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AZRon

Per Capita Team Attendance

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54 minutes ago, AZRon said:

OK -- I updated the opening post to this thread - See opening post displaying the mileage to the nearest opponent's stadium.

Let me know if this additional information supports any of your opinions.

 

I don’t know if I have opinions, but the data is interesting.    A few points:

1.   The size of the stadium places a constraint on how high per capita attendance can go.    Dodger Stadium is basically at full capacity and yet per capita attendance there is “only” .30.    Who knows what it would be if they could sell an unlimited number of tickets?

2.   I’m sure ticket prices are a factor.   

3.   Thanks for adding the data about closest teams.    As I said, this only tells part of the geographic story, but it’s still useful information.   

4.    I still can’t get over Milwaukee.   

 

 

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17 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think it would be interesting to add a column showing the distance to the closest other team.     Even that wouldn’t really capture the geographic effect though.   Baltimore is really hemmed in between DC and Philly.    St. Louis is at least 300 miles from any other team in all directions.   

How much does that really impact attendance?  My guess is that if you drew a heatmap of a typical game's fans the distance traveled would fall off exponentially or logarithmically.  Mostly.  Obviously you don't have 10 times more fans from a half mile away as you do from five miles away.  But once you get out a certain distance.  You probably would have 10 times as many people from within 10 miles of the stadium as you would 100 miles out.

If the Phillies didn't exist the Orioles would capture less than 1000 fans a game from that market.  Again, just guessing.  But there's no way Kansas City and Chicago fans would regularly drive to St. Louis to see the Cards in great numbers even if none of their teams existed.

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My goodness, how is MLB not talking about relocating the Marlins? 

Team Metropolitan Area 2018 Estimated Population1 2019 Attendance2 Attendance Per Capita Mileage to Nearest Different MLB Stadium3
         
Miami (MIA) 6.20 M .81 M 0.13 266

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2 hours ago, Going Underground said:

About 250 miles to Kansas City and 300 to Chicago.

 

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My having spent a midsummer week in and around Vancouver, this map vastly underestimates Blue Jays fandom throughout Canada. Bars were packed for a rando (10AM start!) Sunday Jays game 2,000 miles away, and there didn't seem to be any enthusiasm for the Mariners (only 150 miles). All of Canada loves the Jays, and this map cares not one whit.

EDIT: I see now I've confused previous mention of the StubHub fandom map with this driving distance map. Too many 10AM Molsons I guess.

Edited by beervendor
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14 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

How much does that really impact attendance?  My guess is that if you drew a heatmap of a typical game's fans the distance traveled would fall off exponentially or logarithmically.  Mostly.  Obviously you don't have 10 times more fans from a half mile away as you do from five miles away.  But once you get out a certain distance.  You probably would have 10 times as many people from within 10 miles of the stadium as you would 100 miles out.

If the Phillies didn't exist the Orioles would capture less than 1000 fans a game from that market.  Again, just guessing.  But there's no way Kansas City and Chicago fans would regularly drive to St. Louis to see the Cards in great numbers even if none of their teams existed.

I agree with you generally.    I do think it may vary a bit by region, though.    People who live in less densely populated areas are used to driving long distances.     I do think St. Louis in particular had a reputation of drawing from a broader base than most teams.    

I wish the map provided by Seat Geek actually showed how many tickets were sold in each county.    They obviously have that information, though only limited to the tickets sold on their site.    
 

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On Milwaukee, I wonder if its metro area is deemed far flung enough to get Racine and Kenosha, and if some of the northernmost Illinois counties colored Cubs don't also have a healthy subsection of Brewers fans.  That is an impressive outlier in the chart!

It's kind of easy to imagine Chicago's Metro Area reach eclipsing Milwaukee's in the borderlands, ala DC/Philadelphia squishing Baltimore.  Friends and family anywhere between DC and Boston I am fond of joking we all live in the Eastern North America mega city.  It's the normal I grew up in but was a little bit of a revelation when I learned its one of the most densely populated regions on Earth.

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3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t know if I have opinions, but the data is interesting.    A few points:

1.   The size of the stadium places a constraint on how high per capita attendance can go.    Dodger Stadium is basically at full capacity and yet per capita attendance there is “only” .30.    Who knows what it would be if they could sell an unlimited number of tickets?

2.   I’m sure ticket prices are a factor.   

3.   Thanks for adding the data about closest teams.    As I said, this only tells part of the geographic story, but it’s still useful information.   

4.    I still can’t get over Milwaukee.   

 

 

Here is the average ticket price for all teams in 2019:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/193673/average-ticket-price-in-the-mlb-by-team/

 

https://twinstrivia.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019-TMR-FCI.pdf

 

Also fan index which is  accurate but use some low kid prices for certain teams including the Orioles. $1.50 hot dogs and soda.  Do the orioles really have a $4.00 12 oz beer? Also average ticket price changes depending on method used. In the one Orioles are ninth lowest and in the FCI they are 15th lowest.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/202611/fan-cost-index-of-the-major-league-baseball/

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23 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

Here is the average ticket price for all teams in 2019:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/193673/average-ticket-price-in-the-mlb-by-team/

 

https://twinstrivia.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019-TMR-FCI.pdf

 

Also fan index which is  accurate but use some low kid prices for certain teams including the Orioles. $1.50 hot dogs and soda.  Do the orioles really have a $4.00 12 oz beer?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/202611/fan-cost-index-of-the-major-league-baseball/

Thanks.   So the Brewers aren’t that cheap ($71 average ticket).     I find it shocking that the Mets have the cheapest ticket prices ($37, less than 1/3 the Yankees’ average).     

