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Frobby

A look at the 99 pitchers who made the BA top 100 prospects list, 2008-10

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2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Impressive research once again. 

Thanks.   Alternative thread title: How I killed my weekend.

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This is why I visit OH. Shows how important the second phase of finding serviceable back end SP out of the mid and lower tier prospects actually is. 

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Just now, Frobby said:

Thanks.   Alternative thread title: How I killed my weekend.

You still have the bulk of Sunday.  Don't blow it!

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Good stuff, although technically your 50/50 post was in response to the top 10 position list post, which is a smaller, more elite subset than top 100 prospects and presumably had more success (or at least they did in the one year I looked at).

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Hear hear!

If you now as I imagine have a worksheet of 100 pitchers, with '08, '09, and '10 BA rankings placements and rWAR tallies, I'd be curious to see how those percentages shift around by basket.  To an extent "BA Top 100" prospect is a somewhat broad brush - Clayton Kershaw is nothing like Jon Niese.  I'm guessing success percentages increase fairly sharply as one pushes towards the Top 40, then Top 20, then Top 5 - that's the precipice Rodriguez and Hall are approaching now, as are other possible future Orioles like Hancock, Rocker and Leiter.

This is the year we find out if the current Big Two are going to grow from someone with a ~30% shot to become Front Half of rotation relevant to perhaps a ~75% shot.

And then for our pitching braintrust, there's the job of curating the likes of 9th round picks into Jacob DeGroms.

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3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 Cleveland prospect Adam Miller made the BA top 100 list five years running, was as high as 16 at one point, and reached AAA.    But then he tore a tendon in the middle finger of his pitching hand that required surgery, and he was never the same again.   Sad story, and I'm sure, far from the only case where injuries derailed one of these prospects.

Can he still double barrel flip people off?

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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Can he still double barrel flip people off?

I'm sure, how else is he going to drive?

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4 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

Good stuff, although technically your 50/50 post was in response to the top 10 position list post, which is a smaller, more elite subset than top 100 prospects and presumably had more success (or at least they did in the one year I looked at).

 

4 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

Hear hear!

If you now as I imagine have a worksheet of 100 pitchers, with '08, '09, and '10 BA rankings placements and rWAR tallies, I'd be curious to see how those percentages shift around by basket.  To an extent "BA Top 100" prospect is a somewhat broad brush - Clayton Kershaw is nothing like Jon Niese.  I'm guessing success percentages increase fairly sharply as one pushes towards the Top 40, then Top 20, then Top 5 - that's the precipice Rodriguez and Hall are approaching now, as are other possible future Orioles like Hancock, Rocker and Leiter.

I did in fact create a spreadsheet.     As mentioned, many of the pitchers were on the BA list more than once.    So, I've sorted them into four buckets according to the highest ranking they attained.

BA 1-25:  30 pitchers achieved this level, and that group averaged 12.5 rWAR.     Of the 31 pitchers I categorized as "reliable starters," from this bucket you have four of the No. 1 Studs (Kershaw, Price, Strasburg and Bumgarner), one of the Solid No. 2's (Teheran), two of the Mid-Rotation guys (Buchholz and Porcello) and eight of the Middle/Back of Rotation guys (Bailey, Anderson, Tillman, Cahill, M. Perez, Hellickson, Moore and Wheeler).    So, that's 15 of the 30 who became reliable starting pitchers by my definition.  Two of the Stud Relievers, Davis and Chapman, also came from this bucket.

BA 26-50: 26 pitchers achieved this level and the group averaged 7.3 rWAR.    The group includes one No. 1 Stud (Cueto), four Solid No. 2's (Gonzalez, Carrasco, Zimmermann and Chacin), one Mid-Rotation guy (Kennedy) and three Mid/Back of Rotation guys (Jurrjens, Holland and Gibson).    Nine out of 26 became reliable starters.   Stud reliever Britton also came from this category.

BA 51-75: 23 pitchers reached this level, averaging 6.1 rWAR.   They include one No. 1 Stud (Scherzer), one Solid No. 2 (Arrieta), one Mid-Rotation guy (Leake), and two Mid/Back of Rotation guys (Niese and Cashner).   5 of 23 became reliable starters.

BA 76-100: 20 pitchers were in this bucket.    Only two became reliable starters: Samardzija in the Mid-Rotation category and Jonathan Niese in the Mid/Back of Rotation category.

Hall and Rodriguez both fall into the second bucket for now, though it's possible they could move up in future years.

 

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3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Joba Chamberlain will always have a special place in my heart for his role in the 2014 ALDS.

I cannot ever read his name without picturing his neck swarmed with gnats.  
 

Awesome research Frobby.   The Orioles better not ever hire you away!  

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