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Ok... Who SHOULD be in?

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17 hours ago, Frobby said:

I loved that Win Shares book when it came out; it was really cutting edge stuff at the time.    I remember James was particularly proud of the defensive component to the metric, which he said was vastly better than the other advanced defensive metrics of the day.    But I think time passed it by pretty quickly.   I still give him a ton of credit for coming up with the concept.

Same here.  Reading through all the creative ways he adjusted for things like defensive opportunities based on handedness of the pitcher, or inferring GB/FB ratios was kind of mind-blowing.  But others were coming up with alternate, often easier, ways to do that at almost the same time and that's the basis for some of the data on bb-ref and Fangraphs that goes into WAR.  Win Shares is based on a huge number of interrelated calculations that infer value from team level outcomes, so it's almost impossible to calculate yourself without some serious spreadsheet or database work.  And without good references online it is very difficult to use and understand.  Along with the philosophical differences I have with the basic framework.

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19 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Same here.  Reading through all the creative ways he adjusted for things like defensive opportunities based on handedness of the pitcher, or inferring GB/FB ratios was kind of mind-blowing.  But others were coming up with alternate, often easier, ways to do that at almost the same time and that's the basis for some of the data on bb-ref and Fangraphs that goes into WAR.  Win Shares is based on a huge number of interrelated calculations that infer value from team level outcomes, so it's almost impossible to calculate yourself without some serious spreadsheet or database work. And without good references online it is very difficult to use and understand.  Along with the philosophical differences I have with the basic framework.

I can’t calculate any of them.   That’s why OPS and it’s components will always have their place.  

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https://www.google.com/amp/s/bapple2286.wordpress.com/2008/08/13/gary-carter-does-not-belong-in-the-hall-of-fame/amp/
 

Gary Carter was a good player but he is not even in the top 20 catchers of all time and he doesn’t belong in the Hall of Fame. He’s the type of player who belongs in the Mets hall, but not Cooperstown. WAR is not as telling of a statistic as some believe and there were many greater catchers who were slightly behind Carter in WAR. 
   Carter never hit .300 and averaged only 110 hits per year. It took him six years of rejection before getting in the Hall  

I think they need to revamp the procedures for entry. Private vote should be restored so that writers can reject players without undo pressure. 5 years of rejection and out then it should take the Veterans committee and convincing evidence that an error was made, to let a previously rejected player in. M

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16 minutes ago, Maverick Hiker said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/bapple2286.wordpress.com/2008/08/13/gary-carter-does-not-belong-in-the-hall-of-fame/amp/
 

Gary Carter was a good player but he is not even in the top 20 catchers of all time and he doesn’t belong in the Hall of Fame. He’s the type of player who belongs in the Mets hall, but not Cooperstown. WAR is not as telling of a statistic as some believe and there were many greater catchers who were slightly behind Carter in WAR. 
   Carter never hit .300 and averaged only 110 hits per year. It took him six years of rejection before getting in the Hall  

I think they need to revamp the procedures for entry. Private vote should be restored so that writers can reject players without undo pressure. 5 years of rejection and out then it should take the Veterans committee and convincing evidence that an error was made, to let a previously rejected player in. M

Who are the 20 catchers better than Gary Carter?    He’s second all-time among catchers in WAR, and was an 11-time all star.  https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_C.shtml

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46 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Who are the 20 catchers better than Gary Carter?    He’s second all-time among catchers in WAR, and was an 11-time all star.  https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_C.shtml

He belongs in my opinion.

I also found this stat

Quote

Looking at Wins Above Replacement, FanGraphs has Carter fourth all-time among catchers with 72.5 WAR, wedged tightly between Ivan Rodriguez and Yogi Berra; Baseball-Reference.com has him fourth with 66.3, firmly between Carlton Fisk and Yogi Berra.

 

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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I can’t calculate any of them.   That’s why OPS and it’s components will always have their place.  

WAR is pretty easy when you have the components.  Then you just add them up.  Not only are WAR totals available from multiple public sources, but the components are, too.

Win Shares isn't readily available and the components and their interactions are more difficult.  And as far as I know Win Shares hasn't come up with a way to incorporate modern defensive metrics, so even 2019 players are graded using methods designed to infer basic stuff from 1930s box scores that we just know now.

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13 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

WAR is pretty easy when you have the components.  Then you just add them up.  Not only are WAR totals available from multiple public sources, but the components are, too.

