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Frobby

Pipeline next five years

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

2020: Bailey, Rucker, Mountcastle, Akin, Kremer, Zimmermann

I'm pretty stoked for the 1-2 punch of Brandon Bailey and Michael Rucker

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16 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We're also going to add 2020's #2 overall pick, and probably #1 overall pick.  We'll have a nice group of high end prospects with a bunch of depth guys behind them to fill out the roster.  We still lack SS depth.  That could change if we take Martin in this upcoming draft.  

And don't discount having #31 and the biggest draft budget of any team. 

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Well, upon thinking about it, there’s certainly precedent.    

Hays: drafted in 2016, major league call-up in Sept. 2017.

Mancini: drafted in 2013, September call-up in 2016.    

Stewart: drafted in 2015, September call-up in 2018.

The Mancini/Stewart timetable would get Stowers here in 2022.    But, like with Akin and Mountcastle, Elias may not want to get clocks running by calling up players in September.    And keep in mind, the rules are changing this year and September call-ups will be far more limited.   So, I’d still project Stowers for no earlier than 2023, but perhaps I was too conservative in saying 2024.    Of course, he didn’t dominate in short season ball, so we’ll see how quickly he moves.   

 

 

So one thing I'm curious is if Akin and Mountcastle have other reasons for being held back.  In the Brandon Bailey thread, he was quoted saying that Chris Holt made a bunch of changes and/or gave homework for him to progress.  There was several different mentions of approaches for Akin and things he was working on for the first time.  They had tasks for Mountcastle as well. 

Fast forward to 2-3 years from now, if the system that started last year is still in place and the guys have had consistent teachings throughout, maybe even Akin and Mountcastle clones would be ready sooner, having already learned these things.  (Meaning a call up would have been last year had the system been installed 3 years ago....am I making sense...haha). 

Hard for you to project those type things, but I do wonder if Akin/Mountcastle was partially due to changes that were thrown at them.

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14 minutes ago, jerios55 said:

So one thing I'm curious is if Akin and Mountcastle have other reasons for being held back.  In the Brandon Bailey thread, he was quoted saying that Chris Holt made a bunch of changes and/or gave homework for him to progress.  There was several different mentions of approaches for Akin and things he was working on for the first time.  They had tasks for Mountcastle as well. 

Fast forward to 2-3 years from now, if the system that started last year is still in place and the guys have had consistent teachings throughout, maybe even Akin and Mountcastle clones would be ready sooner, having already learned these things.  (Meaning a call up would have been last year had the system been installed 3 years ago....am I making sense...haha). 

Hard for you to project those type things, but I do wonder if Akin/Mountcastle was partially due to changes that were thrown at them.

Akin struggled horribly last season, failing to go deep into games and instead had a lot of "pitches per at bat."

Maybe it was the new ball at AAA, working on new stuff, or a combination of both. 

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I look at Bailey and Rucker more as potential clogs in the pipeline that may slow other pitchers from advancing. I hope they impress, but it is easier to hide a Rule 5 position player for a year than a pitcher IMO.

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9 minutes ago, UpstateNYfan said:

I look at Bailey and Rucker more as potential clogs in the pipeline that may slow other pitchers from advancing. I hope they impress, but it is easier to hide a Rule 5 position player for a year than a pitcher IMO.

Being the 54 win team we are, I don't think we're looking to hide these two guys.  I think we're looking for them to give us innings.  They're not holding anyone back.  

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22 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Akin struggled horribly last season, failing to go deep into games and instead had a lot of "pitches per at bat."

Maybe it was the new ball at AAA, working on new stuff, or a combination of both. 

I think his statistics in comparison to the league were actually very good. It wasn't the perfect year, for sure, but "struggled horribly" just isn't true.

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34 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Akin struggled horribly last season, failing to go deep into games and instead had a lot of "pitches per at bat."

Maybe it was the new ball at AAA, working on new stuff, or a combination of both. 

I'm just saying it may not be service time related, as is suggested at times.  I bolded the service time part and didn't explain well. 

It may very well be more about changes to the system that asked him to make a bunch of changes (and the ball maybe too).  I'm wondering if Elias was here in 2016, if Akin would have been more prepared to be called up in 2019.  I have no idea if his remaining in Norfolk were related to AAA players, changes to approach, changes to ball or something else.

 

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14 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I think his statistics in comparison to the league were actually very good. It wasn't the perfect year, for sure, but "struggled horribly" just isn't true.

It was a lot of "3" and "4" inning appearances by him with extremely high pitch counts. That was "struggling horribly."

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Frobby, when you put a guy in a given year, does a "cup of coffee" in that year count? I can't imagine rushing Rutschman any faster than that.

Is this a pipeline of when they could make it, or when they will make it? I am not sold on Bannon or McKenna. Either one could make it this year with a breakout year, or never make it.

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1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Being the 54 win team we are, I don't think we're looking to hide these two guys.  I think we're looking for them to give us innings.  They're not holding anyone back.  

Being where we are, it's not a big deal. I cannot completely agree that they are not going to hold anyone back. It doesn't make the BP fluid as it might be without them. We just might be looking at the 54 (or 47) win team with envy this year, 0-19 against the Yankees?

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1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

I think his statistics in comparison to the league were actually very good. It wasn't the perfect year, for sure, but "struggled horribly" just isn't true.

 

1 hour ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

It was a lot of "3" and "4" inning appearances by him with extremely high pitch counts. That was "struggling horribly."

Yeah, I don’t know if I’d say he “struggled horribly” (his ERA was below league average), but I’d call his year somewhat disappointing and say he didn’t do enough to earn a call-up or presumptively earn a spot in our 2020 Opening Day rotation.    My guess is he starts in Norfolk and gets called up after someone else is struggling 4-5 starts into the season, unless he’s absolutely bombing in Norfolk then.    

PS - I agree the many short starts were a concern.   
 

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2 hours ago, jerios55 said:

So one thing I'm curious is if Akin and Mountcastle have other reasons for being held back.  In the Brandon Bailey thread, he was quoted saying that Chris Holt made a bunch of changes and/or gave homework for him to progress.  There was several different mentions of approaches for Akin and things he was working on for the first time.  They had tasks for Mountcastle as well. 

Fast forward to 2-3 years from now, if the system that started last year is still in place and the guys have had consistent teachings throughout, maybe even Akin and Mountcastle clones would be ready sooner, having already learned these things.  (Meaning a call up would have been last year had the system been installed 3 years ago....am I making sense...haha). 

Hard for you to project those type things, but I do wonder if Akin/Mountcastle was partially due to changes that were thrown at them.

Other than service time what other reason can you come up with for Mountcastle not getting a September promotion?

If he needs to work on plate discipline and defense why not do it in the majors instead of sitting on the couch?  He was going on the 40 during the offseason anyway.

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22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

Yeah, I don’t know if I’d say he “struggled horribly” (his ERA was below league average), but I’d call his year somewhat disappointing and say he didn’t do enough to earn a call-up or presumptively earn a spot in our 2020 Opening Day rotation.    My guess is he starts in Norfolk and gets called up after someone else is struggling 4-5 starts into the season, unless he’s absolutely bombing in Norfolk then.    

PS - I agree the many short starts were a concern.   
 

He did not struggle horribly  I watched him live look great several times. 

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