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wildcard

The team I will be watching in 2020

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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

NO ONE DOES.

NO TEAM DOES THIS.

 

Really,  You mean like no team doesn't call up their International League Player of the Year in September?

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3 hours ago, wildcard said:

First Base/DH -  Ryan Mountcastle.  Since the O's will have Santander, Hays and Diaz is the majors when they contend there is little reason to put Mountcastle in left field for a year.   He should refined his defense at 1B.  He begin 2020 at Norfolk and is promoted to he majors  a month later. 

Shortstop - Richie Martin  - I don't know if he has the bat to be successful in the majors but I like his defense.  Defensive metric suck, so I throw them out the window.   I think he plays all season at Norfolk   He may even play a month at 2021 at  AAA.  If he hits he is in the majors after that.

Left Field - Anthony Santander - With  the O's.

Center Field - Austin Hays-  With the O's.

Right Field - Yusniel  Diaz - Plays all season with Norfolk.   Is promoted to the O's one month into the 2021 season.

DH/1B  -  Trey Mancini -  He will play right field for the O's in 2020. But he will be 1B/DH  a month into the 2021 season.

John Means- With the O's.

 

Your post assumes a whole lot of straight line progression and no changes or surprises. I doubt that's ever happened with any organization.

There's a good chance Mancini and Means are dealt for prospects soon between now and July. 

Your conclusion about Mountcastle is based on other players. I disagree with that. Mountcastle will play at the most valuable position that he can play well, meaning a left fielder is more valuable than a first baseman. In other words, the O's won't say....well, even though Mountcastle is a better overall player as a left fielder than Santander, since we already have Santander there, we have to find an open spot for Mountcastle. 

I think they'll do the opposite. Mountcastle will play at the most valuable position he's able to play and the other guy will move. 

Richie Martin's destination will depend on whether the O's bring in someone between now and opening day who is better able to handle short. I happen to like Martin but I doubt anyone views him as a long term fixture. He's patching an obvious hole until someone else provides a better patch. And I don't see any circumstance where he would be held back in AAA in '21 to manipulate service time. He's not the profile for that in any way. 

And I believe in Diaz but he's anything but a sure thing and most definitely not a sure thing within the next year. 

As an example, 365 days ago, would you have made the same predictions about Martin, Santander, Diaz, Means, et al, that you do today? Things change. For better and for worse. 

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3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Really,  You mean like no team doesn't call up their International League Player of the Year in September?

At least Mountcastle is a top 100 prospect.  You are talking about guys that aren't in the top 250   

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12 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Your post assumes a whole lot of straight line progression and no changes or surprises. I doubt that's ever happened with any organization.

There's a good chance Mancini and Means are dealt for prospects soon between now and July. 

Your conclusion about Mountcastle is based on other players. I disagree with that. Mountcastle will play at the most valuable position that he can play well, meaning a left fielder is more valuable than a first baseman. In other words, the O's won't say....well, even though Mountcastle is a better overall player as a left fielder than Santander, since we already have Santander there, we have to find an open spot for Mountcastle. 

I think they'll do the opposite. Mountcastle will play at the most valuable position he's able to play and the other guy will move. 

Richie Martin's destination will depend on whether the O's bring in someone between now and opening day who is better able to handle short. I happen to like Martin but I doubt anyone views him as a long term fixture. He's patching an obvious hole until someone else provides a better patch. And I don't see any circumstance where he would be held back in AAA in '21 to manipulate service time. He's not the profile for that in any way. 

And I believe in Diaz but he's anything but a sure thing and most definitely not a sure thing within the next year. 

As an example, 365 days ago, would you have made the same predictions about Martin, Santander, Diaz, Means, et al, that you do today? Things change. For better and for worse. 

Elias is not trading Means.  He is cheap,  he as good last year. and he eats innings.  A trade is not happening for Means this year.

Every rating I have seen on Mountcaslte say he is slow.   The outfield is probably not the best place for his skills.   1B is probably his best shot at playing a defensive position that may be positive to good along with his plus bat.

Not prospect is a sure thing.   Any of them can step in a hole and break a leg or be like  Mullins and not be able to hit a major league break pitch.  It happens.

You cut off the end on my post that says "This is if all goes well, which it will not."