Win Shares isn't readily available and the components and their interactions are more difficult.  And as far as I know Win Shares hasn't come up with a way to incorporate modern defensive metrics, so even 2019 players are graded using methods designed to infer basic stuff from 1930s box scores that we just know now.

Yeah the WAR components are available, but it’s not like you can easily calculate those yourself.   I mean, the BB-ref player page will show you Rbat, Rpos, Rfield, Rbaser etc., but I certainly couldn’t derive those numbers.    

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1 hour ago, Maverick Hiker said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/bapple2286.wordpress.com/2008/08/13/gary-carter-does-not-belong-in-the-hall-of-fame/amp/
 

Gary Carter was a good player but he is not even in the top 20 catchers of all time and he doesn’t belong in the Hall of Fame. He’s the type of player who belongs in the Mets hall, but not Cooperstown. WAR is not as telling of a statistic as some believe and there were many greater catchers who were slightly behind Carter in WAR. 
   Carter never hit .300 and averaged only 110 hits per year. It took him six years of rejection before getting in the Hall  

I think they need to revamp the procedures for entry. Private vote should be restored so that writers can reject players without undo pressure. 5 years of rejection and out then it should take the Veterans committee and convincing evidence that an error was made, to let a previously rejected player in. M

I'll make this simple.  Here's a list of everyone in MLB history who's caught at least 1500 games.  There's only 33 of them.  Name the 20 who you think are better than Gary Carter.

