Jump to content
baltfan

Rule 5: Brandon Bailey - RHP -Astros

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

 

If a pitcher was used purely as an opener in the manner wildcard suggests, every fifth day, he’d throw 96 IP.     Ynoa, used as he was, threw 110.2, including 13 starts of 64.1 innings.   I would need to think about the efficacy of planning 3 inning starts.   It depends a little on what’s happening the other days.   

I think what Elias will be looking for the rest of the off season and  even as the season begins are pitchers that he can acquire that offer length.    Either as starters, long relievers  or as guys that follow an opener.     On either major league or minor league contracts.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Razzball's fantasy guy is gaga, predicting he'd be the Orioles best pitcher, touting specifically his Swinging Strike rate as one of the best in all the minors.

https://razzball.com/rule-5-draft-prospecting-for-fantasy-value/

I couldn't find SwStr% on Fangraphs, but he was 2nd in the Texas League in K% (26.7%) if you let the filter down to the 90 IP workload he cleared:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&lg=7&stats=pit&qual=90&type=1&team=&season=2019&seasonEnd=2019&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=8,1

For comparison, the K% of Baysox starters last year were:

Lowther 26.0%, Kremer 25.0 %, Baumann 24.3%, Zimmermann 23.8% Wells 18.9%

I'd set my initial expectation he'd be like Zimmermann/Wells having to make the team, but maybe he's more like the better AA guys.  At least in terms of pure dominance perspective - his control did lag all of them.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Razzball's fantasy guy is gaga, predicting he'd be the Orioles best pitcher, touting specifically his Swinging Strike rate as one of the best in all the minors.

https://razzball.com/rule-5-draft-prospecting-for-fantasy-value/

I couldn't find SwStr% on Fangraphs, but he was 2nd in the Texas League in K% (26.7%) if you let the filter down to the 90 IP workload he cleared:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&lg=7&stats=pit&qual=90&type=1&team=&season=2019&seasonEnd=2019&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=8,1

For comparison, the K% of Baysox starters last year were:

Lowther 26.0%, Kremer 25.0 %, Baumann 24.3%, Zimmermann 23.8% Wells 18.9%

I'd set my initial expectation he'd be like Zimmermann/Wells having to make the team, but maybe he's more like the better AA guys.  At least in terms of pure dominance perspective - his control did lag all of them.

He had the 32nd highest swinging strike rate of pitchers in the minors with 90+ IP. (15.3%)

Nick Vespi lead the Orioles system with 16.1%

Gray Fenter, Ryan Wilson, Grayson Rodriguez, and Michael Baumann are also in the top 50. 

Kyle Bradish is 54th. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brad Keller's a notable success so far - he too was Rule 5'd after his AA season.  He was 41 games/20 starts in his first Royals season (relief in April/May), then a rotation regular last year.  Keller was a high school pitcher with youth and prototypical size, but Bailey looks to have a chance to do what he did.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Brad Keller's a notable success so far - he too was Rule 5'd after his AA season.  He was 41 games/20 starts in his first Royals season (relief in April/May), then a rotation regular last year.  Keller was a high school pitcher with youth and prototypical size, but Bailey looks to have a chance to do what he did.

I think I had Keller ranked around 15th on my preference list that year. What I didn't know was that his velocity had ticked up 2-3mph. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/14/2019 at 9:18 AM, Luke-OH said:

I think I had Keller ranked around 15th on my preference list that year. What I didn't know was that his velocity had ticked up 2-3mph. 

What causes these velocity increases? Mechanics? Weighted ball training? Something else?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, weams said:

What causes these velocity increases? Mechanics? Weighted ball training? Something else?

Don't know in Keller's case. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is from Brandon Bailey's blog. https://brandonbailey1994.com/2019/03/19/how-do-i-top-that/

It mirrors some of the things player development was doing with pitchers in the Orioles system in 2019.

"What I didn’t understand was that the Astros player development staff was purposely challenging me to get out of my comfort zone, propelling me to throw more curveballs and sliders rather than my bread & butter fastball-changeup combo. This new challenge forced me to deal with some failure and adversity; and while no player ever wants to be told that they have blaring weaknesses in their game, sometimes it’s the brutally honest conversations that lead to the biggest improvements.

