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Frobby

Low hanging fruit

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When I look at how the O’s might pick up some more wins this year, I see two areas that should represent low-hanging fruit.   

First, the bullpen.    They literally had a 50% save rate last year, in 54 chances.    That’s really pathetic.    Even the really crappy teams we had from 1998-2011 always managed 55-60%; league average is 67%.    The bullpen ERA of 5.79 was .72 runs worse than the next worse team and 1.35 runs worse than league average.    Givens, Castro and Bleier were all far worse than their career norms and nobody else stepped up.   I think our bullpen this year can still be lousy and yet be considerably better than last year.   We could pick up 3-6 wins with relatively modest improvement there.  

The second area is defense.    Iglesias at SS is a big upgrade.    More playing time for  Alberto at 2B is an upgrade.    Hays in CF is an upgrade.    There’s the possibility for better defense in the corner OF spots depending on who Hyde plays there, and I think the extra year of experience will benefit Severino and Sisco.    I think we could pick up 3-6 wins there too.

By the same token, I think we’ve lost some ground on offense with Villar’s departure and in the rotation with Bundy gone.    On net I see us as a 55-60 win team right now, pending various developments.  

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35 minutes ago, Frobby said:

When I look at how the O’s might pick up some more wins this year, I see two areas that should represent low-hanging fruit.   

First, the bullpen.    They literally had a 50% save rate last year, in 54 chances.    That’s really pathetic.    Even the really crappy teams we had from 1998-2011 always managed 55-60%; league average is 67%.    The bullpen ERA of 5.79 was .72 runs worse than the next worse team and 1.35 runs worse than league average.    Givens, Castro and Bleier were all far worse than their career norms and nobody else stepped up.   I think our bullpen this year can still be lousy and yet be considerably better than last year.   We could pick up 3-6 wins with relatively modest improvement there.  

The second area is defense.    Iglesias at SS is a big upgrade.    More playing time for  Alberto at 2B is an upgrade.    Hays in CF is an upgrade.    There’s the possibility for better defense in the corner OF spots depending on who Hyde plays there, and I think the extra year of experience will benefit Severino and Sisco.    I think we could pick up 3-6 wins there too.

By the same token, I think we’ve lost some ground on offense with Villar’s departure and in the rotation with Bundy gone.    On net I see us as a 55-60 win team right now, pending various developments.  

We lost Cashner and Bundy from last years team and didn’t replace them.  I don’t see how are bullpen will better as we didn’t add anyone.  Pitching is going to be atrocious. Our best position player is gone.       
 

Severino is terrible defensively and his hitting wasn’t good near the end of the season. I expect less than nothing from him.  He never showed signs of hitting before.  Most likely last year was his career year.  
 

Between Cashner, Bundy and Villar we lost 9 WAR from last years team. We only had 17 WAR.  Those three guys provided over half the teams WAR.  We added a guy at best who could add two wins. 
 

That is not taking into account how starters who can’t pitch more than a couple of innings is going to destroy the bullpen.

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36 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The fruit that is Davis has been lying on the ground for a couple of years.

I had this image of Chris Davis sitting in shallow right field picking clovers out of the grass like I used to in tee ball.

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2 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

I had this image of Chris Davis sitting in shallow right field picking clovers out of the grass like I used to in tee ball.

 

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I had high hopes for improved defense last season, but the defense remained awful.

I hope the defense will be better this year but it remains to be seen. Sisco is a waste. I have no faith in his suddenly turning into an asset on either defense or offense. I’m not much more hopeful about Severino but at least he’s a real catcher.

I agree that the pitching will be awful, but it will be better as we bring up Akin/Etc, so pitching and defense are indeed a reason for hope.

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26 minutes ago, atomic said:

We lost Cashner and Bundy from last years team and didn’t replace them.  I don’t see how are bullpen will better as we didn’t add anyone.  Pitching is going to be atrocious. Our best position player is gone.       
 

Severino is terrible defensively and his hitting wasn’t good near the end of the season. I expect less than nothing from him.  He never showed signs of hitting before.  Most likely last year was his career year.  
 

Between Cashner, Bundy and Villar we lost 9 WAR from last years team. We only had 17 WAR.  Those three guys provided over half the teams WAR.  We added a guy at best who could add two wins. 
 

That is not taking into account how starters who can’t pitch more than a couple of innings is going to destroy the bullpen.