                                                                                                                                                                                              
Rk            Player    G From   To   Age    PA   AB    R    H  2B 3B  HR  RBI  BB IBB   SO HBP  SH  SF GDP  SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS         Pos                                          Tm
1     Ivan Rodriguez 2543 1991 2011 19-39 10270 9592 1354 2844 572 51 311 1332 513  67 1474  58  31  76 337 127 64 .296 .334 .464 .798     *2H/D34                     TEX-FLA-DET-NYY-HOU-WSN
2       Carlton Fisk 2499 1969 1993 21-45  9853 8756 1276 2356 421 47 376 1330 849 105 1386 143  26  79 204 128 58 .269 .341 .457 .797    *2DH/735                                     BOS-CHW
3        Ted Simmons 2456 1968 1988 18-38  9685 8680 1074 2472 483 47 248 1389 855 188  694  39  11 100 287  21 33 .285 .348 .437 .785   *2DH3/759                                 STL-MIL-ATL
4        Gary Carter 2296 1974 1992 20-38  9019 7971 1025 2092 371 31 324 1225 848 106  997  68  33  99 180  39 42 .262 .335 .439 .773    *2H9/375                             MON-NYM-SFG-LAD
5          Bob Boone 2264 1972 1990 24-42  8148 7245  679 1838 303 26 105  826 663  90  608  20 142  78 191  38 50 .254 .315 .346 .661    *2/H35D7                                 PHI-CAL-KCR
6       Johnny Bench 2158 1967 1983 19-35  8674 7658 1091 2048 381 24 389 1376 891 135 1278  19  11  90 201  68 43 .267 .342 .476 .817   *253H/798                                         CIN
7         Yogi Berra 2120 1946 1965 21-40  8359 7555 1175 2150 321 49 358 1430 704  91  414  52   9  44 146  30 26 .285 .348 .482 .830    *2H79/35                                     NYY-NYM
8      Jason Kendall 2085 1996 2010 22-36  8702 7627 1030 2195 394 35  75  744 721  51  686 254  36  63 176 189 89 .288 .366 .378 .744     *2/H79D                         PIT-OAK-CHC-MIL-KCR
9    A.J. Pierzynski 2059 1998 2016 21-39  7815 7290  807 2043 407 24 188  909 308  68  895 129  28  58 241  15 23 .280 .319 .420 .739       *2H/D                 MIN-SFG-CHW-TEX-STL-BOS-ATL
10    Gabby Hartnett 1990 1922 1941 21-40  7297 6432  867 1912 396 64 236 1179 703   1  697  35     127  93  28  8 .297 .370 .489 .858       *2H/3                                     CHC-NYG
11         Tony Pena 1988 1980 1997 23-40  7073 6489  667 1687 298 27 107  708 455  72  846  23  68  38 234  80 63 .260 .309 .364 .673    *2/H39D5                     PIT-STL-BOS-CLE-HOU-CHW
12     Lance Parrish 1988 1977 1995 21-39  7797 7067  856 1782 305 27 324 1070 612  62 1527  37  23  58 197  28 37 .252 .313 .440 .753    *2D/H397                 DET-PHI-CAL-SEA-CLE-PIT-TOR
13     Yadier Molina 1983 2004 2019 21-36  7655 6970  701 1963 379  7 156  916 507  49  782  66  42  70 254  66 37 .282 .333 .405 .738     *2/3HD5                                         STL
14   Benito Santiago 1978 1986 2005 21-40  7516 6951  755 1830 323 41 217  920 430  52 1270  38  26  70 204  91 69 .263 .307 .415 .722     *2H/37D         SDP-FLA-PHI-TOR-CHC-CIN-SFG-KCR-PIT
15       Brad Ausmus 1971 1993 2010 24-41  7102 6279  718 1579 270 34  80  607 634  69 1034  69  82  37 201 102 53 .251 .325 .344 .669    *2/H3456                             SDP-HOU-DET-LAD
16      Jim Sundberg 1962 1974 1989 23-38  6899 6021  621 1493 243 36  95  624 699  31  963  22 118  38 159  20 37 .248 .327 .348 .674      *2/H7D                             TEX-MIL-KCR-CHC
17          Al Lopez 1950 1928 1947 19-38  6608 5916  613 1547 206 43  51  652 556  55  538  14     121 137  46  9 .261 .326 .337 .663     *2/H543                             BRO-BSN-PIT-CLE
18       Mike Piazza 1912 1992 2007 23-38  7745 6911 1048 2127 344  8 427 1335 759 146 1113  30   0  45 229  17 20 .308 .377 .545 .922      *2DH/3                         LAD-FLA-NYM-SDP-OAK
19      Rick Ferrell 1884 1929 1947 23-41  7076 6028  687 1692 324 45  28  734 931  23  277  10     103  55  29 35 .281 .378 .363 .741        *2/H                                 SLB-BOS-WSH
20    Ernie Lombardi 1853 1931 1947 23-39  6352 5855  601 1792 277 27 190  990 430  50  262  46      18 261   8  4 .306 .358 .460 .818         *2H                             BRO-CIN-BSN-NYG
21      Jorge Posada 1829 1995 2011 23-39  7150 6092  900 1664 379 10 275 1065 936  78 1453  74   1  47 186  20 21 .273 .374 .474 .848     *2DH/34                                         NYY
22       Bill Dickey 1789 1928 1946 21-39  7065 6300  930 1969 343 72 202 1209 678  26  289  31      51  49  36 32 .313 .382 .486 .868         *2H                                         NYY
23    Darrell Porter 1782 1971 1987 19-35  6570 5539  765 1369 237 48 188  826 905 106 1025  45  18  63 102  39 37 .247 .354 .409 .763      *2HD/3                             MIL-KCR-STL-TEX
24    Deacon McGuire 1781 1884 1912 20-48  6938 6291  770 1750 300 79  45  840     515  442  84          47 118  0 .278 .341 .372 .713 *2/395678H1 TOL-DTN-PHI-CLE-ROC-WAS-WHS-BRO-DET-NYY-BOS
25      Bill Freehan 1774 1961 1976 19-34  6900 6073  706 1591 241 35 200  758 626  67  753 114  38  48 138  24 21 .262 .340 .412 .752    *23/HD79                                         DET
26      Rick Dempsey 1765 1969 1992 19-42  5407 4692  525 1093 223 12  96  471 592  13  736  18  63  42 131  20 19 .233 .319 .347 .666  *2H/D97315                     MIN-NYY-BAL-CLE-LAD-MIL
27        Ray Schalk 1762 1912 1929 19-36  6240 5306  579 1345 199 49  11  593     638  358  59         214 177 69 .253 .340 .316 .656        *2/H                                     CHW-NYG
28      Brian McCann 1755 2005 2019 21-35  6850 6067  742 1590 294  5 282 1018 640  71 1054  75   9  59 180  25  9 .262 .337 .452 .789      *2H/D3                                 NYY-HOU-ATL
29      Sherm Lollar 1752 1946 1963 21-38  6220 5351  623 1415 244 14 155  808 671  68  453 115  47  34 184  20 10 .264 .357 .402 .759      *2H/35                             CLE-NYY-SLB-CHW
30    Russell Martin 1693 2006 2019 23-36  6648 5701  803 1416 255  9 191  771 792  46 1211 107  12  36 190 101 51 .248 .349 .397 .746 *2/H5D41679                             LAD-NYY-PIT-TOR
31         Jim Hegan 1666 1941 1960 20-39  5321 4772  550 1087 187 46  92  525 456  79  742   4  72  14 113  15 24 .228 .295 .344 .639        *2/H                         CLE-DET-SFG-PHI-CHC
32       Luke Sewell 1630 1921 1942 20-41  6043 5383  653 1393 272 56  20  698 486   0  307  27     145   1  66 44 .259 .323 .341 .665   *2/H39745                             CLE-WSH-CHW-SLB
33      Steve ONeill 1590 1911 1928 19-36  5566 4795  448 1259 248 34  13  534     592  414  43         130  30 26 .263 .349 .337 .685       *2/H3                             CLE-BOS-NYY-SLB


