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2020 ZIPS Projections are in

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3 hours ago, InsideCoroner said:

Interestingly they’re all projecting Davis to have a higher OPS than he put up the last two years. It’s still terrible (about the same as Wilkerson) but odd to see any optimism there. 

 

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You have to realize that all these projections systems are merely algorithms that just look at the player’s historical performance and apply some rules.     They don’t look at why the player has the pattern he does or apply any form of human judgment.     They don’t know that Davis doesn’t have any bat speed and freezes at the plate.    So they are usually going to regress to the mean, while applying some “normal” aging curves.    

If you weight the last four years at 4, 3, 2, 1, with last year being most heavily weighted, you get a projection of .628 for Davis.  That's without any adjustments for run context or aging.  That's right in line with Zips and Marcels.  Steamer's .676 is hard to fathom, that's higher than a straight average of his last four years.

Depending on how much you think the ball is going to be un-juiced, I'd put a reasonable Davis projection including aging at .600 or lower.

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I don't get why Cobb is projected to do so poorly.  He's healthy again.  He's 32.  He's pitched his entire career in the AL East and has a 3.85 career ERA.  I know its been a brutal tenure with the O's, but it seems reasonable to expect him to put up a 4.50 or so...  I know offense is up league-wide, but still. 

Also, I'll be a little bummed if they're right and Mancini's OPS drops like 70 points.

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48 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

I don't get why Cobb is projected to do so poorly.  He's healthy again.  He's 32.  He's pitched his entire career in the AL East and has a 3.85 career ERA.  I know its been a brutal tenure with the O's, but it seems reasonable to expect him to put up a 4.50 or so...  I know offense is up league-wide, but still. 

Also, I'll be a little bummed if they're right and Mancini's OPS drops like 70 points.

Over the last four years Cobb's FIP has been 4.77.  He's coming off a second major injury.  His K rate fell from 8ish to 6ish after his last major injury.  And he'll be pitching half his games in a very good home run park.  I'll be happy if he somehow manages to throw the 122 innings they're projecting. 

Mancini will be 28 and has a career OPS of .819.  My projection for most anyone in the 27-30 age bracket would have to be pretty close to his career mark.

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I feel like Dave Szymborski speaks for all of us (aside from the Mountcastle not being good part). 

"I’m increasingly confused as to why Chris Davis is on the team. He has no offensive value, no defensive value, and tried to go after manager Brandon Hyde in the dugout (true to form, Davis didn’t get a hit here either). Even worse, Davis at first leaves Trey Mancini playing the outfield, which he does awkwardly, and blocks the most obvious play to place Ryan Mountcastle. And while I don’t think Mountcastle would actually be good, he’s better than Davis and actually has a future. Orioles, the money is gone; this is just sad." - Dave Szymborski

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54 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I also think Hays might flirt with 20 / 20 if he can stay healthy. Something like a 2017 / 2018 Andrew Benintendi type season if the planets align. 

That's what he has to prove.  I think Cobb is a lost cause.  He's pretty much in Davis territory to me as a sunk cost.  At least Cobb though can "hypothetically" eat innings.  

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9 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

That's what he has to prove.  I think Cobb is a lost cause.  He's pretty much in Davis territory to me as a sunk cost.  At least Cobb though can "hypothetically" eat innings.  

Cobb is a complete mystery to me.    He could be anywhere between pretty good and worthless.     I’m hoping for the former, but not counting on it.   I have no hopes that Davis will be good; I’m just hoping that he’ll be less bad, or be gone.    

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I saw a couple references in this thread to possible de-juicing of the ball for 2020.  I know MLB never really admitted that the ball was juiced in the first place, so it is probably highly unlikely that there is any publicizing of an attempt to soften the ball for this year, so is this postulating?   Or has there been some leak of information somewhere to point to this?  Just wondering.

Either way,  are these projection systems stating they are adding in a less super bouncy ball into their calculations?   Disclaimer: Yes, I am being lazy and just asking posters here instead of taking the effort to read the projection systems definitions myself.    😎

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I see BP released its PECOTA projections yesterday.    If anyone here subscribes and wants to post slash lines for our main hitters and ERA’s for the pitchers, I’d be interested to see what they say.   

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