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Yossarian

Rodriguez/Hall

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According to MLB.com, Baltimore has the #10 rated RHP and #10 rated LHP prospects for 2020.  That's not a bad way to begin the re-build.

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1 hour ago, Yossarian said:

According to MLB.com, Baltimore has the #10 rated RHP and #10 rated LHP prospects for 2020.  That's not a bad way to begin the re-build.

Rajsich made two pretty good picks there, it appears.    

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They also have 3 high picks this year in the draft. Theoretically  if they draft well, develop better, and don’t graduate too many prospects, they could easily have a top 5 farm system in 2020. How hard could it be 🤗

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46 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Will be happy if one of them turns into a halfway decent starter.  

 

43 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

We know you have low standards.

I’ve been meaning to have a look at the success rate of these types of pitching prospects in recent years.    I’ve seen research on this topic from time to time, but I’m not sure I’ve seen anything in a few years.    But bottom line, fewer than half of these 20 prospects will become reliable starters, I expect.

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8 minutes ago, TheOtherRipken said:

They also have 3 high picks this year in the draft. Theoretically  if they draft well, develop better, and don’t graduate too many prospects, they could easily have a top 5 farm system in 2020. How hard could it be 🤗

They will almost definitely graduate their 4th and 5th prospects on the OH list (Mountcastle and Hays) and they are very likely to graduate at least one if not both of their 11th and 12th prospects (Kremer and Akin). 

Can probably pencil the #2 overall pick into the #2 spot ahead of Hall and Rodriguez (barring leaps forward by either in 2020) and the 2nd and 3rd picks will be taken around the same spot as Henderson, so they will be in the conversation in the back of the top 10.

Would need another really good development year to sniff the top 5. A big year from Diaz and continued development from Rodrgiuez, Rutschman and Hall. Best case scenario would have those 4 plus the #2 overall pick in the top 50. Not many other candidates to sneak into the top 100 though, Henderson is probably the only other one with a shot if he has a great first season in full season ball.

Not impossible, but I wouldn't count on it, especially since there aren't any valuable trade chips that could be traded for prospects.

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14 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

They will almost definitely graduate their 4th and 5th prospects on the OH list (Mountcastle and Hays) and they are very likely to graduate at least one if not both of their 11th and 12th prospects (Kremer and Akin). 

Can probably pencil the #2 overall pick into the #2 spot ahead of Hall and Rodriguez (barring leaps forward by either in 2020) and the 2nd and 3rd picks will be taken around the same spot as Henderson, so they will be in the conversation in the back of the top 10.

Would need another really good development year to sniff the top 5. A big year from Diaz and continued development from Rodrgiuez, Rutschman and Hall. Best case scenario would have those 4 plus the #2 overall pick in the top 50. Not many other candidates to sneak into the top 100 though, Henderson is probably the only other one with a shot if he has a great first season in full season ball.

Not impossible, but I wouldn't count on it, especially since there aren't any valuable trade chips that could be traded for prospects.

Becoming a top 5 system depends on development of our “middle class” prospects.   We’d need a lot of progress there to move to that level.   

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21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

But bottom line, fewer than half of these 20 prospects will become reliable starters, I expect.

I think half is about right. Looking at the 2015 lists, the lefties included Urias, Matz, Newcomb, Snell, Allard and Manaea, while the righties had Giolito, Berrios, Glasnow and Jon Gray. I would consider those ten reliable starters (projecting a little in Allard's case).

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2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Becoming a top 5 system depends on development of our “middle class” prospects.   We’d need a lot of progress there to move to that level.   

Yeah, that would help too, but 5 top 50 prospects would go a long way! Hopefully the 2019 draft class steps forward and we draft well in 2020.

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6 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Will be happy if one of them turns into a halfway decent starter.  

Honestly though this is the correct line of thinking, a rebuild takes depth. We can’t have a successful rebuild where we need our top prospects to all hit their ceilings at the same time. 

We need depth. 

We’re going to have top 100 prospects. We better have, we’re going to be drafting really high. But it’s more of what do we have in the organization top 10-50.  

We have to combine our high draft picks, good Dominican signing classes, and better player development. 

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8 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

They will almost definitely graduate their 4th and 5th prospects on the OH list (Mountcastle and Hays) and they are very likely to graduate at least one if not both of their 11th and 12th prospects (Kremer and Akin). 

Can probably pencil the #2 overall pick into the #2 spot ahead of Hall and Rodriguez (barring leaps forward by either in 2020) and the 2nd and 3rd picks will be taken around the same spot as Henderson, so they will be in the conversation in the back of the top 10.

Would need another really good development year to sniff the top 5. A big year from Diaz and continued development from Rodrgiuez, Rutschman and Hall. Best case scenario would have those 4 plus the #2 overall pick in the top 50. Not many other candidates to sneak into the top 100 though, Henderson is probably the only other one with a shot if he has a great first season in full season ball.

Not impossible, but I wouldn't count on it, especially since there aren't any valuable trade chips that could be traded for prospects.

While the Top Prospects lists do consider overall talent and ceiling, they also really are a measure of close-ness to the majors.

Think about the Machado trade, people were thinking the O's could get Lux or May because they were their #9 and #14 ranked prospects in the public lists. Inside the Dodgers organization, I'm sure they had those prospects ranked much, much higher and didn't even consider trading them.

 

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I am excited by Bauman, Kremer, and Lowther too. They have performed just as well, just less pedigree factor. Hall has some major bust potential if he can't get his walks down. Then again he could be the next Chris Sale. Would be great if we could develop a couple of Ace level guys. Looks like pitching will be the core of the rebuild.

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8 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

They will almost definitely graduate their 4th and 5th prospects on the OH list (Mountcastle and Hays) and they are very likely to graduate at least one if not both of their 11th and 12th prospects (Kremer and Akin). 

Can probably pencil the #2 overall pick into the #2 spot ahead of Hall and Rodriguez (barring leaps forward by either in 2020) and the 2nd and 3rd picks will be taken around the same spot as Henderson, so they will be in the conversation in the back of the top 10.

Would need another really good development year to sniff the top 5. A big year from Diaz and continued development from Rodrgiuez, Rutschman and Hall. Best case scenario would have those 4 plus the #2 overall pick in the top 50. Not many other candidates to sneak into the top 100 though, Henderson is probably the only other one with a shot if he has a great first season in full season ball.

Not impossible, but I wouldn't count on it, especially since there aren't any valuable trade chips that could be traded for prospects.

Glass half full - the players you mentioned have to reach the at bats to graduate, so its not a gimme, and certainly mid-season rankings will reflect that. Also theres a lot of really young interesting guys from 10-30, so to your point, its all about how we develop our guys.

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