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wildcard

Will Cobb pitch well enough to be traded in July 2020?

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I think he'd have to pitch incredibly well before the deadline to even have a chance to get traded, plus stay healthy on top of that. 

Honestly I think we're gonna be stuck with him until the contract is up because I just don't see him staying healthy.

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2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Elias is trying to jettison as much salary as he can.   Alex Cobb salary of 14m in 2020 and 15m in 2021 looks like a salary that Elias would like to move.  But for that to happen Cobb has to have a good first half of the season.    Will he pitch well enough to be traded?

The odds appear against it.  2018 was Cobb first season in Camden Yards as his home.  It didn't go that well.   5-15, 4.90 ERA  152.1 IP,  172 H, 1.411 WHIP.   Not many teams would sign up to give him 14m for that quality  of performance.  So maybe if he just gets away from Camden Yard things will get better.   Not Much:  5-8,  4.88 ERA, 90.1 IP, 103 H  1.417 away from home.  

2019 was worst. He pitched 12.1 inning before missing the rest of the season on the IL.

So how does Cobb project to be better than a 4.90 ERA and a 1.400 WHIP at 32 years old this coming season?  And what team is going to offer to take the last 4.5m on his contract in July and 15m next season?   Can the O's pay someone to take him like they did with Cashner this past season?   When Cashner was traded for a couple of Dominicans he had a 9-3 record,  a 3.83 ERA  and a 1.194 WHIP in 17  starts.   Can Cobb do that? And Cashner only had a little over 3m guarantee left on his contract.  

Will the O's be able to trade Cobb in July or will he be an Oriole in 2021?   

I leave it up the OH to predict.

 

One thing we have to get out of Cobb is innings.  This team is incredibly short on guys that can come in and eat innings, especially after losing guys like Bundy, Ynoa, Brooks, Yack etc. If Cobb cannot give them at least 150 IP, they will be digging into that AA rotation much sooner than they would like.

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

To be clear, the 20% chance I was talking about was that he’ll have that kind of season.   I wasn’t making odds on him being traded.   If he’s doing that well in July, there’s a pretty good chance he’ll be traded.    If he’s doing somewhat worse but not awful (let’s say 4.50 ERA), he still might get traded, but we’d have to eat even more of his salary and take even less of a prospect in return.   If we hit the jackpot and he’s having a top Cobb season (say, 3.50 ERA), maybe we eat a bit less and get a slightly better return.    But we’re not going to get a very significant return no matter what happens, I expect.   

I'd imagine if he is pitching that well and they can get a token player (or more) and reduce some payroll, there's near 100% chance they move him.  So the 20% still basically applies to the season and getting traded.  ;) 

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2 hours ago, wildcard said:

Elias is trying to jettison as much salary as he can.   Alex Cobb salary of 14m in 2020 and 15m in 2021 looks like a salary that Elias would like to move.  But for that to happen Cobb has to have a good first half of the season.    Will he pitch well enough to be traded?

The odds appear against it.  2018 was Cobb first season in Camden Yards as his home.  It didn't go that well.   5-15, 4.90 ERA  152.1 IP,  172 H, 1.411 WHIP.   Not many teams would sign up to give him 14m for that quality  of performance.  So maybe if he just gets away from Camden Yard things will get better.   Not Much:  5-8,  4.88 ERA, 90.1 IP, 103 H  1.417 away from home.  

2019 was worst. He pitched 12.1 inning before missing the rest of the season on the IL.

So how does Cobb project to be better than a 4.90 ERA and a 1.400 WHIP at 32 years old this coming season?  And what team is going to offer to take the last 4.5m on his contract in July and 15m next season?   Can the O's pay someone to take him like they did with Cashner this past season?   When Cashner was traded for a couple of Dominicans he had a 9-3 record,  a 3.83 ERA  and a 1.194 WHIP in 17  starts.   Can Cobb do that? And Cashner only had a little over 3m guarantee left on his contract.  

Will the O's be able to trade Cobb in July or will he be an Oriole in 2021?   

I leave it up the OH to predict.

 

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9 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

One thing we have to get out of Cobb is innings.  This team is incredibly short on guys that can come in and eat innings, especially after losing guys like Bundy, Ynoa, Brooks, Yack etc. If Cobb cannot give them at least 150 IP, they will be digging into that AA rotation much sooner than they would like.

I think you mean waiver wire, cash trades for AAA/AAAA guys and street pickup type.  Even with the struggles last year no one was rushed.  (Although we have kept a few waiver guys in AAA, so they will get shots as well).

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1 minute ago, jerios55 said:

I'd imagine if he is pitching that well and they can get a token player (or more) and reduce some payroll, there's near 100% chance they move him.  So the 20% still basically applies to the season and getting traded.  ;) 

Probably true.   Shame is, I wouldn’t mind having Cobb around to mentor the younger pitchers, if he’s actually doing decently himself.    We have a lot of young pitchers who will reach the majors in the next two seasons.    

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6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Probably true.   Shame is, I wouldn’t mind having Cobb around to mentor the younger pitchers, if he’s actually doing decently himself.    We have a lot of young pitchers who will reach the majors in the next two seasons.    

I don't disagree.  He has been a decent SP in the past.  Some of the experience is good for teaching.  I do woner how much analytics drives routines and if coaches can provide some of that, in event there is no active roster mentor.

His upside is higher than Cashner's in my mind, but obviously a lot has changed from injuries since he joined us.  Once those hit you never know what is going to be left either.  

However, there is good reason to agree any decent signs of life and he's gone.  I believe John Means will be the "seasoned vet" fairly soon.  Either Cobb pitches well and gets moved or he gets hurt again and isn't around.  I suppose there is a 5-6 era struggling version middle ground, but I'm not sure how much mentoring he'll be doing if he can't get himself right. 

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So last spring, ME doesn't know.what he has on MLB roster or minors. He thinks Bundy, Cashner, Cobb is his rotation plus.a.cast of spare parts. Cobb is hurt and out but Means appears. He still moves Cashner leaving 2 starters. This year he has Means, who came out of nowhere, and maybe Cobb. Not nearly what he started with a year ago. Maybe a better handle on minors but the real prospects are not knocking yet. If Cobb is servicable I think he keeps him and deals him off season or next deadline. Reason is he won't get much anyway and would have to pay more to move him  in 20 than 21. Cobb to eat innings in 20 if healthy. More prospect development over budget savings.

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He's basically trying out for the league, and very likely the subset of ~85 win wildcard contenders who have back of rotation problems they don't want to deter their push for 88-90 wins.  I think his contract is hopelessly underwater, so the real delta is - if he is decent - do we have to subsidize 50% or 80% of it for a token player?  

If he is good for 1.5 seasons maybe he'd fetch something interesting in July 2021, but if he's cromulent at all for July 2020 or next offseason, I am guessing Elias will try to move him along.  Year 1 was when we needed him good - now it is just a debt note.

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Maybe if he pitches like Jimenez(circa first half of 2010) he could be moved at the 2020 deadline. Best hope is he has a good and healthy year this year and has a strong start to 2021 and then maybe he could be moved at that deadline. 

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Two more years of Cobb.  Three more years of Davis.  

I’m so excited. I just can’t fight it.  I’m about to lose control and I don’t like it.  I don’t like it.

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If his ERA is floating around 4 and a bigger market that needs pitching help are in the hunt (the Angels being a good potential candidate ) ,  I can see them taking a flyer.  It wouldn't be much more than a salary dump and we'd most likely have to eat half of it and wouldn't get back much in return.

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