“We’re not preparing you to have success in the Carolina League,” my High-A pitching coach Drew French explained to me one day after a tough outing, “We are preparing you to have success in the big leagues.”"

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

This is from Brandon Bailey's blog. https://brandonbailey1994.com/2019/03/19/how-do-i-top-that/

It mirrors some of the things player development was doing with pitchers in the Orioles system in 2019.

"What I didn’t understand was that the Astros player development staff was purposely challenging me to get out of my comfort zone, propelling me to throw more curveballs and sliders rather than my bread & butter fastball-changeup combo. This new challenge forced me to deal with some failure and adversity; and while no player ever wants to be told that they have blaring weaknesses in their game, sometimes it’s the brutally honest conversations that lead to the biggest improvements.

“We’re not preparing you to have success in the Carolina League,” my High-A pitching coach Drew French explained to me one day after a tough outing, “We are preparing you to have success in the big leagues.”"

Good quote. @Luke-OH is there anyone that you noticed last year that coaching tinkered with what pitches they throw?  Could we see more of that this year given that the new regime has a year of observing under their belts?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Good quote. @Luke-OH is there anyone that you noticed last year that coaching tinkered with what pitches they throw?  Could we see more of that this year given that the new regime has a year of observing under their belts?

Hall and Akin are confirmed as guys who were instructed to work on offspeed pitches, even behind in the count.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Hall and Akin are confirmed as guys who were instructed to work on offspeed pitches, even behind in the count.

Interesting.  Well that could be a reason to keep Akin down in AAA to start the season.  Let him keep working on things, versus just having to try and survive in the MLB.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From milb.com:

[T]his edition of Toolshed evaluates the stickiness level of all 11 players taken in the Rule 5 Draft on a rating of one (least likely) to five (most likely).

* * *
2. Brandon Bailey, RHP, Orioles (from Astros): The Orioles said Wednesday that they planned to target rotation help in the Rule 5 Draft, and they may have found someone in that vein in Bailey. Baltimore's new No. 21 prospect sports three above-average pitches in his fastball, curveball and changeup and is coming off a Double-A season in which he posted a 3.30 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP while fanning 103 in 92 2/3 innings. The knocks on Bailey are two-fold. First, he's on the smaller side at 5-foot-10. Second, he has some effort in his delivery, leading to some control issues (e.g., a 10.6 percent walk rate in 2019). The overall arsenal is good enough, though, for the rebuilding O's to keep the 25-year-old right-hander around like they did with Richie Martin in 2019, even if it means extending a longer leash to make that happen. Stickiness level: Five

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/toolshed-judging-rule-5-draft-stickiness/c-312187564

Bailey was the only player drafted who was rated a 5.

 


 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I watched a couple more of Bailey’s outings (I’d watched parts of 3 for my list). 

The biggest question for me is whether he’ll be able to utilize the curveball effectively. He struggles to command the pitch, but it has a great shape and would not only be another weapon, but it’d help the fastball due to the spin mirroring. 

The changeup is better than I thought and it’s his best weapon against either handed batters.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I watched a couple more of Bailey’s outings (I’d watched parts of 3 for my list). 

The biggest question for me is whether he’ll be able to utilize the curveball effectively. He struggles to command the pitch, but it has a great shape and would not only be another weapon, but it’d help the fastball due to the spin mirroring. 

The changeup is better than I thought and it’s his best weapon against either handed batters.

Appreciate the insights. It’s not going to change what moves we make, but it does give us realistic expectations on tangible things that these players can do. 

My first thoughts to the Rule 5 draft, and then considering what we have in AA/AAA, plus the 6 pitchers Elias just brought in, is that the one inning guys better show they belong or they won’t be around in November. “Traditional” Relievers like Kline, Phillips, Hanhold, Sulser, Scott, Fry, Armstrong, and Carroll.  

