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interloper

My prediction for how the Davis saga ends

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12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't agree with your reasoning.  I don't think injury insurance and the chances of a drug suspension factor into team's decisions in a meaningful way.  If they did the Angels wouldn't have paid to get rid of Josh Hamilton.  He was the most likely player to be hit with a drug suspension since Steve Howe.

Was he not in the last year of his deal? Says they only were on the hook for 26.4.  You rarely see anyone cut ties with more than 1 year left.  (Jose Reyes and his Domestic Abuse + Pablo Sandoval)

We agree in it does not play a factor in them playing out the entire length of the deal. Once they reach that final year.(Which is what I alluded to i thought?)

 

Edit: Admit the reasoning could be wrong, but not cutting ties before the final year has been rather true

Edited by Scalious

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6 hours ago, interloper said:

 

The failed contract of Chris Davis is one of, if not the, most complicated failed contracts that currently exists in the game today. Not only that, it's one of the most historically bad contracts the game has ever seen. This fact coupled with the Angelos' stance on contracts in general, the fact that the team is in no hurry to win games at present, and perhaps that it was Peter's last big deal all conspires into a potent mixture that has kept Chris Davis on the roster. Obviously, this sucks. It makes the Angelos brothers look bad, it makes Elias seem weaker, and it makes it seem like Peter still has a good deal of pull behind the scenes. Whether or not all or any of that is true, we will never truly know. Just my opinion on it: I tend to separate the Davis contract from anything else taking place. It's special. It's an unique anomaly not just for the Orioles but for the game overall. It's complicated.

And yet, it's not, from a purely roster/financial standpoint, right? You just eat the sunk cost and move on. While that's not happened yet, I don't necessarily fault the Angelos brothers or Elias on it at this time. Elias and Co. are constructing the scaffolding of the rebuild around Chris Davis. Despite him. He doesn't really matter for the moment. He can be easily cordoned off while the new ownership group supports the front office in making strides in development, international scouting, analytics, and drafting.

There's a case to be made that Davis could fulfill his entire contract through 2022. After all, that's only 2 more years after this season. Even with the arrival of Ryan Mountcastle expected this year, the team could (and probably will) trade Trey Mancini. They could further free up a spot by moving on from Renato Nunez. There are no other slugger 1B/DH prospects knocking on the door other than Mountcastle. If the Orioles aren't as close to being a decent club by 2022 as we hope - and they very well may not be - there's a chance Davis is indeed never released prior to the end of his contract. 

But I don't think that happens. What follows is my prediction of how this whole thing eventually plays out:

