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Adley Rutschman Gets Major League Camp Invite

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15 hours ago, scOtt said:

Not because they're rebuilding. It because he's not ready for the bigs yet. I agree with those who think 2020 is out of the question. He'll be up in 21 sometime.

He's also got to get to minor league camp to get to know all those guys too. He knows some of them, played 3 levels last year. He has some good young pitchers to learn down there.

A little different situation, as he was a HS draftee and had more spent time in the minors,  but Joe Mauer made the Twins roster in 2004 at age 21.  And OPS'd 939 before injuries sidelined him for the year.

Posey was a September call up the year after he was drafted, but hit horribly (OPS 235 in 17 PAs) at age 22

Brian McCann also had a decent year at age 21, OPS 754 in 59 GP for the Braves in 2005

Edited by GuidoSarducci

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4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Go for it, I've got a fireplace.

Not like I was wrong about him when folks were talking him up after a hot spring.

Not many people like being right more than you.

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3 minutes ago, GuidoSarducci said:

A little different situation, as he was a HS draftee and had more spent time in the minors,  but Joe Mauer made the Twins roster in 2004 at age 21.  And OPS'd 939 before injuries sidelined him for the year.

Posey was a September call up the year after he was drafted, but hit horribly (OPS 235 in 17 PAs) at age 22

Brian McCann also had a decent year at age 21, OPS 754 in 59 GP for the Braves in 2005

I've posted this before:

Wieters- Drafted 2007 made MLB debut in 2009.

Posey- Drafted 2008 made MLB debut in 2009.

Sanchez- Drafted 2009 made MLB debut in 2013.

Zunino- Drafted 2012 made MLB debut in 2013.

Schwarber- Drafted 2014 made MLB debut in 2015.

Bart- Drafted 2018 was in AA in 2019.

 

All college catchers taken in the top 5.

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Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Not many people like being right more than you.

You are correct.

It is the joy of not going for the easy right.  (I'll admit DSjr counted as an easy right but folks still disagreed)

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Just now, Can_of_corn said:

You are correct.

It is the joy of not going for the easy right.  (I'll admit DSjr counted as an easy right but folks still disagreed)

I think you confused the joy that people got in seeing a guy like that play over his head for a few months...and the possibility that he COULD be turning a corner...with the idea that people thought he was really that good.  

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12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You are correct.

It is the joy of not going for the easy right.  (I'll admit DSjr counted as an easy right but folks still disagreed)

Off topic but - considering how a guy like Smith ended up tanking back to his true level (albeit the injuries didn't help), do we expect Alberto to totally suck this year? I just can't imagine he hits that well all year a second time.

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26 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I think people who expect him up in 2021 and are okay with what has happened this off season are smoking something.

A top prospect is like a top QB draftee.  Good teams dont bring the QB up and hope he brings you to the promise land.  You build a good offensive line and make sure there is a solid foundation in place for success.

Why waste any service time until you have something approximating a ML team.

I look forward to 2027 when I continually see the line "Its great we had Rutschman, it's just too bad we couldnt put something around him."

As for this spring training.  Good. Hes got the skills and needs to see ML quality players.

 

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Odds are good 2028 Rutschman isn't going to be a difference maker.

I don't see how you can make a case to keep him down for all of 2021 if he's playing at the level we expect. 

Honestly the O's keeping him from a years worth of free agent income by refusing to promote him should result in some punitive action against the team.

Nobody’s talking about keeping Rutschman down for all of 2021, assuming he performs as expected.    We could keep him down a few weeks and he’d still be here in 2027, unless the to-be-negotiated CBA that goes into effect in 2022 says otherwise.  

I think you can carry this advance planning stuff too far.    Nobody really knows when a particular player will peak.    I don’t know how good Rutschman will be in 2028, but I don’t really agree that “odds are” he won’t be a difference maker then.   Yeah, catchers age quickly, but if Rutschman is the hitter he’s expected to be, there’s no reason to think he’ll be done hitting at age 30.    But it’s also true that there’s a learning curve in the majors, and delaying his entry to the majors beyond what’s dictated by his development delays him reaching his peak performance.    Even if the O’s don’t contend in 2021-22, I won’t consider it a “waste” for Rutschman to have played then if it means he’s peaking by 2023.    

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2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

Nobody’s talking about keeping Rutschman down for all of 2021, assuming he performs as expected.    We could keep him down a few weeks and he’d still be here in 2027, unless the to-be-negotiated CBA that goes into effect in 2022 says otherwise.  

I think you can carry this advance planning stuff too far.    Nobody really knows when a particular player will peak.    I don’t know how good Rutschman will be in 2028, but I don’t really agree that “odds are” he won’t be a difference maker then.   Yeah, catchers age quickly, but if Rutschman is the hitter he’s expected to be, there’s no reason to think he’ll be done hitting at age 30.    But it’s also true that there’s a learning curve in the majors, and delaying his entry to the majors beyond what’s dictated by his development delays him reaching his peak performance.    Even if the O’s don’t contend in 2021-22, I won’t consider it a “waste” for Rutschman to have played then if it means he’s peaking by 2023.    

I think odds are good almost any player we could name today won't be a "difference maker" in 2028.  (I'm going with clearly above average as my definition for "difference maker".)

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5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think odds are good almost any player we could name today won't be a "difference maker" in 2028.  (I'm going with clearly above average as my definition for "difference maker".)

Well, I suppose the first thing you need to know is did he ever become a difference maker in the first place, and how much of a difference maker was he?   Then you can worry about whether he’ll still be a difference maker in 2028.

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29 minutes ago, interloper said:

Off topic but - considering how a guy like Smith ended up tanking back to his true level (albeit the injuries didn't help), do we expect Alberto to totally suck this year? I just can't imagine he hits that well all year a second time.

I expect everyone to revert to career average, more or less.

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2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, I suppose the first thing you need to know is did he ever become a difference maker in the first place, and how much of a difference maker was he?

He isn't even one at this point, which only supports my point of view.

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Just now, Can_of_corn said:

He isn't even one at this point, which only supports my point of view.

Yes, you are at least technically correct.   

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4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yes, you are at least technically correct.   

The best kind.

 

But seriously the O's shouldn't be making decisions based on what one player might do in 2028.

And I'm sure they won't be.

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49 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The best kind.

 

But seriously the O's shouldn't be making decisions based on what one player might do in 2028.

And I'm sure they won't be.

Agreed.     You and I occasionally have disagreed on whether certain players should be held back for service time reasons, but I don’t think we’ve ever disagreed that there’s only so long you can hold a player back when he’s ready for the majors.     

Saying that, while I expect Rutschman to be ready for the majors by next year, he still needs to go out and prove it.    
 

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9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Agreed.     You and I occasionally have disagreed on whether certain players should be held back for service time reasons, but I don’t think we’ve ever disagreed that there’s only so long you can hold a player back when he’s ready for the majors.     

Saying that, while I expect Rutschman to be ready for the majors by next year, he still needs to go out and prove it.    
 

Sure, I'm not suggesting his draft status gives him a free pass.

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