 
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23 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'll make this simple.  Here's a list of everyone in MLB history who's caught at least 1500 games.  There's only 33 of them.  Name the 20 who you think are better than Gary Carter.

 


                                                                                                                                                                                              
Rk            Player    G From   To   Age    PA   AB    R    H  2B 3B  HR  RBI  BB IBB   SO HBP  SH  SF GDP  SB CS   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS         Pos                                          Tm
1     Ivan Rodriguez 2543 1991 2011 19-39 10270 9592 1354 2844 572 51 311 1332 513  67 1474  58  31  76 337 127 64 .296 .334 .464 .798     *2H/D34                     TEX-FLA-DET-NYY-HOU-WSN
2       Carlton Fisk 2499 1969 1993 21-45  9853 8756 1276 2356 421 47 376 1330 849 105 1386 143  26  79 204 128 58 .269 .341 .457 .797    *2DH/735                                     BOS-CHW
3        Ted Simmons 2456 1968 1988 18-38  9685 8680 1074 2472 483 47 248 1389 855 188  694  39  11 100 287  21 33 .285 .348 .437 .785   *2DH3/759                                 STL-MIL-ATL
4        Gary Carter 2296 1974 1992 20-38  9019 7971 1025 2092 371 31 324 1225 848 106  997  68  33  99 180  39 42 .262 .335 .439 .773    *2H9/375                             MON-NYM-SFG-LAD
5          Bob Boone 2264 1972 1990 24-42  8148 7245  679 1838 303 26 105  826 663  90  608  20 142  78 191  38 50 .254 .315 .346 .661    *2/H35D7                                 PHI-CAL-KCR
6       Johnny Bench 2158 1967 1983 19-35  8674 7658 1091 2048 381 24 389 1376 891 135 1278  19  11  90 201  68 43 .267 .342 .476 .817   *253H/798                                         CIN
7         Yogi Berra 2120 1946 1965 21-40  8359 7555 1175 2150 321 49 358 1430 704  91  414  52   9  44 146  30 26 .285 .348 .482 .830    *2H79/35                                     NYY-NYM
8      Jason Kendall 2085 1996 2010 22-36  8702 7627 1030 2195 394 35  75  744 721  51  686 254  36  63 176 189 89 .288 .366 .378 .744     *2/H79D                         PIT-OAK-CHC-MIL-KCR
9    A.J. Pierzynski 2059 1998 2016 21-39  7815 7290  807 2043 407 24 188  909 308  68  895 129  28  58 241  15 23 .280 .319 .420 .739       *2H/D                 MIN-SFG-CHW-TEX-STL-BOS-ATL
10    Gabby Hartnett 1990 1922 1941 21-40  7297 6432  867 1912 396 64 236 1179 703   1  697  35     127  93  28  8 .297 .370 .489 .858       *2H/3                                     CHC-NYG
11         Tony Pena 1988 1980 1997 23-40  7073 6489  667 1687 298 27 107  708 455  72  846  23  68  38 234  80 63 .260 .309 .364 .673    *2/H39D5                     PIT-STL-BOS-CLE-HOU-CHW
12     Lance Parrish 1988 1977 1995 21-39  7797 7067  856 1782 305 27 324 1070 612  62 1527  37  23  58 197  28 37 .252 .313 .440 .753    *2D/H397                 DET-PHI-CAL-SEA-CLE-PIT-TOR
13     Yadier Molina 1983 2004 2019 21-36  7655 6970  701 1963 379  7 156  916 507  49  782  66  42  70 254  66 37 .282 .333 .405 .738     *2/3HD5                                         STL
14   Benito Santiago 1978 1986 2005 21-40  7516 6951  755 1830 323 41 217  920 430  52 1270  38  26  70 204  91 69 .263 .307 .415 .722     *2H/37D         SDP-FLA-PHI-TOR-CHC-CIN-SFG-KCR-PIT
15       Brad Ausmus 1971 1993 2010 24-41  7102 6279  718 1579 270 34  80  607 634  69 1034  69  82  37 201 102 53 .251 .325 .344 .669    *2/H3456                             SDP-HOU-DET-LAD
