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Rule 5: Brandon Bailey - RHP -Astros

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

 

If a pitcher was used purely as an opener in the manner wildcard suggests, every fifth day, he’d throw 96 IP.     Ynoa, used as he was, threw 110.2, including 13 starts of 64.1 innings.   I would need to think about the efficacy of planning 3 inning starts.   It depends a little on what’s happening the other days.   

I think what Elias will be looking for the rest of the off season and  even as the season begins are pitchers that he can acquire that offer length.    Either as starters, long relievers  or as guys that follow an opener.     On either major league or minor league contracts.

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Razzball's fantasy guy is gaga, predicting he'd be the Orioles best pitcher, touting specifically his Swinging Strike rate as one of the best in all the minors.

https://razzball.com/rule-5-draft-prospecting-for-fantasy-value/

I couldn't find SwStr% on Fangraphs, but he was 2nd in the Texas League in K% (26.7%) if you let the filter down to the 90 IP workload he cleared:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&lg=7&stats=pit&qual=90&type=1&team=&season=2019&seasonEnd=2019&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=8,1

For comparison, the K% of Baysox starters last year were:

Lowther 26.0%, Kremer 25.0 %, Baumann 24.3%, Zimmermann 23.8% Wells 18.9%

I'd set my initial expectation he'd be like Zimmermann/Wells having to make the team, but maybe he's more like the better AA guys.  At least in terms of pure dominance perspective - his control did lag all of them.

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3 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Razzball's fantasy guy is gaga, predicting he'd be the Orioles best pitcher, touting specifically his Swinging Strike rate as one of the best in all the minors.

https://razzball.com/rule-5-draft-prospecting-for-fantasy-value/

I couldn't find SwStr% on Fangraphs, but he was 2nd in the Texas League in K% (26.7%) if you let the filter down to the 90 IP workload he cleared:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&lg=7&stats=pit&qual=90&type=1&team=&season=2019&seasonEnd=2019&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=8,1

For comparison, the K% of Baysox starters last year were:

Lowther 26.0%, Kremer 25.0 %, Baumann 24.3%, Zimmermann 23.8% Wells 18.9%

I'd set my initial expectation he'd be like Zimmermann/Wells having to make the team, but maybe he's more like the better AA guys.  At least in terms of pure dominance perspective - his control did lag all of them.

He had the 32nd highest swinging strike rate of pitchers in the minors with 90+ IP. (15.3%)

Nick Vespi lead the Orioles system with 16.1%

Gray Fenter, Ryan Wilson, Grayson Rodriguez, and Michael Baumann are also in the top 50. 

Kyle Bradish is 54th. 

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Brad Keller's a notable success so far - he too was Rule 5'd after his AA season.  He was 41 games/20 starts in his first Royals season (relief in April/May), then a rotation regular last year.  Keller was a high school pitcher with youth and prototypical size, but Bailey looks to have a chance to do what he did.

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18 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Brad Keller's a notable success so far - he too was Rule 5'd after his AA season.  He was 41 games/20 starts in his first Royals season (relief in April/May), then a rotation regular last year.  Keller was a high school pitcher with youth and prototypical size, but Bailey looks to have a chance to do what he did.

I think I had Keller ranked around 15th on my preference list that year. What I didn't know was that his velocity had ticked up 2-3mph. 

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On 12/14/2019 at 9:18 AM, Luke-OH said:

I think I had Keller ranked around 15th on my preference list that year. What I didn't know was that his velocity had ticked up 2-3mph. 

What causes these velocity increases? Mechanics? Weighted ball training? Something else?

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10 minutes ago, weams said:

What causes these velocity increases? Mechanics? Weighted ball training? Something else?

Don't know in Keller's case. 

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This is from Brandon Bailey's blog. https://brandonbailey1994.com/2019/03/19/how-do-i-top-that/

It mirrors some of the things player development was doing with pitchers in the Orioles system in 2019.

"What I didn’t understand was that the Astros player development staff was purposely challenging me to get out of my comfort zone, propelling me to throw more curveballs and sliders rather than my bread & butter fastball-changeup combo. This new challenge forced me to deal with some failure and adversity; and while no player ever wants to be told that they have blaring weaknesses in their game, sometimes it’s the brutally honest conversations that lead to the biggest improvements.