  1. Chris Davis has reportedly worked on his approach starting at the end of the season during his lengthy stint on the bench and then continued that work this offseason. Whether or not you believe in Davis' offseason work ethic (I'm iffy on it myself) is secondary here. Elias has confirmed at least that he will be in spring training, that he's "on the team", and that Elias "takes his contract seriously". To me, that means we're getting at minimum another two months of the regular season to see what, if any, improvements Davis has been made.
  2. The next step in my prediction assumes that it's clear by June that Davis has not improved. What follows is a benching similar to what we saw in 2019. Davis makes the occasional start while ceding the majority of time to Mountcastle, who I expect to be up by this time, and others. Hopefully, he avoids the frustration that boiled over last year into a dugout confrontation with Hyde, and remains the good dugout presence for younger guys that he is, by all accounts. In fact, I predict he DOES avoid those frustrations due to the fact that he begins to really see the writing on the wall.
  3. Davis weathers another year of articles, reporter questions, Hyde/Elias dodgy defenses, booing, and criticism and finishes the 2020 season on the active roster. But it's different this time. He's starting to concede that his time in the game and on the Orioles is up. He's a sharp guy and he knows the team has to move on if they're going to get better. They need the roster space, and they need productive hitters. He wants the Orioles to be good, and after a third straight year of batting under .200, he knows the right thing to do is step aside.
  4. I don't believe Davis will force the Orioles hand on a release once he truly believes he just doesn't have it anymore. That said, nor do I think he outright retires out of the good of his heart for the ownership group - that wouldn't look great to the Union, and really, he's earned that right. 
  5. So.. what, then? I predict Davis will meet with ownership, Elias, and Boras and they'll come to an arrangement as unique as the Chris Davis problem itself. He is released. The remainder of Davis' contract (2 years, $34 million) will get restructured or deferred in some way that is better for the Orioles' financial books. The previously deferred portion of his contract remains as is. A decent portion of his remaining salary will be used by him in conjunction with the Orioles to create a charitable fund of some sort that focuses on child health or similar efforts Davis is known to support. Or perhaps it gets funneled into the current Orioles Charitable Fund (https://www.mlb.com/orioles/community/charitable-fund).
  6. Davis then transitions to a role within the Orioles "front office" roughly defined as a community ambassador and charity rep. He'll fall under the "Special Advisors and Community Ambassadors" section of the front office (https://www.mlb.com/orioles/team/front-office) where Brian Roberts, Boog Powell, Eddie Murray, and Brooks Robinson live. He'll make appearance at charities, assist current players with their charitable efforts, and remain an active and visible participant as it pertains to Orioles philanthropy. He's a fun guy (or was when he was productive) and I think he'll use some of that humor and approachability he was known for to good effect in this area. 
  7. And that's it. The Orioles get him off the roster after 2020, but instead of being a sad tale, they reach an agreement that both can feel good about. Davis/Boras still get the majority of what they're owed, but in a way that makes things easier on the Orioles going forward (something I think Davis does care about), while also continuing Davis' outstanding charitable legacy. He remains a part of something with the Orioles, and both he and the Orioles get out of this with some great PR puff pieces. They turn a bad (and often downright sad) situation into something positive for everyone, and those less fortunate will benefit in a big way. It will be one of the game's most significant charitable efforts, something the Orioles already have a great track record with. And Davis gets to control his legacy in the game by ending it with something positive. He'll never shake the "historically bad contract" thing, but he can feel good about meeting that head-on with "historically large charitable effort". Be visible, get in front of cameras and talk openly about it, have a press conference with Elias and the owners, and then put all that energy and money into something bigger and better than baseball. I think he will. 

 

 

This is the most reasonable, and in many ways, the best case scenario when taking into consideration all parties (outside of Davis suddenly becoming the all star slugger he used to be). I'm just not sure it is the most likely. It is, however, just likely enough that we can cross our fingers and hope it becomes reality.

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1 minute ago, Scalious said:

Was he not in the last year of his deal? Says they only were on the hook for 26.4.  You rarely see anyone cut ties with more than 1 year left.  (Jose Reyes and his Domestic Abuse + Pablo Sandoval) We agree in it does not play a factor in them playing out the entire length of the deal. Once they reach that final year.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/12775283/josh-hamilton-traded-los-angeles-angels-texas-rangers

Quote

Less than halfway through a five-year, $125 million contract, Hamilton was traded Monday by the Angels to their American League West rival for a player to be named or cash. The Angels and owner Arte Moreno, wanting to be rid of Hamilton, agreed to pay most of the remaining $80 million Hamilton is owed under the contract, which runs through 2017.

I've don't recall any bad contract relief coming via a suspension or insurance, not unless you want to count ARod and I think we can agree that was a peculiar situation.

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Meh, it doesn't need to be that complicated.  Just cut him.

Its great that he lead the league in homers twice, which is pretty darn elite company, and was part of three playoff teams. But I don't think he deserves an organizational position based on that alone.  If you want to pick anyone from that period, I'd probably pick Adam Jones.   I'd even consider Tillman, Britton, even Weiters before Davis.

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3 minutes ago, GuidoSarducci said:

Meh, it doesn't need to be that complicated.  Just cut him.

Its great that he lead the league in homers twice, which is pretty darn elite company, and was part of three playoff teams. But I don't think he deserves an organizational position based on that alone.  If you want to pick anyone from that period, I'd probably pick Adam Jones.   I'd even consider Tillman, Britton, even Weiters before Davis.

