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Going for the #1 pick

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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't recall anyone thinking Swanson was a sure thing.  A guy that makes the majors sure, I mean a star.

Ok, someone you take with pick number 1-1 instead of a sure thing.

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On 12/28/2019 at 7:20 PM, Camden_yardbird said:

What you said is no different than what I said.

When you break it down it's trying to develop the base of a team through the development of prospects.  Eschew the free agent market.  And hope to hit on draftees and fringe players.

Here is the problem.  That's not how successful small market teams operate.  The Ray's and A's both fill their rosters by churning through major league talent.  They both sign free agents.  They make trades for players who make almost immediate impacts.

The path the Orioles are taking right now, the "Astros Model" is only sustainable by large market teams.  Small market teams that follow this model flame out after a short term possibly competitive few years.

Also, I am not saying free agency is needed for a couple of unnecessary wins, I am saying it is a path for which you can get tradeable commodities that can being back meaningful additions.

My simple point is they were in the free agent market and we all got on their case for not accessing the talent in the international market, and now they are "in" (have yet to see real benefits) on the international market and yet we give them a free pass on not using the free agent market.  The more we fight this cognitive dissonance the better.

I disagree with you.   Nobody’s saying this team will never sign any decent free agents.    We’re just saying now isn’t the time to do it.    It’s better to wait until we have a respectable core of home grown players, and then add to it, as opposed to wasting money on players who can’t move us to contention now.    

I don’t agree with your characterization of how the Rays and A’s were built, or that the Astros model is only sustainable for a few years.    Nobody’s saying we have to do things exactly like the Astros down the road.   But we are starting our rebuild in a manner similar to the Astros because our situation required it.   
 

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On 12/29/2019 at 9:42 AM, 7Mo said:

Lots of people believed that about Mark Appel and Brady Aiken too once upon a time. 

Appel never missed as many bats as his stuff would suggest it might, which is why I wanted the Cubs to take Bryant or Jon Gray over him in the draft that year.  Thankfully the Astros made the decision for them.

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People need to realize too that we have no other choice than to do this.  

NYY- Highest scoring offense in baseball. 

BOS- Still Boston, still around the luxury tax

TB- made the playoffs and have a ton of depth in their system

Tor- Littered with young bats, they’ve also spent a little this offseason. 

What the heck would we do if we even wanted to compete?  Sign whatever FA couldn’t get a deal somewhere else?  We could’ve kept Villar and Bundy. Signed Castellanos, Will Harris, and insert $10+ SP. Trade our prospects. For what?  To compete with Toronto for fourth place?

We have the #2 pick in next June’s draft. Likely missing out on SS Martin. We won’t be making that mistake again. 

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