Edit: that statista data on ticket prices is way off base, so never mind what I wrote above.   That Twins site is much more accurate.    Even so, they don’t tell you how many of the tickets are so-called premium tickets.     
 

 

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3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Thanks.   So the Brewers aren’t that cheap ($71 average ticket).     I find it shocking that the Mets have the cheapest ticket prices ($37, less than 1/3 the Yankees’ average).     

i think it is all in the method they use to get to average price. The Mets  are one in the one survey  but  around 10th lowest in the FCI one.

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8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Thanks.   So the Brewers aren’t that cheap ($71 average ticket).     I find it shocking that the Mets have the cheapest ticket prices ($37, less than 1/3 the Yankees’ average).     

The FCI method is this for tickets:

Average ticket price represents a weighted average of season ticket prices for general seating categories. This is determined by factoring the full season ticket cost for each category as a percentage of the total number of seats in each venue. This takes into account variable pricing. Premium seating (tickets that come with at least one added amenity or classified by team as premium) are not included in the survey to calculate average ticket price. Average Premium Ticket prices are listed separately. Luxury suites are also excluded. Season ticket pricing is used for any team that offers some or all tickets at lower prices for customers who buy season seats. When a seat category is not offered as a season ticket, we use the weighted average price sold by the team. Teams have a say in what seats are considered general or premium.

 

https://twinstrivia.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019-TMR-FCI.pdf

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I agree with you generally.    I do think it may vary a bit by region, though.    People who live in less densely populated areas are used to driving long distances.     I do think St. Louis in particular had a reputation of drawing from a broader base than most teams.    

I wish the map provided by Seat Geek actually showed how many tickets were sold in each county.    They obviously have that information, though only limited to the tickets sold on their site.    
 

I think we have had this conversation before.  The Nats "win" the Roanoke, Virginia area.  But how many people from Roanoke go to an average Nats game?  My guess is three.  People don't drive four hours to a MLB game with any consistency.

Back in the day I used to go to every Virginia Tech football game.  But I was young and weird and dumb and there were never games on Sunday-Wednesday, or Friday. 95% were on Saturdays.

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2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think we have had this conversation before.  The Nats "win" the Roanoke, Virginia area.  But how many people from Roanoke go to an average Nats game?  My guess is three.  People don't drive four hours to a MLB game with any consistency.

I agree with you, I’m just saying that driving long distances to go to games may be more common in some areas than others. I have no evidence to back that up other than a statement made to me by my law school roommate from Kansas 40 years ago who told me that in the Midwest people thought nothing of driving 50 miles for things nobody on the coasts would go ten miles for.   

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Having grown up in West Texas and having lived both there and on the East Coast as an adult, mileage is the wrong measure.  Where I grew up, 50 miles is a 45 minute drive without much stress.  Around the DC beltway, 45 minutes gets maybe 10 miles at rush hour.  Our commute to Orioles games is between 2-3 stressful hours for about 50 miles.  We do it 30+ times per year, but that would be the equivalent of 150 miles in Texas.

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1 hour ago, OrioleDog said:

On Milwaukee, I wonder if its metro area is deemed far flung enough to get Racine and Kenosha, and if some of the northernmost Illinois counties colored Cubs don't also have a healthy subsection of Brewers fans.  That is an impressive outlier in the chart!

It's kind of easy to imagine Chicago's Metro Area reach eclipsing Milwaukee's in the borderlands, ala DC/Philadelphia squishing Baltimore.  Friends and family anywhere between DC and Boston I am fond of joking we all live in the Eastern North America mega city.  It's the normal I grew up in but was a little bit of a revelation when I learned its one of the most densely populated regions on Earth.

Brewers rise to popularity is all Mark Attanasio and his aggressive marketing. You can go anywhere in the state and find some partnership with brewers promotion. Some that lead to tickets.

Most of the things to do in Wisconsin are outdoors and require driving.  You are going to bored off your butt if you rely on entertaining yourself with things that are within walking distance or a cheap cap ride unless you live in downtown Madison. Which is way more expensive then just living on the outskirts and paying for gas.

I live in the Madison area and driving to a brewers game is a pretty common thing. Even if you are not much of a baseball fan, because it's about the atmosphere.

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5 minutes ago, TAMC said:

Having grown up in West Texas and having lived both there and on the East Coast as an adult, mileage is the wrong measure.  Where I grew up, 50 miles is a 45 minute drive without much stress.  Around the DC beltway, 45 minutes gets maybe 10 miles at rush hour.  Our commute to Orioles games is between 2-3 stressful hours for about 50 miles.  We do it 30+ times per year, but that would be the equivalent of 150 miles in Texas.

Correct. Less metro areas means less traffic congestion. 

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