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9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

At least Mountcastle is a top 100 prospect.  You are talking about guys that aren't in the top 250   

Yet

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12 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The O's are putting more technology, analysis and coaching into player development then we have every seen before.  I am hoping it actually helps players develop to higher levels of performance.

Agreed.

But don't players develop on different time frames? Isn't it reasonable to understand that some guys have more development needed and some guys less? 

I don't think it works to say "this guy had 12 AA starts in '19 so he'll be promoted to the O's on August 11, 2020". They'll be promoted when they've mastered changes and improvements as well as possible. Some will come quicker, some slower and some not at all. And some will get hurt. And some will hit a wall. 

I'd love to see Toby Welk rocket through the minors. I love that guy. But he wouldn't be first guy to tear it up in the low levels only to hit a wall at AA or AAA. I really hope he doesn't. But you never know, even with huge advances in player development. 

Even the great astros system had to go buy a right fielder cause they couldn't develop one. And now they'd be happy to give Reddick away but no one will take him. 

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4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Elias is not trading Means.  He is cheap,  he as good last year. and he eats innings.  A trade is not happening for Means this year.

Every rating I have seen on Mountcaslte say he is slow.   The outfield is probably not the best place for his skills.   1B is probably his best shot at playing a defensive position that may be positive to good along with his plus bat.

Not prospect is a sure thing.   Any of them can step in a hole and break a leg or be like  Mullins and not be able to hit a major league break pitch.  It happens.

You cut off the end on my post that says "This is if all goes well, which it will not."

There are surprises, every year, good and bad, in every organization. 

2 years ago, would you have bet on Forrest Whitley or John Means? The yankees, with all their technology and brain power, wouldn't complete a trade with the Pirates for Gerrit Cole because they didn't believe he'd become what he has. Now look what they've paid to get him. 

 

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I'm hoping for second half Baysox with Rutschman and Rodriguez joining Hall there.

With all due respect to the 4-15 section of the list, a next good team milestone will be getting those three together.

The Santander/Hays/Diaz/Mountcastle basket is akin to the Akin/Baumann/Kremer/Lowther basket - we won't go 8-for-8 but hopefully end up with 5-6 glue guys and not just a couple.  Then perhaps we earn a superstar's serious attention in 2-3 years to crescendo.  

There's a 99th percentile outcome where in mid-2022 the rotation is Rodriguez/Hall/Hancock/Rocker and Rutschman has a $200M companion in the heart of the lineup.  The team's depth fills in well or poorly with as many of the glue guys as the high minors group ends up on.

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1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Yet

Neither will have that chance, if they are good enough - they will pitch in Baltimore this year. 

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1 hour ago, weams said:

Any team would be thrilled to develop a Ben McDonald.

Any team would be thrilled to develop a Sidney Ponson as well. 13 rWAR through 6 seasons and traded for a bunch of prospects to a contender.

Not to mention Zack Britton, Jake Arrieta, Brian Roberts, Jerry Hairston, Zach Davies, Josh Hader, BJ Ryan, Arthur Rhodes, Jose Mesa, Armando Benitez, Chris Hoiles, ...

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8 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Any team would be thrilled to develop a Sidney Ponson as well. 13 rWAR through 6 seasons and traded for a bunch of prospects to a contender.

Not to mention Zack Britton, Jake Arrieta, Brian Roberts, Jerry Hairston, Zach Davies, Josh Hader, BJ Ryan, Arthur Rhodes, Jose Mesa, Armando Benitez, Chris Hoiles, ...

Hoiles was in AA when we traded Fred Lynn for him.

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8 minutes ago, weams said:

Neither will have that chance, if they are good enough - they will pitch in Baltimore this year. 

Yep - part of what makes farm rankings so squishy and arbitrary.  That Austin Hays didn't play Game 162 doesn't change him at all, but it may bump our org rank some towards upper middle class.

In 2020 we'll have does Yusniel get 130 AB's and Baumann/Kremer 50 innings?  Baumann's initial assignment will give a clue.

To the extent I feel like 2020 has a little upside beyond 2019 at the major league level, it's in interesting pitchers making a bigger percentage of the starts.  This year we may nudge past the Wojo-style we need to purchase another team's AAA guy to make it through the year.

Next offseason probably figures to be Orioles Farm Peak, as 2020 pick 1-2 should profile ahead of Mountcastle, but then after that 2021 pick 1-X has Rutschman's shoes to fill.

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