That’s an interesting question - if you could pick a player to be our “fan ambassador” from the 2010’s, who would it be?    Adam Jones is the obvious answer, but after him, who would be your pick?   Seems to me the obvious candidates would be (in no particular order) Davis, Wieters, Hardy, Schoop, Markakis, Tillman and Britton.   I’m leaving Manny out of this since he won’t be retired for another decade and will have spent the majority of his career elsewhere.    

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8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That’s an interesting question - if you could pick a player to be our “fan ambassador” from the 2010’s, who would it be?    Adam Jones is the obvious answer, but after him, who would be your pick?   Seems to me the obvious candidates would be (in no particular order) Davis, Wieters, Hardy, Schoop, Markakis, Tillman and Britton.   I’m leaving Manny out of this since he won’t be retired for another decade and will have spent the majority of his career elsewhere.    

Davis does nothing for me. I'd just as soon see Delmon Young as our fan ambassador. 

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I think Crusher comes roaring back and wins MLB Comeback Player of the Year hitting 45-50 homers and knocking in over 100.  

Then what do you do?   

 

Seriously, if that happens, I win the most unlikely prediction coming true award for all-time.  

  I really am not interested in the partial quasi club ambassador role, and I would just prefer a clean break....eat the cost, end the contract, period.  

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6 hours ago, interloper said:

I think it's fair to say the PED thing is kind of water under the bridge for most fans considering we know exactly what the substance was and he owned up to it. Who cares at this point?

Just paying him to go away is most likely what will end up happening. But how is it not preferable to use a lot of that money to start something charitable in conjunction with the Orioles? 

We know what he got popped for.  If you believe that was the only thing he was using, I've got some swamp land in Florida at a good price.  I suggested they O's might be able to save a little bit of money and Chris Davis might be able to save himself the further embarrassment of being one of the worst players of all time by coming to some kind of buyout agreement.   I stated that months and months ago and your deferred payment idea is along the same lines.   I think some kind of compromise happens during this season.   

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3 hours ago, GuidoSarducci said:

Meh, it doesn't need to be that complicated.  Just cut him.

Its great that he lead the league in homers twice, which is pretty darn elite company, and was part of three playoff teams. But I don't think he deserves an organizational position based on that alone.  If you want to pick anyone from that period, I'd probably pick Adam Jones.   I'd even consider Tillman, Britton, even Weiters before Davis.

JJ Hardy as an infield instructor.

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3 hours ago, Frobby said:

That’s an interesting question - if you could pick a player to be our “fan ambassador” from the 2010’s, who would it be?    Adam Jones is the obvious answer, but after him, who would be your pick?   Seems to me the obvious candidates would be (in no particular order) Davis, Wieters, Hardy, Schoop, Markakis, Tillman and Britton.   I’m leaving Manny out of this since he won’t be retired for another decade and will have spent the majority of his career elsewhere.    

Caleb Joseph would want the job.  I don't know if the others would.  

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7 hours ago, El Gordo said:

He'll be gone when his roster spot blocks a promising young player,

That’ll most likely be his 40 man spot before his 26 man spot. I think we’re going to have to legit add 10ish players to the 40 man in November to protect from the Rule 5. 

My prediction... October 2020. The WS/playoffs will be going on. The Ravens will be in full swing.  NBA/NHL/NCAA season kick offs.  Election 2020. It’ll be the perfect time for the O’s to bury the story. Do it on a Friday evening and it won’t even be mentioned on Monday. 

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11 hours ago, tntoriole said:

I think Crusher comes roaring back and wins MLB Comeback Player of the Year hitting 45-50 homers and knocking in over 100.  

Then what do you do?   

 

Seriously, if that happens, I win the most unlikely prediction coming true award for all-time.  

  I really am not interested in the partial quasi club ambassador role, and I would just prefer a clean break....eat the cost, end the contract, period.  

It's unfortunate because last year he had a couple of stretches where he looked like he could be turning it around.  And then went right back to being terrible.

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