three years, but I could also see Mancini settling in to the Castellanos range.  If castellanos gets anything close to $15 million per year then Mancini has significant trade value.

With some limitations I actually like the comp of when Cespedes was traded to the mets.  He was of similar age to Mancini at the time, had a similar short career to that point, a similar season.  Now he was a better defender (cannon arm) but also came with injury limitations.  He was also about to become a lot more expensive.

Cespedes was traded for Michael Fulmer and Luis Cessa.  Fulmer, who has had some decent seasons, was the 5th prospect in the Mets at the time.  Cessa was 9th.

 

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The Mazara-Walker deal hits me as neutral for Mancini's market.  The White Sox LF/RF spot vanishes, but a Rangers LF/RF one opens.  Walker's not a 2020 player, but the Rangers are a 2020 team that is opening a stadium and wants to get more right-handed.  Rooting for Rangers Rendon in parallel with Giants Castellanos for building his trade market for options.  If Rangers miss Rendon, suspect they'll just dive into Castellanos/Ozuna market.

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1 hour ago, OrioleDog said:

The Mazara-Walker deal hits me as neutral for Mancini's market.  The White Sox LF/RF spot vanishes, but a Rangers LF/RF one opens.  Walker's not a 2020 player, but the Rangers are a 2020 team that is opening a stadium and wants to get more right-handed.  Rooting for Rangers Rendon in parallel with Giants Castellanos for building his trade market for options.  If Rangers miss Rendon, suspect they'll just dive into Castellanos/Ozuna market.

Why would the Rangers sign an OF when the just traded one because they have too many? Donaldson seems like a much more likely plan B to me if they miss out on Rendon. 

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1 hour ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I think you prove my point.  Mancini is the best type of cheap, cheap and in his prime. 

Mazara may be 24, but over four seasons:

1. has never hit more than 20 HRs

2. has plateaued at around 94 wRC

3. has a career WAR of 1.7.

4. has also only once had an OBP over .300. 

Mancini for comparison has:

1. Never hit less than 24 HRs (35 last year)

2. a season at 1.6 and a season at 3.6 WAR.

3. He has only once had a seasonal wRC below Mazaras best season

4. had an OBP of .360 last year,

5. has shown progression in stats.

I thought without having looked at specific stats this was a bad comp.  Now that I have looked at those stats this is a trash comp and shouldnt even be part of the conversation of what we would get for Mancini.

You have an opinion. I have an opinion. There's absolutely no need to call mine "trash". That one line nullified every solid point you made (to me). 

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14 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Why would the Rangers sign an OF when the just traded one because they have too many? Donaldson seems like a much more likely plan B to me if they miss out on Rendon. 

As currently composed, I doubt the Rangers are content with any of 1B Danny Santana, 2B Rougned Odor or CF Delino DeShields as starters in a stadium-opening year.  Even with Rendon, Mancini would enable them to use Danny Santana Mora-style, which is probably more what you want from him instead of Starting 1B.   Their demand for "OF" Mancini would depend on them feeling the delightful CF Joey Gallo experiment can be continued.  Starling Marte fits them very well, if Cherington can get going.

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1 minute ago, OrioleDog said:

As currently composed, I doubt the Rangers are content with any of 1B Danny Santana, 2B Rougned Odor or CF Delino DeShields as starters in a stadium-opening year.  Even with Rendon, Mancini would enable them to use Danny Santana Mora-style, which is probably more what you want from him instead of Starting 1B.   Their demand for "OF" Mancini would depend on them feeling the delightful CF Joey Gallo experiment can be continued.  Starling Marte fits them very well, if Cherington can get going.

I haven't looked at the numbers, but I though Gallo fared pretty well in CF. Mancini at 1B makes more sense to me and agree with your point on them probably being more comfortable with Santana as a super utility type. Don't forget that also have Calhoun in the OF and can probably play Choo there as well sporadically. 

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10 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

As currently composed, I doubt the Rangers are content with any of 1B Danny Santana, 2B Rougned Odor or CF Delino DeShields as starters in a stadium-opening year.  Even with Rendon, Mancini would enable them to use Danny Santana Mora-style, which is probably more what you want from him instead of Starting 1B.   Their demand for "OF" Mancini would depend on them feeling the delightful CF Joey Gallo experiment can be continued.  Starling Marte fits them very well, if Cherington can get going.

Santana was very good last year.  He is a fine starter but probably not at 1B.  Hes better than Odor.

If they wanted Mancini that would probably start with Cole Winn and I would target Basabe as well.

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53 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I haven't looked at the numbers, but I though Gallo fared pretty well in CF. Mancini at 1B makes more sense to me and agree with your point on them probably being more comfortable with Santana as a super utility type. Don't forget that also have Calhoun in the OF and can probably play Choo there as well sporadically. 

They also have to find a spot for Nick Solak.  

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As of mid-day (west coast time) on the third day of the winter meetings, for Orioles fans, the more things change, the more they stay the same.  Claim a player jettisoned by a bad team and wait for the Rule 5 draft.  These meetings are rarely exciting for the Birds.  😞

My way of shaking things up.  Now they'll do something to spite me, I hope.

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1 minute ago, NCRaven said:

As of mid-day (west coast time) on the third day of the winter meetings, for Orioles fans, the more things change, the more they stay the same.  Claim a player jettisoned by a bad team and wait for the Rule 5 draft.  These meetings are rarely exciting for the Birds.  😞

My way of shaking things up.  Now they'll do something to spite me, I hope.

Exciting isn't always good.  Remember the Chris Davis signing?  :)

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2 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Exciting isn't always good.  Remember the Chris Davis signing?  :)

Oh, I understand.  Just a boring three days so far.  Unless you're a Nats or Yankees fan.

And to be clear, Fernando Abad on a minor league deal does not qualify as any more "exciting" as Marcos Diplan.

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On 12/8/2019 at 5:35 PM, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Might have a higher batting average than Chris Davis. Might be worth a Rule 5 pick.

I'd be much happier looking at her on the field than CD too. ;)

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1 hour ago, NCRaven said:

Oh, I understand.  Just a boring three days so far.  Unless you're a Nats or Yankees fan.

And to be clear, Fernando Abad on a minor league deal does not qualify as any more "exciting" as Marcos Diplan.

Would signing Franco be exciting? 

No matter what they do, it's not going to double attendance this year, that's for sure.

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4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Would signing Franco be exciting? 

No matter what they do, it's not going to double attendance this year, that's for sure.

Other than trading Mancini, I don't know that there's anything that they can do that I would consider "exciting."  And then I'd likely complain about the return!!  But, they have talked about adding middle infielders and starting pitchers.  Filling those holes in the lineup/rotation would at least be interesting if not exciting.

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