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Orioles ROY Mountcastle vs Hays/Harvey

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12 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

That's great but I was talking about Mountcastle.

Mountcastle is great. He's going to make a huge impact.

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"Mountcastle has a beautiful right handed swing. He has the rare combination of premium bat speed and natural loft. I think he’s still an immature hitter, falling behind needlessly, giving away ABs. That hasn’t stopped him from being well above league average despite being young for the level. He’s going to be better than people think in LF and there is some sneaky ceiling if his approach develops."

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Here's a Hays tidbit that seems promising.

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/upgrading-a-deserved-barrel/

Sifting through various sorts here, Hays was 2nd tightest in Launch Angle standard deviation, which I think is good generally.  He also only got 5.5% barrels when this particular formula expected 10.6% making him fourth unluckiest.  It was a pretty good month anyway.

Entering 2020 my biggest Hays question is "Are you *really* a CF?", but it's nice to see a hint the bat may be potent enough to play better in a corner even if he isn't.

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On 1/10/2020 at 1:24 PM, Frobby said:

Vlad Jr. is a horrible defender, but I wouldn’t exactly write him off.   He was worth 2.1 rWAR in 123 games.    Not bad at all for a 20-year old rookie.     And it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he just exploded in 2020.

I think picking Mountcastle over Hays is defensible, though that wasn’t my choice.    In two small samples, Hays has put up OPS of .555 and .947.   So which is he?   Probably neither, and who knows exactly where he’ll fall.    I also want too see more of him defensively, as some scouts previously thought he was really a corner OF, not a CF.    He looked really good out there in September, but 15 games isn’t a good basis for judgment.    I am optimistic about Hays on both sides of the ball, but there’s still plenty of uncertainty how good he’ll be despite his nice showing last fall.

By exploded, do you mean he could have a breakout year, or are we looking at an Augustus Gloop type situation here?

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21 minutes ago, SteveA said:

By exploded, do you mean he could have a breakout year, or are we looking at an Augustus Gloop type situation here?

First one, then the other?

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It's not too far fetched to think Akin could step in and have a "where did that come from?" season like John Means. 

I also think Hunter Harvey could step into the closer role and only be thrown out there in favorable situations which would pad his stats, thus making him a better candidate. 

In summary, I just think it will be easier for a pitcher to step up a shine as opposed to our position player options.

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On 1/11/2020 at 10:25 AM, weams said:

"Mountcastle has a beautiful right handed swing. He has the rare combination of premium bat speed and natural loft. I think he’s still an immature hitter, falling behind needlessly, giving away ABs. That hasn’t stopped him from being well above league average despite being young for the level. He’s going to be better than people think in LF and there is some sneaky ceiling if his approach develops."

That's a big IF.   It hasn't changed in 4 years of minor league ball.   We are hoping it improves at the ML level.

 

Devil's advocate warning.    In 2016 in Low A ball he had 25 walks and 95 strikeouts.   3 years later he had 24 walks and 130 strikeouts in AAA.   I don't see a change in approach in the last 3 years.

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14 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

That's a big IF.   It hasn't changed in 4 years of minor league ball.   We are hoping it improves at the ML level.

 

Devil's advocate warning.    In 2016 in Low A ball he had 25 walks and 95 strikeouts.   3 years later he had 24 walks and 130 strikeouts in AAA.   I don't see a change in approach in the last 3 years.

Luke has a different opinion. 

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10 minutes ago, weams said:

Luke has a different opinion. 

Luke thinks Mountcastle has changed his approach in the last 3 years?   I don't remember reading that.

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19 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

That's a big IF.   It hasn't changed in 4 years of minor league ball.   We are hoping it improves at the ML level.

 

Devil's advocate warning.    In 2016 in Low A ball he had 25 walks and 95 strikeouts.   3 years later he had 24 walks and 130 strikeouts in AAA.   I don't see a change in approach in the last 3 years.

He walked a fair amount at the end of last season — 10 walks in August compared to 14 in April-July combined.    Could be a coincidence, but more likely he was told he needed to focus on it.    

I think a lot of players walk less when they are having success with their approach, and don’t really adjust until they experience some failure.    

I don’t think it will be easy for Mountcastle to change what has worked so far, but hopefully he’ll be able to adjust enough to be reasonably successful.    
 


 

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Just now, RZNJ said:

Luke thinks Mountcastle has changed his approach in the last 3 years?   I don't remember reading that.

Luke thinks he will. As opposed to that he hasn't.

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1 minute ago, Frobby said:

He walked a fair amount at the end of last season — 10 walks in August compared to 14 in April-July combined.    Could be a coincidence, but more likely he was told he needed to focus on it.    

I think a lot of players walk less when they are having success with their approach, and don’t really adjust until they experience some failure.    

I don’t think it will be easy for Mountcastle to change what has worked so far, but hopefully he’ll be able to adjust enough to be reasonably successful.    
 


 

Yes.  That was encouraging.   Hopefully a change in approach as he also finished very strong.   Or it could just be a blip just like we see in other players month to month.

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By the way, I noticed that Hays was far more selective last September than he’d been in his previous call-up, even though his intervening minor league numbers in 2018-19 didn’t indicate he had changed his approach much.   SSS, but I think in his interviews last September he mentioned trying to be more selective.  

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Are we talking about patience or having the eye for the K zone? 

If you don't have the eye for where the zone is, being patient isn't going to help you in the long run. You will just put yourself in 2 strike counts for days. When a player doesn't have the eye. You just need to turn them into "selectively aggressive" over just plain aggressive.

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3 minutes ago, Scalious said:

Are we talking about patience or having the eye for the K zone? 

If you don't have the eye for where the zone is, being patient isn't going to help you in the long run. You will just put yourself in 2 strike counts for days. When a player doesn't have the eye. You just need to turn them into "selectively aggressive" over just plain aggressive.

I think we are talking about patience and hoping that Mountcastle possesses the pitch recognition and strike zone recognition already.

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