“We’re not preparing you to have success in the Carolina League,” my High-A pitching coach Drew French explained to me one day after a tough outing, “We are preparing you to have success in the big leagues.”"

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12 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

This is from Brandon Bailey's blog. https://brandonbailey1994.com/2019/03/19/how-do-i-top-that/

It mirrors some of the things player development was doing with pitchers in the Orioles system in 2019.

"What I didn’t understand was that the Astros player development staff was purposely challenging me to get out of my comfort zone, propelling me to throw more curveballs and sliders rather than my bread & butter fastball-changeup combo. This new challenge forced me to deal with some failure and adversity; and while no player ever wants to be told that they have blaring weaknesses in their game, sometimes it’s the brutally honest conversations that lead to the biggest improvements.

“We’re not preparing you to have success in the Carolina League,” my High-A pitching coach Drew French explained to me one day after a tough outing, “We are preparing you to have success in the big leagues.”"

Good quote. @Luke-OH is there anyone that you noticed last year that coaching tinkered with what pitches they throw?  Could we see more of that this year given that the new regime has a year of observing under their belts?

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3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Good quote. @Luke-OH is there anyone that you noticed last year that coaching tinkered with what pitches they throw?  Could we see more of that this year given that the new regime has a year of observing under their belts?

Hall and Akin are confirmed as guys who were instructed to work on offspeed pitches, even behind in the count.

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12 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Hall and Akin are confirmed as guys who were instructed to work on offspeed pitches, even behind in the count.

Interesting.  Well that could be a reason to keep Akin down in AAA to start the season.  Let him keep working on things, versus just having to try and survive in the MLB.  

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From milb.com:

[T]his edition of Toolshed evaluates the stickiness level of all 11 players taken in the Rule 5 Draft on a rating of one (least likely) to five (most likely).

* * *
2. Brandon Bailey, RHP, Orioles (from Astros): The Orioles said Wednesday that they planned to target rotation help in the Rule 5 Draft, and they may have found someone in that vein in Bailey. Baltimore's new No. 21 prospect sports three above-average pitches in his fastball, curveball and changeup and is coming off a Double-A season in which he posted a 3.30 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP while fanning 103 in 92 2/3 innings. The knocks on Bailey are two-fold. First, he's on the smaller side at 5-foot-10. Second, he has some effort in his delivery, leading to some control issues (e.g., a 10.6 percent walk rate in 2019). The overall arsenal is good enough, though, for the rebuilding O's to keep the 25-year-old right-hander around like they did with Richie Martin in 2019, even if it means extending a longer leash to make that happen. Stickiness level: Five

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/toolshed-judging-rule-5-draft-stickiness/c-312187564

Bailey was the only player drafted who was rated a 5.

 


 

 

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I watched a couple more of Bailey’s outings (I’d watched parts of 3 for my list). 

The biggest question for me is whether he’ll be able to utilize the curveball effectively. He struggles to command the pitch, but it has a great shape and would not only be another weapon, but it’d help the fastball due to the spin mirroring. 

The changeup is better than I thought and it’s his best weapon against either handed batters.

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6 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I watched a couple more of Bailey’s outings (I’d watched parts of 3 for my list). 

The biggest question for me is whether he’ll be able to utilize the curveball effectively. He struggles to command the pitch, but it has a great shape and would not only be another weapon, but it’d help the fastball due to the spin mirroring. 

The changeup is better than I thought and it’s his best weapon against either handed batters.

Appreciate the insights. It’s not going to change what moves we make, but it does give us realistic expectations on tangible things that these players can do. 

My first thoughts to the Rule 5 draft, and then considering what we have in AA/AAA, plus the 6 pitchers Elias just brought in, is that the one inning guys better show they belong or they won’t be around in November. “Traditional” Relievers like Kline, Phillips, Hanhold, Sulser, Scott, Fry, Armstrong, and Carroll.  

Until we have a stable rotation, which doesn’t look possible till mid 2021, we’re going to value multi inning arms with options. Guys like Bleier, Castro, Harvey, Tate, Diplan, Hess, and guys coming up from the minors. 

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