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Luke's 2019 Rule 5 Draft Preference List

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Thanks, Luke.     I’d be curious where you would have placed the guys at the top of your list in the Orioles’ top 30, if they were in our organization.     I see that Cumberland is 43 here and Sedlock and Fenter are unlisted.    All three of those were in the OH top 30, so to me that implies that many on this list would be top 20 prospects if they were with the O’s, and some maybe in the top 10-15 range.  You’ve got 6 pitchers in your top 10 — any there that you’d rank up there with Akin or Kremer (understanding that they may be a little greener)?     As to the three outfielders, would you put them above Stower and McKenna?   Would Yonny Hernandez rank over Hernaiz and Hall?

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Great work.  Thanks.  This will be the first place to look after the draft, for sure.

Last year I had a preference for Martin.  And after looking at him for a year I'm ok with it.  He's Ceasar Izturis.  I'm not sure if anyone has commented on this earlier, but he even physically resembles him.  For a team that is going to be bad for a few years, and has no middle infield in the system, that isn't the worst outcome.

My only insight this year would be they need to seek upside.

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11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Thanks, Luke.     I’d be curious where you would have placed the guys at the top of your list in the Orioles’ top 30, if they were in our organization.     I see that Cumberland is 43 here and Sedlock and Fenter are unlisted.    All three of those were in the OH top 30, so to me that implies that many on this list would be top 20 prospects if they were with the O’s, and some maybe in the top 10-15 range.  You’ve got 6 pitchers in your top 10 — any there that you’d rank up there with Akin or Kremer (understanding that they may be a little greener)?     As to the three outfielders, would you put them above Stower and McKenna?   Would Yonny Hernandez rank over Hernaiz and Hall?

I'd like an answer on that.  I can't believe any of these guys would be in the top 15 on the O's list.  And really not even the top 20.

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15 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I'd like an answer on that.  I can't believe any of these guys would be in the top 15 on the O's list.  And really not even the top 20.

For what it’s worth, after last year’s Rule 5 draft, Luke ranked Richie Martin 22nd and Drew Jackson 24th on his Orioles prospect list.   Neither one was at the top of Luke’s Rule 5 list (Martin was 10th, Jackson was 16th), so I’d guess the 9 guys Luke liked better than Martin would have been ranked a little higher on his Orioles’ prospects list if we drafted them.   Of course, I think the OH top 30 this year is stronger than last year, so you might be correct that nobody on Luke’s 2019 Rule 5 list would crack our top 20.

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Just now, Frobby said:

For what it’s worth, after last year’s Rule 5 draft, Luke ranked Richie Martin 22nd and Drew Jackson 24th on his Orioles prospect list.   Neither one was at the top of Luke’s Rule 5 list (Martin was 10th, Jackson was 16th), so I’d guess the 9 guys Luke liked better than Martin would have been ranked a little higher on his Orioles’ prospects list if we drafted them.   Of course, I think the OH top 30 this year is stronger than last year, so you might be correct that nobody on Luke’s 2019 Rule 5 list would crack our top 20.

Well, it is a good question.  I'd like to hear Luke's thoughts.   But, imo, by their very nature Rule 5 guys should be pretty low on prospect lists.

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Quote

“It’s different than last year,” Elias said. “Last year we had Richie Martin as kind of a consensus pick at the top and we were like the perfect team to take him on because of our middle infield needs and the fact that we were rebuilding. This year it sounds like there’s more arms in the mix.

“It’s just a little more diverse group, and we have yet to make any type of decision.”

...

“I think as history dictates it’s easier said than done,” Elias said.

“In Richie’s case, we knew he was going to be able to help us out defensively, even as it would probably end up being a bench/utility/glove role, which is what it ended up being,” Elias said. “We knew we’d be able to have room for that on the team and he’d fill a role on the team. But it does happen.

“I look at (Anthony) Santander right now. He appears to be one of the success stories of taking a guy out of A ball and hiding him on your major league roster and then being able to put him back in your organization, so it’s worth talking about, but it is really hard to do.

“Now, that said, there’s a 26th man on the roster this year, so that might give teams more of an appetite to try it.”

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2019/12/more-winter-meetings-leftovers-for-breakfast.html

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53 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Thanks, Luke.     I’d be curious where you would have placed the guys at the top of your list in the Orioles’ top 30, if they were in our organization.     I see that Cumberland is 43 here and Sedlock and Fenter are unlisted.    All three of those were in the OH top 30, so to me that implies that many on this list would be top 20 prospects if they were with the O’s, and some maybe in the top 10-15 range.  You’ve got 6 pitchers in your top 10 — any there that you’d rank up there with Akin or Kremer (understanding that they may be a little greener)?     As to the three outfielders, would you put them above Stower and McKenna?   Would Yonny Hernandez rank over Hernaiz and Hall?

Good questions. I'd like to know as well.

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I'd like to see us target the RP Wandisson Charles with our first pick, then take a flier on a long term project.  Whomever they think that project may be, but someone like Javier, Newton, etc....

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Curious to hear your thoughts on my comparison in another thread of Buddy Reed to McKenna. Statistically they seem quite similar with Reed a little worse across the board in terms of strikeout rate and k/bb rate as well as OBP. Both have plus speed and plus defense in center. My impression is that Reed has a little more raw power, but McKenna also has raw power that he tried (unsuccessfully) to make more a part of his game in 2019. Both had breakout seasons at A+ before struggled in their first half season at AA followed by a successful AFL stint (although McKenna was better) in 2018 and then struggling in their first full season at AA in 2019 (McKenna was slightly above league average in OPS, Reed slightly below league average). Of course, McKenna is also two years younger. 

If McKenna were available in the Rule 5 Draft, where would he fall on your list?

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4 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Curious to hear your thoughts on my comparison in another thread of Buddy Reed to McKenna. Statistically they seem quite similar with Reed a little worse across the board in terms of strikeout rate and k/bb rate as well as OBP. Both have plus speed and plus defense in center. My impression is that Reed has a little more raw power, but McKenna also has raw power that he tried (unsuccessfully) to make more a part of his game in 2019. Both had breakout seasons at A+ before struggled in their first half season at AA followed by a successful AFL stint (although McKenna was better) in 2018 and then struggling in their first full season at AA in 2019 (McKenna was slightly above league average in OPS, Reed slightly below league average). Of course, McKenna is also two years younger. 

If McKenna were available in the Rule 5 Draft, where would he fall on your list?

My take on not drafting a player like McKenna, or slightly worse, is that if Mckenna doesn't have a good season in AAA, he might not be on the 40 man roster next November.  So why occupy another 40 man spot on a player like that?

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Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

My take on not drafting a player like McKenna, or slightly worse, is that if Mckenna doesn't have a good season in AAA, he might not be on the 40 man roster next November.  So why occupy another 40 man spot on a player like that?

Well not specifically to this case, but as a general rule:

It is better to have more bites at the apple; i.e. more prospects equal more players.

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