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Luke-OH

Luke's 2019 Rule 5 Draft Preference List

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7 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Cumberland is ahead of Sedlock and Fenter on my personal list.

Reed would probably be in the mid 20s, Tom and Palacios would be around McKenna.

Only Rijo would be up with Akin and Kremer. 

Fuentes would be around Wells.

Bailey, Sharp would probably be late teens or early 20s.

Yonny is more of a Rule 5 fit than a top prospect, I’d have him over Hernaiz just because of my uncertainty about Hernaiz (he’s lower on my personal list for that reason), but behind Hall (who has more chance to be a regular).

Fermin is probably the best prospect on this list and might be a top 10 in the O’s system. He’s kind of like Hall but a better approach. 

The relievers would be lower, all 20s or later, none better than a healthy Pop. It’s just relievers, and especially upper minors relievers are the easiest to carry.

I'm a little surprised this kind of relative talent is available in the Rule 5.

It suggests we have a long way to go.

Great work as always.  And I look forward to the draft.

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5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think I’d take one if these two.   It probably wouldn’t be possible to stash both.    

You're right.  Why stash them?  We're going to lose 110.  Play em.  

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1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

I can't imagine there are many equals in terms of depth and insight anywhere in the public domain. Really nice list, Luke.

I agree.  Hopefully, he'll get some retweets/likes from non O's fans as well.  He deserves it.  Great work.  

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18 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Cumberland is ahead of Sedlock and Fenter on my personal list.

Reed would probably be in the mid 20s, Tom and Palacios would be around McKenna.

Only Rijo would be up with Akin and Kremer. 

Fuentes would be around Wells.

Bailey, Sharp would probably be late teens or early 20s.

Yonny is more of a Rule 5 fit than a top prospect, I’d have him over Hernaiz just because of my uncertainty about Hernaiz (he’s lower on my personal list for that reason), but behind Hall (who has more chance to be a regular).

Fermin is probably the best prospect on this list and might be a top 10 in the O’s system. He’s kind of like Hall but a better approach. 

The relievers would be lower, all 20s or later, none better than a healthy Pop. It’s just relievers, and especially upper minors relievers are the easiest to carry.

My interpretation, we'll definitely end up with 2 guys.

My guess: pitcher first. However, while I understand draft and stash can tax a 40-man roster, certain rosters are more easily taxed than others. The 2020 O's would seem to be a fit.

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10 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

My interpretation, we'll definitely end up with 2 guys.

My guess: pitcher first. However, while I understand draft and stash can tax a 40-man roster, certain rosters are more easily taxed than others. The 2020 O's would seem to be a fit.

The 40 man is my concern as well.  As we will have to add two SP from somewhere to get us through the beginning of the season, but that bridge won't likely have to be crossed till ST.  Plus, we could potentially trade players.  

I'm all for taking a reliever first then a project with our second pick.  

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1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

Here are the pitchers with any 10+ innings of AAA experience.

Barlow

Megill

Clay

Hill

Robinson

Clouse

Brown

Misiewicz

Thank you

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@Luke-OH Thanks for this list. Tons and tons of detail. 

I think the O's are looking for ceiling with a pitcher rather than a higher floor which makes me think Wandisson Charles. But a stash year might really deter his development. Any thoughts on whether command can realistically be developed in an MLB year as opposed to a minor league year?

Is it accurate to say that Yonny Hernandez and Jose Fermin would provide adequate MLB SS defense today? And which winds up with the better career?

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2 minutes ago, interloper said:

 

Interesting.  I'm guessing Elias has identified some guys that he thinks are unlikely to be taken high in the draft, so he figures maybe we can get something additional by trading down and still get the Rule 5 guy we want.

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Just now, Number5 said:

Interesting.  I'm guessing Elias has identified some guys that he thinks are unlikely to be taken high in the draft, so he figures maybe we can get something additional by trading down and still get the Rule 5 guy we want.

Yeah that would appear to be the thought. Rule 5 intrigue!

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4 hours ago, Enjoy Terror said:

 


 

@Luke-OH what is “too raw” in this context? 

Haven’t faced many hitters with the present strength to take them deep or the discipline at the plate to lay off pitches off the plate.

Basically guys in the low minors.

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