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Prospects Live 2020 Offseason Top 30 Orioles Prospects

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Interesting list and write ups.    Overall, he’s pretty high on our pitchers.    Let’s hope he’s right.   Elias hasn’t spent any high picks on pitching as of yet, so most of the guys on the list were inherited from the old regime.   

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Just to try to get some context for their grades, I added up the “realistic” and “ceiling” grades for the top 10 players in each of the 11 systems that Prospects Live has graded so far:

SEA 525/625

SDP 515/580

CWS 490/585

CLE 490/570

KCR 480/585

BAL 480/560

MIN 470/570

ARI 465/590

ATL 455/595

MIL 435/510

BOS 430/505

So, per this site, we’re exactly in the middle among the 11 teams in terms of realistic value, but 9th/11 in ceiling.     Not really where we want to be yet.    

Two caveats:

(1) I don’t know if this group of 11 teams just happens to include more than its share of the better farm systems.    That may be the case.    

(2) I was only looking at the top 10 for each system.    I suspect our system may be a bit deeper than some, even if the top 10 is just so-so.


 

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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Mountcastle- versatile defender!!!

That's what an additional 30-45 days in '20 at AAA does for a player......

And I'd add some laughing emoji or something but I don't know how, or why, to do that.

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The followup podcast came out today.

https://www.prospectslive.com/podcasts/2019/12/24/podcast-orioles-top-30-breakdown

Their Orioles guy gave Luke a cite  for some of his Elio Prado enthusiasm.  Among the insights that hit me as new/interesting were:

-slider perhaps Rodriguez's breaking ball, at least it was described more positively than the curve

-Frederick as a hitters paradise - I never thought of it as an extreme park

-DL Hall's control problems described as somewhat on purpose, due to the stuff he was working on.

-a lot of Baumann hype - their guy I guess saw him good everytime last summer.  From his buzz, Kremer being ranked ahead of him (and described as best player in Machado deal - it is a pessimistic Yusniel report) feels significant for this evaluator.  Due to 40-man status though, his suspicion was no Baumann until 2021.

-Gunnar graded with a double-plus arm tool.

-overall the ETA's floated hit me as way too slow (2022 in general for Adley/Grayson/Hall).  We'll see if Rutschman breaks PECOTA like Wieters did his one full year on the farm, but even if he only meets his mid-case expectations, it's still hard to picture him getting a second full year down.  Those knees only last so long.  And I hope by broad category Rodriguez/Hall fall closer to David Price than the many Tampa arms of lesser raw talent that were always held to one level per season, which may be sensible for 90% of even talented regular prospects, just not these guys please.

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1 minute ago, OrioleDog said:

The followup podcast came out today.

https://www.prospectslive.com/podcasts/2019/12/24/podcast-orioles-top-30-breakdown

Their Orioles guy gave Luke a cite  for some of his Elio Prado enthusiasm.  Among the insights that hit me as new/interesting were:

-slider perhaps Rodriguez's breaking ball, at least it was described more positively than the curve

-Frederick as a hitters paradise - I never thought of it as an extreme park

-DL Hall's control problems described as somewhat on purpose, due to the stuff he was working on.

-a lot of Baumann hype - their guy I guess saw him good everytime last summer.  From his buzz, Kremer being ranked ahead of him (and described as best player in Machado deal - it is a pessimistic Yusniel report) feels significant for this evaluator.  Due to 40-man status though, his suspicion was no Baumann until 2021.

-Gunnar graded with a double-plus arm tool.

-overall the ETA's floated hit me as way too slow (2022 in general for Adley/Grayson/Hall).  We'll see if Rutschman breaks PECOTA like Wieters did his one full year on the farm, but even if he only meets his mid-case expectations, it's still hard to picture him getting a second full year down.  Those knees only last so long.  And I hope by broad category Rodriguez/Hall fall closer to David Price than the many Tampa arms of lesser raw talent that were always held to one level per season, which may be sensible for 90% of even talented regular prospects, just not these guys please.

Elias seems to be very deliberate with promotions unless you are Cadyn Grenier.

I'm more in favor of challenging talented prospects.

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29 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Elias seems to be very deliberate with promotions unless you are Cadyn Grenier.

I'm more in favor of challenging talented prospects.

I wouldn’t judge Elias’ tendencies too much just yet.    Last year was really a chance for him to be extremely patient and evaluate the whole organization.    I won’t be surprised if he’s a little more aggressive in year 2.    

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5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I wouldn’t judge Elias’ tendencies too much just yet.    Last year was really a chance for him to be extremely patient and evaluate the whole organization.    I won’t be surprised if he’s a little more aggressive in year 2.    

I wasn't judging him.  I stated that he seems to be very deliberate.  I think that is an accurate statement given what we saw last year.  (Stewart, Sisco, Mountcastle, Diaz, Hall, Hall, Rodriguez)

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37 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

The followup podcast came out today.

https://www.prospectslive.com/podcasts/2019/12/24/podcast-orioles-top-30-breakdown

Their Orioles guy gave Luke a cite  for some of his Elio Prado enthusiasm.  Among the insights that hit me as new/interesting were:

-slider perhaps Rodriguez's breaking ball, at least it was described more positively than the curve

-Frederick as a hitters paradise - I never thought of it as an extreme park

-DL Hall's control problems described as somewhat on purpose, due to the stuff he was working on.

-a lot of Baumann hype - their guy I guess saw him good everytime last summer.  From his buzz, Kremer being ranked ahead of him (and described as best player in Machado deal - it is a pessimistic Yusniel report) feels significant for this evaluator.  Due to 40-man status though, his suspicion was no Baumann until 2021.

-Gunnar graded with a double-plus arm tool.

-overall the ETA's floated hit me as way too slow (2022 in general for Adley/Grayson/Hall).  We'll see if Rutschman breaks PECOTA like Wieters did his one full year on the farm, but even if he only meets his mid-case expectations, it's still hard to picture him getting a second full year down.  Those knees only last so long.  And I hope by broad category Rodriguez/Hall fall closer to David Price than the many Tampa arms of lesser raw talent that were always held to one level per season, which may be sensible for 90% of even talented regular prospects, just not these guys please.

What did I say that would make someone rank Prado that highly?

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I just searched OH and Twitter, all I've said able Prado is that I don't know much about him yet and that he reportedly has a mature approach. I hope he's not citing me on Prado.

Maybe he meant to cite me on DL Hall working on breaking/offspeed, Frederick being a hitter's park, the slider being Rodriguez's best breaking ball (although the curve has improved), or the Baumann hype. 

Those are all things I actually tweeted or wrote about. 

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I wouldn’t judge Elias’ tendencies too much just yet.    Last year was really a chance for him to be extremely patient and evaluate the whole organization.    I won’t be surprised if he’s a little more aggressive in year 2.    

And to add the obvious, there wasn't a full compliment of Elias chosen coaches and the programs being put in place were new. 

It's reasonable to expect more progress in year 2 as you say.

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39 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

And to add the obvious, there wasn't a full compliment of Elias chosen coaches and the programs being put in place were new. 

It's reasonable to expect more progress in year 2 as you say.

I don't see why it would be reasonable to expect faster promotion.  We have the data we have, I'd rather extrapolate from that. 

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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't see why it would be reasonable to expect faster promotion.  We have the data we have, I'd rather extrapolate from that. 

I’m not expecting anything.    Just not drawing any firm conclusions from the limited experience we have.    

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