16      Jim Sundberg 1962 1974 1989 23-38  6899 6021  621 1493 243 36  95  624 699  31  963  22 118  38 159  20 37 .248 .327 .348 .674      *2/H7D                             TEX-MIL-KCR-CHC
17          Al Lopez 1950 1928 1947 19-38  6608 5916  613 1547 206 43  51  652 556  55  538  14     121 137  46  9 .261 .326 .337 .663     *2/H543                             BRO-BSN-PIT-CLE
18       Mike Piazza 1912 1992 2007 23-38  7745 6911 1048 2127 344  8 427 1335 759 146 1113  30   0  45 229  17 20 .308 .377 .545 .922      *2DH/3                         LAD-FLA-NYM-SDP-OAK
19      Rick Ferrell 1884 1929 1947 23-41  7076 6028  687 1692 324 45  28  734 931  23  277  10     103  55  29 35 .281 .378 .363 .741        *2/H                                 SLB-BOS-WSH
20    Ernie Lombardi 1853 1931 1947 23-39  6352 5855  601 1792 277 27 190  990 430  50  262  46      18 261   8  4 .306 .358 .460 .818         *2H                             BRO-CIN-BSN-NYG
21      Jorge Posada 1829 1995 2011 23-39  7150 6092  900 1664 379 10 275 1065 936  78 1453  74   1  47 186  20 21 .273 .374 .474 .848     *2DH/34                                         NYY
22       Bill Dickey 1789 1928 1946 21-39  7065 6300  930 1969 343 72 202 1209 678  26  289  31      51  49  36 32 .313 .382 .486 .868         *2H                                         NYY
23    Darrell Porter 1782 1971 1987 19-35  6570 5539  765 1369 237 48 188  826 905 106 1025  45  18  63 102  39 37 .247 .354 .409 .763      *2HD/3                             MIL-KCR-STL-TEX
24    Deacon McGuire 1781 1884 1912 20-48  6938 6291  770 1750 300 79  45  840     515  442  84          47 118  0 .278 .341 .372 .713 *2/395678H1 TOL-DTN-PHI-CLE-ROC-WAS-WHS-BRO-DET-NYY-BOS
25      Bill Freehan 1774 1961 1976 19-34  6900 6073  706 1591 241 35 200  758 626  67  753 114  38  48 138  24 21 .262 .340 .412 .752    *23/HD79                                         DET
26      Rick Dempsey 1765 1969 1992 19-42  5407 4692  525 1093 223 12  96  471 592  13  736  18  63  42 131  20 19 .233 .319 .347 .666  *2H/D97315                     MIN-NYY-BAL-CLE-LAD-MIL
27        Ray Schalk 1762 1912 1929 19-36  6240 5306  579 1345 199 49  11  593     638  358  59         214 177 69 .253 .340 .316 .656        *2/H                                     CHW-NYG
28      Brian McCann 1755 2005 2019 21-35  6850 6067  742 1590 294  5 282 1018 640  71 1054  75   9  59 180  25  9 .262 .337 .452 .789      *2H/D3                                 NYY-HOU-ATL
29      Sherm Lollar 1752 1946 1963 21-38  6220 5351  623 1415 244 14 155  808 671  68  453 115  47  34 184  20 10 .264 .357 .402 .759      *2H/35                             CLE-NYY-SLB-CHW
30    Russell Martin 1693 2006 2019 23-36  6648 5701  803 1416 255  9 191  771 792  46 1211 107  12  36 190 101 51 .248 .349 .397 .746 *2/H5D41679                             LAD-NYY-PIT-TOR
31         Jim Hegan 1666 1941 1960 20-39  5321 4772  550 1087 187 46  92  525 456  79  742   4  72  14 113  15 24 .228 .295 .344 .639        *2/H                         CLE-DET-SFG-PHI-CHC
32       Luke Sewell 1630 1921 1942 20-41  6043 5383  653 1393 272 56  20  698 486   0  307  27     145   1  66 44 .259 .323 .341 .665   *2/H39745                             CLE-WSH-CHW-SLB
33      Steve ONeill 1590 1911 1928 19-36  5566 4795  448 1259 248 34  13  534     592  414  43         130  30 26 .263 .349 .337 .685       *2/H3                             CLE-BOS-NYY-SLB

 


 

Something tells me we're not going to see Maverick Hikers "20 better list" anytime soon.  

 

  • Haha 1

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