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Frobby

Give me your rosiest semi-realistic scenario for 2020

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I wouldn’t wish injuries on anyone.    And, it’s virtually impossible that the Yankees will have as many injuries in 2020 as they had in 2019.      Their 2019 total of 1,838 games missed was about 50% higher than any other AL East team experienced in any year in the last decade.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Mountcastle and Hays get ROY consideration.  If one of them wins it, that would be amazing.

Alberto rakes against lefties still, comes around on righties to make himself a good every day player.  

Mancini repeats last years performance.

Means is in line with what he did last year.

Hunter Harvey is electric, stays healthy all season.

Davis is released at some point or another.

Rutschman kills it in the minors.

Hall irons out his control issues, is electric.

Gray-Rod is dominant, ascends to top 25 prospect status.

 

Pretty much nails it.

I would add that Cobb pitches well enough to be traded for a couple SYOD's, whether or not he is actually traded is kind of secondary. 

Would love to see Hanser and Ruiz add more power like they did in the second half. As Bob knows I love Ruiz and would be thrilled if he was more than a utility piece. 

One of the Rule 5's pitches well enough to chip away at CoC's anti-Rule 5 stance. 

One of the MI/SS prospects in the system makes a big leap.

Diaz stays healthy and rakes, earns a late season callup. 

Sisco and Mullins show something after working with swing coaches all winter. 

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2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The '18 Orioles traded Schoop, Machado, Gausman, Brach and they were a few percentage points better in the second half.

The '19 Orioles traded Cashner and played significantly better the second half.

Just to be clear, the O’s went 4-5 in the second half before Schoop, Gausman and Brach were traded.   Take those games out and their record was a little worse after the trades than before them (except for the Manny trade).     I don’t think it changes your point though.   

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2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I disagree with the notion that the rebuild hinges upon collecting #1 picks.

Yeah, we really need the international signing classes to go from dead last, to top 10.  If we don't have that, we're just losing whatever ground we make up with the high draft picks.  

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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I disagree with the notion that the rebuild hinges upon collecting #1 picks.

Yup, looking at the last 15 drafts from 2002 to 2016 (tough to judge the last three where players haven't reached the Majors yet), the #1 pick was only the most successful of the top 5 picks in 2007 (Price), 2009 (Strasburg), 2011 (Cole although Rendon at 6 has been better) and 2012 (Correa). You can argue 2010 (Harper over Machado) as well, but the bottom line is that #1 picks fail all the time. 

Punting on entire seasons to try to end up with the #1 pick instead of the #3-5 pick is insulting to the fans and probably isn't great for the development of the players on the Major League roster who are trying to win despite the wishes of management.

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2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I disagree with the notion that the rebuild hinges upon collecting #1 picks.

Agreed. If we're relying strictly on that, we're screwed. Things like development and international stuff will hopefully play a much larger role. Any GM can decide to lose 100 games.

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1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

Yup, looking at the last 15 drafts from 2002 to 2016 (tough to judge the last three where players haven't reached the Majors yet), the #1 pick was only the most successful of the top 5 picks in 2007 (Price), 2009 (Strasburg), 2011 (Cole although Rendon at 6 has been better) and 2012 (Correa). You can argue 2010 (Harper over Machado) as well, but the bottom line is that #1 picks fail all the time. 

Punting on entire seasons to try to end up with the #1 pick instead of the #3-5 pick is insulting to the fans and probably isn't great for the development of the players on the Major League roster who are trying to win despite the wishes of management.

If you're a GM and you get a #3-#5 pick and you think you're not "punting", you're delusional.  

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1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

If you're a GM and you get a #3-#5 pick and you think you're not "punting", you're delusional.  

I'm totally guessing here but I think that if you historically look at teams picking from 1-5 in the MLB draft one of them probably thought they were a contender going into the prior season.

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If we had at least one new guy in the running for ROY, Means avoids the looming sophomore slump, and Cobb comes back from injury and pitches decent then I’ll be happy. Of course I could list a bunch others that I’d like to see happen but I feel like those three are the most important to me at this moment in time. Ask me again at the end of March and I’m sure I’ll say something else. 

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20 hours ago, Frobby said:

Let’s start with this: I don’t want to hear about scenarios that are “rosy” because we end up with the no. 1 draft pick.   I’m only talking about scenarios where we win more games than expected.   What could that look like?

- Mountcastle’s debut is like Trey Mancini’s rookie year.

- Mancini and Alberto hold serve compared to 2020.

- Hays provides an .800ish OPS and solid defense in CF.

- Either Richie Martin equals or betters his second half offensive performance, or we find someone who does.     

- Means holds serve.

- Cobb stays relatively healthy and pitches decently.

- Akin is equal to Bundy.   

- We find someone with a pulse who outperforms Hess/Ynoa/Brooks/Straily

- Givens and Castro perform closer to career norms pre-2019.

Honestly, even if most of that happened, I think we’d only win about 65 games.   And obviously, it won’t all happen.



 

 

These to have to happen for anything Rosy. If they do my best case scenario is we lose less than 100.

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2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm totally guessing here but I think that if you historically look at teams picking from 1-5 in the MLB draft one of them probably thought they were a contender going into the prior season.

We thought we were in a contender in 2018.  Even added Cobb, Cashner, and Rasmus.  Then we went out and won 45 games.  I think that falls under delusional.  

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