Until we have a stable rotation, which doesn’t look possible till mid 2021, we’re going to value multi inning arms with options. Guys like Bleier, Castro, Harvey, Tate, Diplan, Hess, and guys coming up from the minors. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


Orioles Information


Orioles News and Information

Daily Organizational Boxscores
News

Tony's Takes

Orioles Roster Resource

Orioles Prospect Information

2018 End of Season Top 30 Prospects List

Prospect Scouting Reports

Statistics

2019 Orioles Stats

2019 Orioles Minor League Stats

Baseball Savant Stats






  • Posts

    • I know it is extreme small sample, but when was the last time he put together 8 PA's anywhere near what he's done so far? Is it too early to say the bulking may be helping and there's a chance of a .700 OPS this year? Going opposite field too. New swing?
    • Valaika has been most impressive of all the infield cannon fodder Urias a close second.  I like Holiday behind the plate.  Sets up well ,mobile uses his body doesn’t swat with the glove at bad pitches.  Occasional pop in the bat.     pitching wise I agree with Hanhold and Carroll looking the best of the periphery pitchers Larkins, Sulser and Armstrong are the only others that consistently have been throwing  strikes   lots of wildness so far, but it’s early
    • Sorry, my dreams are going to be more worthy, then if Davis crushes or not.
    • I have laid out in another thread how I don't think that is remotely possible. The Pirates fans are being sold a proverbial bridge is Brooklyn by their ownership, whois trying to convince their fans a rebuild is necessary as a guide to make money off the team.  Nuttings number one asset outside of the pirates...Seven Springs.  How's that southern PA ski slope doing for ya? The pirates lineup has an MVP caliber player in Bell who put up a .900 OPS last year.  Brian Reynolds, Osuna, Frazier, and Newman are all capable of .800 OPS. Their top prospects are near MLB ready.  Kebryan Hayes is a phenomenal 3B talent.  O'Neil Cousins and Cole Tucker are ready with minimal time at AAA. Pitching is an issue, but Archer started to rebound last year, Musgrove vastly underperformed his peripherals, Chad Kuhl should be coming back from injury, Trevor Williams has proven to be more than capable and Mitch Keller is a top pitching prospect (top 10 MLB).  Put it this way, the only Orioles starter who would make their rotation is Means.  Their bullpen has some very solid pieces.   I think there is little chance this team is the worst in baseball barring a huge sell off.  And if that happens the fans in Pittsburgh should riot.  
    • If someone takes him and the O's eat 90 percent of his salary, that's still a win. I think it is a near impossibility too but as I said: a man can dream.
    • Not a bad list.  For me, while I like most everyone on the list, I think there is a noticeable drop-off in upside at 17 after Rom who is in front of Bannon and Sedlock.   It seems likely or possible that we will lose Mountcastle, Hays, Diaz, Baumann, Kremer, Lowther, Akin and Harvey off the top of this list - seven of our top 12 unless the FO really slow-plays the promotions (or the guys don't produce and lose prospect luster).  If our FO slow-promotes, it would be the clearest indication to me that we are likely in tanking mode again next season.  Perhaps not full tanking, but more of a "we are promoting guys to the majors, but not supplementing them with quality free agents".  Assuming the guys are doing fine or well in the minors, I sure would like to see Baumann, Lowther, Akin and Kremer tested in the majors this season.  I think it is important for their development that they start their major league experience sooner than later if they deserve it and to see what we have in them entering 2021.   If our 2020 draft has the same impact on the top 15 of the above list (see AR, Henderson and Stowers), then it seems likely that next year's list would be of comparable strength, but perhaps not a much stronger one without existing prospects (most likely candidates for that step up to include IMO Henderson, Adam Hall, Darell Hernaiz, Toby Welk, Drew Rom, Stowers and then perhaps a drop-off to Watson, Janvrin, Dashbach and a couple others) stepping up or some international prospects starting to impact the list or quality prospects received in trade (Mancini).
    • It might not be dumb, depending on the situation and how much salary the Orioles eat.   But I’m not going to waste my time arguing about hypotheticals that are extremely unlikely to happen.     
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...