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1 hour ago, atomic said:

Jeter, Schilling , Bonds and Clemens looks like quite a class.

Yes, so some would say…

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Whoever voted against him is a jerk, and my hero, simultaneously.  

Mariano Rivera was a class act, and I have nothing against Jeter, but wasn’t his defense pretty terrible? I’m glad he wasn’t unanimous because I honestly don’t think he deserves to be.

Everybody goes all puppy dog eyes about Jeter because he was a Yankee. If he’d been a diamondback, or a Ranger, or a mariner, yeah he’d still get in, but nobody would be anointing him as the risen Savior.

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1 hour ago, tntoriole said:

Honus Wagner says hello! 

Ozzie Smith. Maybe Andrelton Simmons, too, he’s still playing and will for another few years, but he’s magical. And he can hit too.

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3 minutes ago, Philip said:

Mariano Rivera was a class act, and I have nothing against Jeter, but wasn’t his defense pretty terrible? I’m glad he wasn’t unanimous because I honestly don’t think he deserves to be.

Everybody goes all puppy dog eyes about Jeter because he was a Yankee. If he’d been a diamondback, or a Ranger, or a mariner, yeah he’d still get in, but nobody would be anointing him as the risen Savior.

With regards to Rivera, I still don't think that one should get a 'save' when his team is up by 3 runs going into the last at bat.  I'd like to know how many innings throughout history a team scored 3 runs or more in an inning.  That is, at least, before the juiced ball era.

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If I had a vote, I would spend some time voting for players that I really enjoyed watching, the guys who I knew are one and done fellows, but who gave me some thrills with some spectacular defense.

I wouldn’t vote for a guy who I knew was going to make it unless that guy was, for me, truly all around great player, and person as well. Jeter has a lot of hits, and that means something. But he was terrible on defense: he was so bad on defense that nobody’s talking about his defense. So I would not vote for him. Instead I would vote for guys like Brian Roberts. in the past I would’ve voted for a guy like Buddy Bell, or  Al Oliver, Toby Harrah or Mike Hargrove, guys I just loved watching play, they had so much fun and they were so good. No they’re going to be one and done, but they can always say, “hey I got a vote.” And I could give that to them.

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Interesting analysis here. It missed Walker this year (who made it by 1.6%). Bonds and Clemens moved up a bit (from 59% to 61%), but they'll have a better shot next year, when no one notable will be new on the ballot and no one will be on his last ballot. It predicts that Schilling will make it, but that Bonds and Clemens won't in their last 2 years.

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17 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

So does Grich.

You don't buy the "we didn't really understand OBP and the value of defense and positional scarcity when Grich was eligible so we voted for guys with homers and pitcher wins instead" explanation?  

Grich can't be all that Hall of Famous if the people making him famous didn't understand value very well.

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17 hours ago, tntoriole said:

Honus Wagner says hello! 

Honus was clearly the best shortstop of all time when compared to his peers, at least if you talk about a whole career in way that you exclude ARod and his half a career at third base.  And PEDs if care about such things.

But Honus played from 1897-1917.  The differences between 1897 or 1910 or 1920 baseball and today's are stark.  I could piece together a case that the best team in MLB in 1897 would struggle in the Eastern League today.  A fair bit of Honus' distance between him and average and him and replacement is the fact that an average or replacement level player of his day wouldn't even remotely be a major leaguer in 2019.  You have to at least consider that when calling someone from 120 years ago the greatest of all time.

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8 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Honus was clearly the best shortstop of all time when compared to his peers, at least if you talk about a whole career in way that you exclude ARod and his half a career at third base.  And PEDs if care about such things.

But Honus played from 1897-1917.  The differences between 1897 or 1910 or 1920 baseball and today's are stark.  I could piece together a case that the best team in MLB in 1897 would struggle in the Eastern League today.  A fair bit of Honus' distance between him and average and him and replacement is the fact that an average or replacement level player of his day wouldn't even remotely be a major leaguer in 2019.  You have to at least consider that when calling someone from 120 years ago the greatest of all time.

Baseball, for all its reliance on statistics, also has mythical and historical truths.  Saying that Abraham Lincoln likely would struggle with the current modernity is a similar argument. Some might say that dropping today’s pampered MLB millionaires into 1897 would see their performance drop as well.  But , fortunately.greatest of all time titles are only mythical and subjective titles, not solely statistical ones. 

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36 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Baseball, for all its reliance on statistics, also has mythical and historical truths.  Saying that Abraham Lincoln likely would struggle with the current modernity is a similar argument. Some might say that dropping today’s pampered MLB millionaires into 1897 would see their performance drop as well.  But , fortunately.greatest of all time titles are only mythical and subjective titles, not solely statistical ones. 

Some of them would surely die of the consumption.  But the rest would hit .455.

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17 hours ago, Philip said:

Mariano Rivera was a class act, and I have nothing against Jeter, but wasn’t his defense pretty terrible? I’m glad he wasn’t unanimous because I honestly don’t think he deserves to be.

Everybody goes all puppy dog eyes about Jeter because he was a Yankee. If he’d been a diamondback, or a Ranger, or a mariner, yeah he’d still get in, but nobody would be anointing him as the risen Savior.

If you believe BB reference, yes, his defense was pretty terrible. 

Jeter won 4 gold gloves. During those seasons, his dWAR was -.3, -1.8, -.7 and 1.1. Over his entire career, he had a -8.3 dWAR. He had only 3 years with a positive dWAR and one where it was 0.0. That means he had 16 seasons with a negative dWAR.

For comparison, Omar Vizquel had a career 29.5 dWAR, one season of which was negative. Ripken's career dWAR was 35.7, and he never had a season with a negative dWAR.

 

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1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

If you believe BB reference, yes, his defense was pretty terrible. 

Jeter won 4 gold gloves. During those seasons, his dWAR was -.3, -1.8, -.7 and 1.1. Over his entire career, he had a -8.3 dWAR. He had only 3 years with a positive dWAR and one where it was 0.0. That means he had 16 seasons with a negative dWAR.

For comparison, Omar Vizquel had a career 29.5 dWAR, one season of which was negative. Ripken's career dWAR was 35.7, and he never had a season with a negative dWAR.

 

And don't forget what dWAR is: defensive runs above/below average, plus positional adjustment.  Jeter was a shortstop, so he got a positional adjustment of about +8 runs per season.  So he's about 83 runs worse than average over his career after you account for being a shortstop and getting a fudge factor of +8 runs per season.

+20 is a pretty epic defensive season.  Jeter had three different years where bb-ref lists him as -20 to -30 runs above average.  Minus 20.  Defensively he was the bizarro Ozzie Smith.

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11 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

And don't forget what dWAR is: defensive runs above/below average, plus positional adjustment.  Jeter was a shortstop, so he got a positional adjustment of about +8 runs per season.  So he's about 83 runs worse than average over his career after you account for being a shortstop and getting a fudge factor of +8 runs per season.

+20 is a pretty epic defensive season.  Jeter had three different years where bb-ref lists him as -20 to -30 runs above average.  Minus 20.  Defensively he was the bizarro Ozzie Smith.

But he looked good doing it.    And I mean that sincerely.   

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1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I bet Schilling, Bonds, Clemens all go in next year.  And everyone yaps about what a terrible class filled with terrible people it will be.  

Whatever the results, it seems we've come to a 2-year period of reckoning with this as next year there's no new strong candidate and the year after that A-Rod splashes the pool.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28516610/predicting-mlb-hall-fame-selections-2020s

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