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MurphDogg

2020 ZIPS Projections are in

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Fangraphs released their ZIPS Projections for the Orioles.

Starting to think the O's might be bad this year, you guys.

No position players at 2 WAR, Mancini at 1.9, Hays at 1.3, Iglesias and Alberto at 1.2.

Means is the only pitcher above 0.8(!) WAR at 1.6.

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That’s the anticipated roster, I am confident we will have guys who do better. Some we haven’t gotten yet, and some who will surprise.

Case in point it is our highest projected pitcher, who wasn’t even on the top 30 list last year.

 

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Mountcastle at .261/.291/.434 for 0.3 WAR with 20 homers over 500+ PAs. His career numbers in the minors are .295/.328/.471, last year at AAA, .312/.344/.527.

I can't see him having a sub-.450 SLG unless they really deaden the ball.

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Looks like they have the O’s collectively at 11-12 WAR, which translates to about 59-60 wins.    Sounds about right to me.   

They don’t like Akin much, that’s for sure.   
 

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12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Looks like they have the O’s collectively at 11-12 WAR, which translates to about 59-60 wins.    Sounds about right to me.   

They don’t like Akin much, that’s for sure.   
 

From the article:  "

I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR."

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2 minutes ago, atomic said:

From the article:  "

I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR."

That’s not what I did.   The reason you can’t do that is because ZiPS isn’t allocating playing time when they make their individual projections.    The list of hitters adds up to like 18-19,000 plate appearances, whereas the whole team will actually only have a little over 6,000.    But if you look at their little picture of the diamond where they’re estimating WAR by position, that gets you to the 11-12 I cited. And I’m not worried about getting karate chopped by Dave Szymborski.   

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So ZiPS, Steamer and Marcel projections are all out there now.   OPS projections for key O’s (in that order)

Mancini: .832/.824/.828

Alberto: .696/.726/.752

Ruiz: .693/.723/.705

Iglesias: .681/.695/.707

Santander: .719/.760/.756

Mountcastle: .725/.769/—

Hays: .730/.756/.810

Sisco: .723/.725/.733

Severino: .668/.707/.694

Davis: .624/.676/.629

Nunez: .765/.764/.778

Stewart: .723/.707/.772

Smith: .699/.748/.746

Wilkerson: .622/.648/.698

Martin: .606/.636/.673

ZiPS is on the low end on just about every player.    I don’t know if it just doesn’t like our players much, or perhaps it’s expecting a lower run environment than the other two.   
 

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A smattering of ERAs among rotation possibilities:

4.78 Means

5.12 BAUMANN

5.15 Cobb

5.20 Lowther

5.66 Kremer

5.76 Stewart

5.93 Wojo

6.16 Akin

A list increasing excitement for the first 2020 Baumann looks.  Improvement and no-hitters after midseason promotions by high fastball artists with the new regime is an interesting brew.  Norfolk or Bowie to open year will be one to watch - if Norfolk would be his 3rd level in 12 months.

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This article is assuming a lot of personnel that won’t necessarily be here. Smith will likely be gone, Stewart will be good or in AAA because we have other guys who can do what he does and they’ll get their chance.

I don’t think Wilkerson and Martin will both make it and maybe neither of them.

the pitching should be considerably better....well maybe not “considerably” but certainly “noticeably” better.

Anyway, too early for projections. Let’s chat again in late March...which is 55 days away.

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2 hours ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Smith will be gone? I don’t see that happening.

Not yet, But his spot has got to be in danger. He has an option left and after he cooled off, he wasn’t hitting well and his defense was really awful. I don’t think they will keep him and Stewart.

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Interestingly they’re all projecting Davis to have a higher OPS than he put up the last two years. It’s still terrible (about the same as Wilkerson) but odd to see any optimism there. 

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3 hours ago, InsideCoroner said:

Interestingly they’re all projecting Davis to have a higher OPS than he put up the last two years. It’s still terrible (about the same as Wilkerson) but odd to see any optimism there. 

You have to realize that all these projections systems are merely algorithms that just look at the player’s historical performance and apply some rules.     They don’t look at why the player has the pattern he does or apply any form of human judgment.     They don’t know that Davis doesn’t have any bat speed and freezes at the plate.    So they are usually going to regress to the mean, while applying some “normal” aging curves.    

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