I forgot about Cashner.    Interestingly, we actually played better after we traded him. The O’s were 27-61 after Cashner’s last start with us; they went 27-47.     But losing Cashner’s and Bundy’s innings is a lot to compensate for.   

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I hope for more down rotation as we get to unveil our Better Than Meh basket.

2019 Games Started by Class

Maybe Good: 57 by Bundy/Means

Meh: 33 by Cashner/Wojo

Hopeless: 72 by....a hopeless list, including Broken Cobb

2020 Hopes

Maybe Good: 32 by Means

Better Than Meh: 80?    Stewart, Akin, Bailey, Lowther, Kremer, Baumann, Mattson

Meh: 50 by Bionic Cobb/Wojo

Some of the BTM basket will prove to be hopeless of course, but it'll still be a bit more interesting to watch than last year's batch.

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I had the idea last season of getting the best defensive player at every position. Then acquiring a handful of ground ball starting pitchers to bridge the gap until the minors league pipeline starts going.

It went over like a lead balloon though.

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4 hours ago, Frobby said:

They literally had a 50% save rate last year, in 54 chances

What is league average?

Edit: it’s in the original post, I just missed it the first time I read it.

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2 minutes ago, Philip said:

What is league average?

 

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

When I look at how the O’s might pick up some more wins this year, I see two areas that should represent low-hanging fruit.   

First, the bullpen.    They literally had a 50% save rate last year, in 54 chances.    That’s really pathetic.    Even the really crappy teams we had from 1998-2011 always managed 55-60%; league average is 67%.    The bullpen ERA of 5.79 was .72 runs worse than the next worse team and 1.35 runs worse than league average.    Givens, Castro and Bleier were all far worse than their career norms and nobody else stepped up.   I think our bullpen this year can still be lousy and yet be considerably better than last year.   We could pick up 3-6 wins with relatively modest improvement there.  

 

 

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3 hours ago, Frobby said:

 They literally had a 50% save rate last year, in 54 chances.    That’s really pathetic.    Even the really crappy teams we had from 1998-2011 always managed 55-60%; league average is 67%.  

 

2 minutes ago, Philip said:

What is league average?

It was already there if you had read the entire first three sentences.

 

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3 minutes ago, Philip said:

What is league average?

Usually about 67%.    63% last year.   Remember this includes all those games where a lead is lost after the fifth inning.   Closers average about 85%+.   Givens was at 58% in 19 chances.   

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3 hours ago, Frobby said:

When I look at how the O’s might pick up some more wins this year, I see two areas that should represent low-hanging fruit.   

First, the bullpen.    They literally had a 50% save rate last year, in 54 chances.    That’s really pathetic.    Even the really crappy teams we had from 1998-2011 always managed 55-60%; league average is 67%.    The bullpen ERA of 5.79 was .72 runs worse than the next worse team and 1.35 runs worse than league average.    Givens, Castro and Bleier were all far worse than their career norms and nobody else stepped up.   I think our bullpen this year can still be lousy and yet be considerably better than last year.   We could pick up 3-6 wins with relatively modest improvement there.  

The second area is defense.    Iglesias at SS is a big upgrade.    More playing time for  Alberto at 2B is an upgrade.    Hays in CF is an upgrade.    There’s the possibility for better defense in the corner OF spots depending on who Hyde plays there, and I think the extra year of experience will benefit Severino and Sisco.    I think we could pick up 3-6 wins there too.

By the same token, I think we’ve lost some ground on offense with Villar’s departure and in the rotation with Bundy gone.    On net I see us as a 55-60 win team right now, pending various developments.  

I think the bullpen has the potential to be better this year. I'd like to see Harvey get a chance to close and move Givens, Castro to earlier inning spots where they had a little bit more success. I'm not sure if Harvey is ready for the closers role, but at this point what would it hurt to see what he can do. 

The bigger problem is going to be the rotation and how often they will be able to give the bullpen a chance to close out a game. Right now it's basically Means and everyone else.

I think defensively we should be improved with Hays in CF all season and Iglesias at SS, and those two should also balance out the offense lost with Villar and replacing Martin. 

I honestly think the SP is gonna make it tough to win much this year, and put a heavy workload on the bullpen. I'm definitely not as optimistic as you Frobby and think we will be more in the 48-53 win range.

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