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Frobby

The dichotomy in my head

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On 12/31/2019 at 5:50 PM, Philip said:

We are picking second this July, I would be very surprised-and disappointed-if we pick in the top five in 2021, but regardless, unless it is a very thin draft, the difference between one and five, or between three and eight, while meaningful, is probably not going to change our trajectory.

I won’t be the least bit surprised if we finish in the bottom five with this pitching staff and our Not Ready For Primetime offense. 

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7 minutes ago, InsideCoroner said:

I won’t be the least bit surprised if we finish in the bottom five with this pitching staff and our Not Ready For Primetime offense. 

I'll be very disappointed if we don't pick in the top five next year. 

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1 minute ago, weams said:

I'll be very disappointed if we don't pick in the top five next year. 

It will be bad for the league if they have five teams worse than the 2020 O's.

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33 minutes ago, weams said:

I'll be very disappointed if we don't pick in the top five next year. 

I don’t know about disappointed, but I’ll certainly be surprised.    Shocked, in fact.   

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1 hour ago, InsideCoroner said:

I won’t be the least bit surprised if we finish in the bottom five with this pitching staff and our Not Ready For Primetime offense. 

I don’t think I am being overly optimistic, but I will be.

we shall see.

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2 hours ago, weams said:

I'll be very disappointed if we don't pick in the top five next year. 

I don't understand that sentiment.  If they finish better that means players are playing better than expected.  That is good.  Elias whiffed on two #1 overalls.  The Orioles picked guys like Hobgood, Matusz and Adam Loewen in the top 5.  Ripken, Murray, Markakis, Roberts, Adam Jones, and Mussina were not picked in the top 5.  

I would rather have a 70 win team than a top 5 pick.  

Also are you going to the games rooting for the other team?

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Just now, atomic said:

I don't understand that sentiment.  If they finish better that means players are playing better than expected.  That is good.  Elias whiffed on two #1 overalls.  The Orioles picked guys like Hobgood, Matusz and Adam Loewen in the top 5.  Ripken, Murray, Markakis, Roberts, and Mussina were not picked in the top 5.  

I would rather have a 70 win team than a top 5 pick.  

Also are you going to the games rooting for the other team?

Picking a guy that ended up have a genetic abnormality that they had no way to detect is not whiffing.

Do the O's get points off for picking Machado and his wonky knees?

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26 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Picking a guy that ended up have a genetic abnormality that they had no way to detect is not whiffing.

Do the O's get points off for picking Machado and his wonky knees?

Like I have told you many of time the Astro's upped their offer at the deadline. So they  made significant effort to sign him even after finding out about his genetic disorder.

But that is all immaterial in regards to my point.  They made two #1 overall picks that most likely will never make the majors.  So you can throw two seasons and end up with nothing to show for it. 

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3 minutes ago, atomic said:

Like I have told you many of time the Astro's upped their offer at the deadline. So they  made significant effort to sign him even after finding out about his genetic disorder.

But that is all immaterial in regards to my point.  They made two #1 overall picks that most likely will never make the majors.  So you can throw two seasons and end up with nothing to show for it. 

They also had the first pick in every round after the first.  How did those picks work?  Honest question, I haven't looked and don't pretend to know much about other teams picks.  But, I suspect that having the first pick in every round have value even when pick 1-1 doesn't work out.

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22 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

They also had the first pick in every round after the first.  How did those picks work?  Honest question, I haven't looked and don't pretend to know much about other teams picks.  But, I suspect that having the first pick in every round have value even when pick 1-1 doesn't work out.

If you exclude #1 picks the Orioles drafted better than the Astros during Elias reign.

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20 hours ago, atomic said:

Like I have told you many of time the Astro's upped their offer at the deadline. So they  made significant effort to sign him even after finding out about his genetic disorder.

But that is all immaterial in regards to my point.  They made two #1 overall picks that most likely will never make the majors.  So you can throw two seasons and end up with nothing to show for it. 

You always skip the part where the Astros got a comp pick for not signing Aiken and picked Alex Bregman.    I’d say that worked out well.     

Anyway, nobody can dispute that (1) sometimes top picks don’t work out, (2) sometimes you can blow a top pick and still succeed overall, and (3) you’d still rather have a top pick than not have it, when it comes to building your franchise.     I don’t see that any of those statements can be controversial.     
 

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

You always skip the part where the Astros got a comp pick for not signing Aiken and picked Alex Bregman.    I’d say that worked out well.     

Anyway, nobody can dispute that (1) sometimes top picks don’t work out, (2) sometimes you can blow a top pick and still succeed overall, and (3) you’d still rather have a top pick than not have it, when it comes to building your franchise.     I don’t see that any of those statements can be controversial.     
 

I didn't skip it.  Aiken didn't sign. They offered him $5 million dollars which was more than Correa's bonus.  They got extremely lucky that their bad pick didn't sign with them.  And they blew two top #1 overall picks.  So two whole seasons of tanking could be potentially provide no return. The whole tanking thing is stupid in baseball. 

Also I am not sure why people continue to spread the false narrative that the Astros drafted Aiken and then offered him the minimum after finding out he had arm issues.  I am not sure what you have to gain by believing something that isn't in anyway true. 

And actually I would prefer to draft last in the first round than first. The Yankees and Dodgers don't seem to have problems drafting at the end of the first round. 

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16 minutes ago, atomic said:

And actually I would prefer to draft last in the first round than first. The Yankees and Dodgers don't seem to have problems drafting at the end of the first round. 

This is why people don't take you seriously.

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